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camel at sea

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Posts posted by camel at sea

  1. 49 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:


    To defuse the tension leading into the event. If they have a deal in place, it makes that whole event celebratory and more focused on football

    Assuming the deal is with Apple / the CW / Tubi / etc., they probably want to get through Media Days first before announcing it.  Even if the money is good, they're not going to want to talk about the new media partners.  There's no way for that to come off well.  

    "Coach Lanning, how do you feel about playing games on the CW and do you worry about the possible negative effect that will have with recruits."  You don't want football guys having to talk about that.  Save that for ADs and admins.  

  2. 2 hours ago, Hairy Biped said:

    Didn't their AD say something along the lines of whether it's the PAC or the Big 12, they had a spot just a couple months ago?  If so, wow at how they overestimated things.  

    He'll probably end up being right.  It seems more likely to me, than not, that at least one PAC schools eventually jumps ship at some point in the next month or two.  SDSU will be first in line to be invited when that happens.  

  3. If OU beats UW back in '84, they probably get a beauty pageant win over BYU in the polls.  The Sooners finished the '84 regular season with back to back top 3 wins.  A one loss OU with a much tougher schedule probably gets the nod there and Switzer had politicked it hard.  If Washington plays BYU that year, instead of OU, then even if they beat BYU, the narrative would have been that BYU was a fraud. OU - who was ranked ahead of UW - would have just needed to win the Orange Bowl against someone else to win the title.  Just about anyone else who might have slotted into that game would have been worse than UW.

    There was a pretty good chance that OU would have jumped BYU even if BYU had played and beaten UW, so long as OU racked up another Top 10 win in the Orange Bowl.  

    Switzer had politicked so much going into bowl season that he made a bunch of BYU folks extremely angry.  They named a sewage treatment plant after him in retaliation. 

    https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1985-12-31-sp-26324-story.html

     

     

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  4. 13 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

    Its a long shot for Boise and UNLV to join or its a long shot for the Pac to win over those two?   I can see it either way!

    If they're down to inviting UNLV/Boise, then it this a situation where Oregon State and Washington State are the only two left?  

  5. 19 minutes ago, jTower said:

    Probably true, but the original plan A for the SEC was to add Texas and UNC, not aggy and Mizzou.

    I think UNC - if they want to leave - will need to latch themselves onto someone who brings enough value to pay the way in for them.  Texas is now off the board for that role.  Maybe they can lean on ND or FSU.

    Alternatively, UNC might also see a future for the ACC that looks like the new Big 12.  If/when the big football brands go, the Tar Heels can be the biggest hoops brand in a conference that is good enough in football to pay the bills, but not good enough to pay out SECish money.  That might be fine with them.  They get to run a league, play all the local teams that they care about, and keep their focus and energy on basketball and Olympics.      

  6. 3 hours ago, jTower said:

    Big 12 Commissioner Will Eye Two Additions to Replace Oklahoma, Texas in 2024

     

    The Big 12 has officially expanded to 14 teams with the additions of BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF, but it won’t stay that way for long. After this year, they’ll return to 12 teams once Oklahoma and Texas depart for the SEC. Despite the recent shakeup, Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark wants the conference to stay at 14 teams, hinting that it could once again expand. 

    “I’d like to stay at 14 [teams] even with the departure of Texas and Oklahoma, candidly,” Yormark told Spencer Linton of BYU Sports Nation. “We’ll see if that’s a possibility or not. But I love 12.” 

    Yormak brining it to the PACX

     

    It's hard to see how the Big 12 takes 2 from the PAC, and stops at taking only 2 from the PAC.

    Maybe the play is to try to skip over ASU/Utah and bring in UO/UW as #15/#16.  

  7. 4 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

    Thats kind of how I'd measure it, like a Q-score.   When Nebraska sucks balls, they're still pulling in similar numbers to Oregon when at their best.

    I'd have to see the receipts on this.  I think Oregon is beating them pretty decisively in a lot of areas.  Even if NU gets back to 9-10 wins per, I don't know if they'll climb into the Top 10 on the recruiting trail.  Oregon has leveraged Nike, location, facilities, NIL, etc, to land a couple Top 10 classes in recent years.  

    It's not like Oregon has been winning at an extra elite level lately.  Their 2014 CFP trip was their only CFP trip and that will be nine seasons ago in August.  They've only won the PAC twice since then, and one of those was the COVID year. 

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  8. 25 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

    I'm discussing brands, not how well some teams do in big games or when they're good.  At 6-6 more people will still watch Texas or Michigan than will tune into Aurburn or FSU or Clemson.    Oregon's brand is growing but it is not in that top tier.

    Nebraska has fucking blown for decades, but they still carry more brand power than Oregon.     

    When consolidating for regular seasons, you want brands.   Viewers will come.

    How would you measure a brand power battle between Oregon and Nebraska?  

    TV audience?  Appeal to recruits?  Merch sales?  Ticket prices for an opponent when they visit?  NU has been irrelevant for nearly all of the adult years of U.S. millennials and they've been a total non-factor for the entire lives of Gen Z.  

  9. 1 hour ago, USC Traveler said:

    ND is the only slam-dunk based on ratings alone, but when you factor everything else in, I think FSU, Miami, UNC, UVA are slamdunks also.

    Everything else consists of tv markets, recruiting of athletes and regular students, BIG alums in the area (for fundraising off games), and academic status.

    FL, VA, and NC are states the BIG is going to prioritize because the BIG schools have a fundamental problem- they are all located in states that are either losing population or growing very slowly.  Being able to recruit students from the Southeast is huge for the BIG long-term.

    FSU is on the way to becoming AAU, and close enough that the BIG would take them in a heartbeat.

    //

    Clemson is an interesting case.  They recently put out a huge strategic plan to upgrade academics to become AAU.  Along with FSU, they bring the best tv ratings outside of anyone not named ND who isn't in the BIG/SEC in 2024, so they would bring real value.

    Culturally, they're an SEC school, but there's no guarantee UGA, UF, Bama would want them in the conference, just like FSU.  There's a good chance Clemson and FSU can't get the votes to join the SEC, as they'd be much tougher to recruit against in the SEC.  Why would Kirby or Saban want to legitimize them as competitors by bringing them into the SEC ?

    If Clemson can't get the SEC invite, I could see the BIG adding them as part of a bigger package of ACC schools, with "academic progress" towards becoming AAU deemed good enough for membership, especially if they're coming in with UVA, UNC and Miami.

    Notre Dame is obviously the school to keep the closest eye on.  They haven't extended their NBC deal yet, they hired an NBC Sports guy to be AD, and the Big Ten schools just got them an AAU invite - despite the Irish being outside the Top 100 nationally in R&D output.  It feels like there are things happening behind the scenes.  

    The expansion situation surrounding the Irish is hard to read.  Warren mentioned other PAC schools as targets, by name, and I think the President at Northwestern mentioned travel concerns with the L.A. schools being on an island.  The three PAC schools that help the "travel" concerns most would be Stanford, Cal, and ASU - the last of which just coincidentally (?) got an AAU invite.

    https://247sports.com/college/ucla/Article/Big-Ten-realignment-Northwestern-president-not-really-thrilled-w-210657008/

    Theoretically, if the Big Ten added ND, Stanford, Cal, and ASU, they could seriously limit travel issues for existing members and help the two L.A. schools in that regard, at the same time.  I don't know if ND actually pays those expansion bills, but we know there is an escalator in the B1G contract for ND already in place.  Adding western inventory could bring ESPN back to the table for the late kick games, so who knows.  

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  10. 2 hours ago, bullet said:

    SMU is not like TCU and Baylor.  They are the Vanderbilt wannabes who didn’t have the grades. 

    When Larry Brown had their basketball team in the Top 25 for two or three years, they were selling out for basketball and those games had a good environment.  I think they'd be front-runners for football, too.  But I'll admit I have no proof of concept for that belief because they've never put together a multiple-season stretch of good football to test it out.    Not since the death penalty, anyway.

  11. 3 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

    The only way I'd be cool with SMU joining the Big 12 is if someone made a documentary about their fans travelling to Morgantown, Ames, Manhattan, Stillwater, etc for games.  I have a feeling watching them try to mingle with those crowds would be pure comedy.

    They'd just be a third version of TCU and Baylor.  The big drawback with the Ponies is that they haven't experienced the extended period of winning that grew the fanbases in Ft. Worth and Waco.  They probably need to have a stretch of double digit win seasons before they can get their bandwagon going and that stretch of success is very unlikely to happen in either the current PAC or the Big 12.  They need to take advantage of being in the depleted AAC and grab some conference titles and expanded CFP trips.

  12. 49 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

     

    They hired their new AD away from NBC Sports.  They just got an AAU invite despite not having the research metrics to justify it. 

    Maybe that Big Ten leap is coming soon.  If so, then it'll be interesting to see who comes with them.  Stanford makes some sense and could go right away.  USF and Miami each getting an AAU invite might be tea leaves worth reading into, also.        

  13. 11 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

    I have no idea how they're getting close to B1G numbers when they lack Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and USC, literally four Top Ten teams in terms of consistent viewership.   

    Twitter has been buzzing about the Canzano article today talking up SMU like its just coming off back to back natties.  Apparently their NIL set up would be the second largest in the PAC and on top of giving up revenue, they're paying the PAC's debt.

    All the while, everything else has gone very quiet.

    They can't *really* get to B1G numbers, but they can definitely put some highly unrealistic "if... then" clauses into that contract.  The media guys will push the unrealistic possibilities and it'll force those who want to exit to explain to those that don't, that the deal's numbers, as per the PAC friendly media, aren't real.

    "Why would we leave when we're going to get $55M per?"
    "We aren't."
    "It says here in the Canzano article that we are..."


    The SMU thing is interesting because it's exactly what the PAC needs.  They need more inventory but they need that extra inventory to not be distributed into more slices (since that overcomes the benefit of the additional inventory.) SMU Is the kind of place that might sign off on something like that for a year.  If the Ponies ever get their foot back into the P5 door, they'll take advantage.  Their donors have been ready for the NIL era for forty years.        

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  14. 3 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

    I think the dream dies with Knight. I’m sure he’ll leave a shit ton of money to the school, but foundation money isn’t as liquid as pocket money.

    Also 2024 recruits are going to start wondering why they’re not in the Big Ten in a couple years. 

    He set up a big NIL operation, too.  They're gonna be fine financially.  

    The conference situation is a real problem, but I think their worst case scenario is that they keep something like status quo (outside a Top 2 conference, but selling Nike, facilities, conference titles, CFPs, etc.)  

  15. 1 hour ago, Jabberwocky said:

    They are essentially Oklahoma State with a much bigger lottery payday. Those uniforms and facility upgrades will only cover that up for so long.

    Once that recruiting money dries up, the viewership will normalize as well.

    The lottery payday at Oregon will keep working in their favor for decades.  Their AD isn't in any danger of being poor even after Phil Knight passes.  Nike HQ is probably not relocating, so the favored nation status that Oregon has with Nike will almost certainly continue long into the future.  

  16. It will take a couple decades of neglect for Oregon to fall behind in the facilities arms race.  Phil Knight put them in a position where all they need to do is maintain and they've got other big donors (even if none of them are on Phil Knight's level.)  They're arguably the top brand in the PAC NW.  They're probably the top brand in CFB without a title (bigger than some who do have a title.)  They're Top 10 in win % nationally over the last 30 years.  They've won under multiple HC's.  

    I think some of you guys are working a little too hard to return their program to the 70s and 80s.    

     

     

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  17. 13 hours ago, CustersDoctor said:

    Big18 Three Divisions

    WEST: UW, UA, AST, UU, UO, BYU

    NORTH: KST, CINCY, WVU, IST, CU, UK

    SOUTH: TECH, OKST, TCU, BU, UH, UCF.

    9 conference games. You play five divisional games, play one North school at home and one on the road, one West school at home and one on the road. So in the six years of the contract you'll play all 6 North schools once at home and once on the road and all 6 West schools once at home and once on the road.

    I think this is the right concept.  I'd probably tweak the division alignment a little bit.  

    West:  UW, UO, UU, BYU, UA, ASU
    Central:  UH, BU, TCU, TTU, OSU, CU (throws CU a recruiting bone for splitting with the West schools)
    Misc.:  KU, KSU, ISU, Cincy, WVU, UCF

    A 1-8-8 model would cycle through the conference more efficiently but in the Big 12's case I don't see that as an obvious positive.  I think they'd be better off preserving some regionality to limit travel and keep fan interest higher.  Assuming you had two games (one home, one away) from each of the other two divisions, you'd cycle through the whole league once every six years.  

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  18. 19 minutes ago, Trojan Man said:

    I think if the Big 12 can land the 4C that almost forces Oregon and Washington to ask if they can tag along too.  The Pac 6 would be a tremendously shitty conference.  No matter which G5 teams you add it basically becomes Oregon and Washington running a train on a bunch of nobodies.  That's not worth much to media partners or the CFP committee.  Even if those two bully the rest of that zombie conference into a big enough split of uneven revenue sharing to get themselves on par with the Big 12's payout their reputation with recruits and brand value will take a beating playing in a glorified MWC.  Why go through all that bullshit when the Big 12 is available?  Big 12 + Oregon, Washington and 2 or all 4 of the 4C would be a legit conference that gets an at large CFP bid or two every year and a top 4 seed every year.  Zombie Pac 6 would never sniff an at large bid and even a top 4 seed is unlikely.

    From the Big 12's perspective I get they don't want to deal with members who have wandering eyes after all the realignment drama they have been through, but Oregon and Washington raise the profile of their conference in a way no other team they can land would and probably gets the Big 12 a raise on their media contract.  Even if it is a short marriage before the B1G comes calling years I think the Big 12 will be better for it, plus all parties would be going into this marriage knowing it's likely to be short.  The Big 12 wouldn't be blindsided like they were in past rounds of realignment so maybe both sides can negotiate a palatable exit strategy ahead of time that pays off the remaining Big 12 teams without bankrupting Oregon and Washington.  There's a good chance the B1G isn't looking at the Pacific Northwest until after things with the ACC play out in about 13 years, which is a long enough time to make Big 12 invitations to Oregon and Washington worthwhile.

    If the Big 12 has an option to get UO and UW, they have to take them.  They add too much not to take them.  And I don't think those two can stay in the PAC if the 4C leave.  The 4C would be leaving due to a bad rights deal, and that deal would not get better with MWC/AAC backfill.  

    The media smoke on the Big Ten's interest in the PAC NW has been mixed, but the impression I get is that the LA. schools do not want them coming along.  That probably matters at least a little bit.  Maybe those two would be more okay with Stanford joining if/when ND does.

     

  19. 33 minutes ago, thunderlounge said:

    4C sure, but I’m not sold on them taking UO/UW.

     

    It comes down to whether the Ducks and Huskies have an invite to the Big Ten.  They can't stay in a PAC that lacks a competitive media deal and that just lost the 4C.  If there is no B1G invite, where else are they going to go?  

  20. 5 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

    22.5 is really bad. 25 is bad.

    In comparison, the Big 12 was at 22 and moved to 31.7. So the best case is 6+M behind per year with the gap only getting worse. I can see 28 keeping schools there, but 22.5 or 25 is just not going to cut it.

    If those are the numbers that get presented, I think the "Big 12 adds six from the PAC" option (4C + UO/UW) has to be on the table.  Everyone who can get out will try to get out.

    That would be an unbelievable bounce-back for the Big 12.  Competitively at least, they'd often be #1 in men's basketball and pushing for #2 in football in a lot of years.  

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  21. 2 hours ago, Trojan Man said:

    Larry Scott was behind the Pac 12 trying to get into Asia and it accomplished nothing.  This is the kind of thing that sounds great on paper but goes nowhere in practice.  The Pac 12 should not pursue his failed ideas.  As for Hawaii their new stadium won't be built for years.  They're having trouble with funding and everything there moves on Hawaiian time.  They are aiming for a 2027 completion date but I'd be surprised if they built it before the end of this decade.  Even if it was somehow built on time you can't have a league member hosting games on a practice field for a few years.  They're in the same category as South Florida: schools that picked a very bad time to neglect football and facilities because they probably cost themselves a callup to the big leagues.

    I've heard a pretty interesting theory on why Colorado recruited better in the Big 12 than they have in the Pac 12, and it's not just because they were complete dogshit their entire time in the Pac 12 while they had some success in the Big 12.  When Colorado was battling Big 12 schools for a recruit from Big 12 territory Boulder was a much more unique place than most Big 12 towns.  They were the only mountain town in a conference of plains schools which would stick out during visits, especially for recruits who have never spent much time in the mountains.  In the Pac 12 Boulder isn't even the only mountain town (there's Salt Lake City if you want to live in the mountains and play for a competent football program), plus there are mountains nearby most of the other schools in the conference so there goes the uniqueness.  If you're recruiting a kid from California he's much more likely to have spent time in the mountains and not be as impressed by that like a kid from Iowa might be.

    I agree that the Asia push seems dumb, but I have not read anywhere that the PAC presidents don't like it.  Flying over to Shanghai or Tokyo seems like the sort of thing that academic types would love.  If so, then that push probably continues whether Larry Scott is in charge or not.  Just about the only way to grow their audience is to find a new one.  The Big 12 is doing something similar by going after Mexican audiences.  I went back and looked at the Hawaii stadium news after your post.  Three weeks ago, they announced a 2028 completion date target, with $400M already appropriated by the governor for it.  The stuff I'd read before had completion targeted for 2026.  Either way, I guess Hawaii is still ahead of *most* of their other G5 peers in the facilities process but is probably not far enough along to be a very short term expansion option, unless the PAC fully implodes.  I don't know about how things work in Hawaii but maybe skepticism is warranted until they finish the project.  The overall plan sounds really good, though, with the stadium surrounded by an almost $2B entertainment district.     

     

    I fully agree with the theory about Colorado recruiting the Big 12 vs. recruiting against the PAC.  Selling Texas kids on scenery is easier than selling CA kids on it.  I think Coach Prime could do very well on the recruiting trail in the Big 12.   

  22. 25 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

    Awkward Jay Z GIF by Complex - Find & Share on GIPHY

    Yormark is a northeastern guy.  He keeps talking up how basketball is undervalued, he wants the Big 12 playing in Madison Square Garden, etc.  I'm not saying I agree with the strategy but I think that's what they're after.

  23. 36 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

    Maybe, but why the hold up? 

    CU was much better when recruiting TX. I'm surprised their people haven't already done the analytics, if that's their biggest concern. I haven't looked at their old rosters, but I remember them pulling blue chips like Alfred Williams and Kanavis McGhee out of Houston.

    CU's academic side (faculty / admins) would rather be in the PAC, rubbing elbows with Stanford, Cal, etc.  CU's west coast donors probably still prefer that, too, though not as strongly as they did before SC/UCLA left.  

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