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camel at sea

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Posts posted by camel at sea

  1. 23 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

    Assuming Colorado and Zona bolt, seems most likely.   At that point though are you better off with Boise or CSU or Fresno?  Or hell, do you elevate and invest in Fullerton, who has like 35-40k students, in Orange county to get more SoCal?

    Id not want to be in their shoes if UC/AC leave, because I doubt the rest will stick together fully.

    Yeah.  I think they could probably survive a Colorado for SDSU trade.  If they have to find a second backfill option, they're probably looking at a mass exodus unless the Big 12 and Big Ten tell the rest who want to jump ship that they aren't invited.    

    If there's a lot of movement out west, I kind of expect to see one or two California-based FCS schools moving up to the MWC.      

    • Hook 'Em 1
  2. 3 hours ago, DFW Horn said:

    Does CU move to the Big 12 for only a $4MM guaranteed bump annually?

    Doubtful

    It's not just about the money.  It's about the media exposure.  If the path to getting within the vicinity of the Big 12's payout means streaming exclusively, or playing on the CW, then I think they jump.  They've already been damaged badly, for a decade, by the PAC 12 Network's invisibility.  

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  3. 1 hour ago, FartingDreamer said:

    Hawaii doesn't have a basketball program so I'm not sure if that would be a factor in considering them, though for football they would make some sense.  

    I think Hawaii would be a football only add.  The PAC could pair them with Gonzaga for basketball and Olympics.  This might not be backfill Plan A or Plan B, but it could definitely be Plan C.

    Hawaii has good enough academics to not embarrass the Bay Area schools too much, a new stadium on the way, a decent recruiting turf, and a relatively good/well-known football brand.  They also give the PAC more/better opportunities for marketing in Asia.  They've been making a push into Asia already and I doubt it stops.  https://pac-12.com/global

    Travel is the big concern with them, but that's not as much of an issue if they're football only.    

  4. Reading the tea leaves, it looks like 1) the Big 12 is not interested in SDSU right now, and 2) the PAC's interest is contingent on someone else (Colorado) leaving first.  I'm curious as to who is holding down the #2 spot in the PAC backfill plan.  It's most likely SMU, but Colorado State and Hawaii make some sense, too.  

  5. 6 hours ago, bullet said:

    Blue and Gold dude died. The Dude of West Virginia is alive and well.  After all, Christopher Lambert (his real name-or so he claims) is immortal!

    Unless one of the other WVU mountain highland guys takes his head, and with it, his power.  

    There can be only one.

    • Haha 3
  6. OU was probably the one leading the SEC move initially.  OU's Tier 3 deal is the one that was up so they had the reason to start the rights talks.  OU was pissed at its old Tier 3 partner, FOX, over the constant 11 a.m. kickoffs.  Castiglione took a public shot at FOX when the '21 OU-NU kickoff time was announced.  OU had basically begged FOX behind the scenes not to choose that game for "Big Noon" or to kick it later, due to the alumni events associated with the 50th anniversary of the "Game of the Century."  FOX told OU to pound sand.  That was just the latest in a long list of OU grievance over that issue.  "Big Noon" did not exist when OU signed its deal with the Big 12, so the Big 12 and the media side were disingenuous when they kept slamming OU with the "you signed the deal" stuff.  I'd guess that when OU approached ESPN about Tier 3, the topic of switching leagues came up with it.  From there, OU calls UT and the two start making plans.  The SEC was the move that made the most sense, both for the recruiting benefits that would come with it, and the ease it would present for folding the LHN into the SECN.  I'm sure UT and OU both wanted to be in the room while the SEC hashed out its own NIL policy.  

    OSU didn't pitch a big fit in the legislature b/c the Big 12 was given assurances by the media partners about its future pretty quickly, and before the situation could devolve in that direction.  ESPN/FOX both signed off on the 4 team expansion.  I assume that the 4 team expansion was done with some preliminary discussions over the terms of the next rights agreement, too.  

    All in all, this is going to end up a great outcome for everyone.  A few Big 12 schools are going to win at a higher level than they ever have, play in better TV windows than they ever have, etc., while still making really good money.  UT and OU will be in a conference of peer athletic departments for the first time, ticket values will go up, donations will go up, etc.  

    • Hook 'Em 5
  7. 29 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

    Haha good luck buddy. Camel at sea and the Okie State dudes are about to hit you you with some charts. 

    Lol.  I've just said repeatedly that as long as Texans and Okies watch college football, the viewership for the new Big 12 will be pretty good.  This just gets confusing for some fans, and the topic keeps coming up repeatedly, because a lot of people haven't updated their perception of the schools around them since the 1980s.  

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  8. 18 hours ago, USC Traveler said:

    Yeah- that's why I'm looking for either massive success or abject failure from Grinch this year.

    I want him to either prove me wrong or fail badly enough that Riley has no choice but to fire him and bring in an elite DC.

    Hopefully the new DC will be able to influence some of the other aspects of the program.

    If Wylie is a big of a problem as folks in Norman say he is (I haven't been able to judge yet either way), it will show that first season in the BIG.

    But I haven't been able to get a good read on S&C issues when Grinch is playing a scheme that leaves huge gaps to run through on every play because he's dropping his best DL 10 yards off the LOS.

    Or when he lines up 3 DL and 5 DBs on 3rd and goal from the 2 against a Utah team with a physical running QB in Rising.

    Or when he plays Zero Coverage up 10 points with less than 2 minutes left in the game and gives up a quick TD.

    I could go on and on from just one season, so I can only imagine your list of Grinch's incompetence, Camel.😂

     

    Side note- How do you think the soft S&C program helps in recruiting ?  I would think it would hurt recruiting.

    Grinch and Wylie together are a nightmare because Grinch's scheme (among its many other problems) prefers small quick guys on the DL and Wylie's regime produces softness and a lack of discipline.  Small guys not playing tough up front is a recipe for failure.  Add to that, even if he's lucked into talented guys on the DL who are also very self-motivated, Grinch rotates them out so much that they aren't making the impact for you that they should.  His last defense at OU had five NFL draft picks in the starting 11 and they were still awful.  The whole scheme is predicated on forcing TOs, but in a game where DBs or LBs drops INT opportunities, you give up 40-50 points and need your QB to be Caleb Williams caliber good.

    I think Wylie helps in recruiting because he's good at connecting with guys and being their friend.  Recruits meet him and leave talking about how much they liked him.  The parents, too.  The problem is that at good programs, you don't want your S&C coach to be a player-friendly coach.  They need to be respected, feared, and kind of hated.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  9. 20 minutes ago, Trojan Man said:

    My plausible dream scenario for Grinch is he improves the defense to the 50s overall range, which should be enough to make the playoff with Riley's offense, and some AD decides to make him their head coach.  With the portal and recruiting reinforcements I think that's a doable goal.  USC gets a CFP appearance with a QB capable of carrying a team to the title, the defense shows enough improvement to start tamping down the "USC doesn't play defense" narrative and Riley has to hire a new DC without the bad press of firing a DC.

    This could be copy/pasted from an OU board during Riley's tenure in Norman.  I think the hidden problem with Riley is that Bennie Wylie is running his S&C program.  Riley seems married to a soft S&C philosophy, which helps in recruiting, but hurts LOS play, defense generally, and team discipline generally.  It also repels good DCs from wanting to work for him.

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  10. I'm starting to see some media leaks indicating that Yormark doesn't have internal support for Gonzaga.  If they can get UConn, Arizona, and Colorado, I don't think they get much extra from the Zags.  

    They could park at 15 full members and see what transpires with the ACC down the road. 

     

  11. 14 hours ago, FartingDreamer said:

    I think many are underselling the potential of U of Houston.  Houston is literally one of the most talent-rich urban areas in the nation and UH can create dominant programs by sticking within its region.   Houston is that talent-rich.  Hopefully we are able to tap into it (no pun intended).

    UH used to have a long list of things holding them back from sustainable athletics success (dysfunctional admin, bad academics, bad facilities, lack of on-campus housing, lack of donor money, lack of fan support generally.)  Over the last 15-20 years, they've been addressing all of that.  Between their excellent University President and Tilman Fertitta's money, they've come a long way.  The last big hurdle is fan support for football and it's also probably going to be the hardest one to clear.  Getting into the Big 12 will help a lot, though.

     

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  12. 11 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

    Yes it would because they wont get a media deal with only 8 schools. Plus, Oregon and Washington are making zero attempts to disguise the fact that they are gone the first chance they get. There will be no GOR signed for more than a year if CU and Arizona leave.

    I don't know if that's necessarily true.  1) It's a certainty that the PAC and its prospective partners are talking about contingency expansion plans already, and 2) I don't know how much Apple would actually care about trading Zona and CU for SDSU and Colorado St. or SMU.  My guess is that the PAC commissioner plus the admins at WSU and Oregon St would all be leaking to the press that they anticipated this and still have a deal in the works.  

  13. 2 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

    Afternoon tweetering:

     

     

    Scheer's tweet meshes with the Torres tweet upthread. Assuming they're both right, then the plan for the Big 12 is 1) Colorado + UConn, followed by 2) Arizona + SDSU or Gonzaga.   Maybe Memphis gets into the discussion (per the reports that they're talking with the Big 12) if the PAC gets both SDSU and Gonzaga.

    This scenario could mean Oregon and Washington don't move in this cycle.  If the "Big Ten doesn't want the PAC's blood on its hands" reports are true, then I doubt the Big 12 taking CU and Zona is enough to spare the Big Ten that perception.  

     

      

  14. 1 hour ago, LTbear said:

    Just for the sake of argument: trying to get as far of a reach/ capture interest in as many new markets as possible.

    Yeah.  The Big 12 could have member flags planted in San Diego, Texas, Orlando, and Connecticut.

  15. 45 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

    Ditto, all i can assume is it has to do with games in MSG, UConn isn't in the market, but they have a big NYC following.

    Maybe its also to offer Zona more basketball bluebloods

    Regardless, unless Uconn is agreeing to overspend on football for a while, its a whole lot of strange

    UConn agreeing to overspend on football for a while isn't far-fetched.  That school has money.  They're also arguably the premier program in men's basketball currently, with 5 natties since '99.  Dan Hurley is young, too, so they could keep things rolling for a while if they can afford to keep him (Big 12 money > Big East money in that respect.) 

    My assumption is that the Big 12 is aggressively pursuing expansion with the blessing of its media partners.  Somehow an expanded Big 12 saves ESPN/FOX money.  Getting enough PAC inventory into the Big 12 that ESPN can 1) not bid on that PAC contract, and 2) continue airing "After Dark" inventory makes sense to that end.  The Big 12 expands, makes money, and its partners save money by paying for the inventory of fewer overall schools.  Maybe FOX and/or ESPN intend to shuffle east cost inventory in a similar way, for similar reason.

    BC, Wake, Duke, etc., could be facing a Stanford/Cal/Washington State-ish future.       

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  16. 10 minutes ago, Park Gothic said:

    UConn just doesn't make sense to me. The closest Big 12 school is WVU, approximately 500 miles away, and WVU is already on an island. It's also a terrible fit culturally and for non-basketball sports. I get that Yormark wants the premier basketball league but it is seems like such a bad idea in every other respect. My only thought is that maybe he's using the threat of adding UConn to encourage another school (like ASU or Arizona) to jump in? 

    Who knows.  I guess if you thought Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville were going to come loose, at some point, maybe they fill in the map for you a little bit and address the geography concerns UConn might cause.  I don't see how that helps make sense of the financial situation, unless he knows something nobody else does about the future monetization of the NCAA tourney. 

    I understand the logic of threatening Arizona with a lost spot unless they go ahead and move, but I think the Big 12 can just wait PAC options out at this point.  I don't see that they need to create a lot of smoke to shake anyone loose.  The PAC's media rights situation should do that on its own.  

     

  17. 20 hours ago, Jabberwocky said:

     

    If the UConn stuff is serious, then it has to include football.  I guess if you're a huge league, you need some football bottom feeders to provide wins for everyone else, and if that program is elite in men's hoops, all the better.  That doesn't make media money materialize, though.

    There's no getting around the fact that Colorado and UConn have been two of the worst FBS football programs for the last decade.  ESPN has a pro rata deal with the Big 12 for P5 adds.  FOX doesn't.  So either FOX gets to direct expansion choices to some extent, with that leverage, or BY has another partner in mind who is ready to bid on new Big 12 inventory that FOX won't bid on.  Maybe Amazon wants to dip its toes into the college athletics space.  

     

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  18. 20 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

    So the guy hasn't coached a game yet for Colorado and he's calling the shots for what conference they'll be in?

    He might not even be there anymore when they make the move.

    Alternatively, CU's admins want to make the move and Coach Prime is a good shield for the admins to hide behind if criticism starts pouring in.  

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  19. On 5/27/2023 at 3:18 PM, bullet said:

    Is de la Torre worried the Pac-12 might by a Pac-4 by the time they get there?..."

    It says something, I think, that this was published by a San Diego media outlet.  But unless or until the Utah media guys start dialing the pro-PAC rhetoric back, I'll believe there is a chance SDSU gets a Big 12 invite before the Utes do.  Local media and university leaders at Colorado and the Arizona schools have at least hedged somewhat.  The stuff I've seen publicly from the Utah people sounds like they want to go down with the ship.    

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  20. 3 hours ago, 'stache said:

    They are being considered for basketball only like Gonzaga.

    I can't imagine UConn coming for hoops only.  They're already in a really strong basketball conference, where they have history, and much better travel.  The only carrot the big 12 has that might lure them in is football membership.  

  21. 1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

    I didn't realize BYU has been an independent since 2011. If anything the new Big 12 will be interesting to see how BYU plays with others. 

    Off the top of my head, baseball is the only major sport played regularly on Sunday. I assume the conference will have to use a double header for every single BYU series? 

    I'd guess BYU baseball will be scheduled Th-Sat during conference play.  That won't be a big deal, other than possibly interfering with the ability to schedule a midweek game.  

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