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So_co

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Posts posted by So_co

  1. 1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

    Pull up a chair and stay a while.  You always backed up your opinions with facts and a lot of us enjoyed the discussion and your perspective, even - maybe especially when we disagreed. 

    Right back at ya.  You nailed the analysis on this one.  Worked out just about exactly how you were thinking.  Good luck next year, and hopefully we'll meet up in a playoff / championship some day.

  2. 11 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

    Holy shit what a monumental pussy you are. When you posted it was a 2 score game with 4 min left. Score stop score. When has that ever happened before? 2005. Frome is pretty fucking far from VY but have some self respect and wait till after game. 

    Even if UGA had pulled this out, that wouldn't negate the ass whooping that preceded it. 

  3. 3 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

    My big worry in this game, actually, is that Georgia has the right attitude to hit back. Texas under Herman has learned to be more physical than whoever they are playing, and that has borne a lot of fruit, but Georgia is the first team we are playing that is both talented and physical. Usually it's one or the other.

    It will certainly be interesting.

    Two illuminating points about the Dawgs and physical play:

    1. Kirby's motto for the team is "Make their asses quit"

    2. Fromm after a win vs USCjr early in the year, was quoted with this, "Somebody had to pay for the preparation we do and today that somebody was South Carolina”

     

    I could see both of those things coming out of the Texas camp too.

  4. 35 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    Also the SEC has a bunch of really bad offenses, compounded by the fact that they schedule so many absolute cupcakes in non-conf that the stats are badly skewed.

    Take Georgia's rushing.  6.1 YPC overall.  5.6 YPC when you discount Austin Peay, Middle TN and UMass. 

    Here's a better way to look at it.  

    D'Andre Swift conference games only averaged 6.90 yards per carry

    Elijah Holyfield conference games only averaged 5.91 yards per carry

     

    These numbers mean more because they cut out the weaker games as you noted, but also only include carries where the game was on the line and not when the third, fourth, and fifth stringers were salting away the game.  

    • Like 1
  5. So, back to the original intent of this thread.  I played around with the Pro Football Focus grades that were posted earlier in this thread, and did a little manipulation in excel to sort by Overall Grade for the combined teams.  I took out the more situational players that had not played over around ~200 snaps.  Here's the defensive side of the ball.  (I'll put the offensive side in the other thread)

     

    INTERIOR DEFENSIVE LINE
                   
      Player Overall Grade Run Defense Snaps Pass Rush Snaps Coverage Snaps Run Defense Grade Tackling Pass Rush Grade Coverage Grade
    Jr. Tyler Clark 83.7 143 183 0 87.8 75.7 68 n/a
    Fr. Jordan Davis (Questionable) 77.9 148 106 0 80 69.4 61.9 n/a
    Soph. Devonte Wyatt 72.3 84 118 0 77.7 71 59.4 n/a
    Sr. Chris Nelson 70.5 282 361 10 81.1 67.5 55.6 51.1
    Jr. Julian Rochester 66.4 201 219 1 65.7 76.1 62.9 60.8
    Jr. Michael Barnett 62.8 125 104 0 66.8 60.9 54.6 n/a
    Jr. Gerald Wilbon 61.1 99 118 2 63.1 48.7 60.1 65.1

     

    DEFENSIVE END/EDGE RUSHER
                   
      Player Overall Grade Run Defense Snaps Pass Rush Snaps Coverage Run Defense Grade Tackling Pass Rush Grade Coverage Grade
    Soph. Malik Herring 85.6 110 118 0 80.5 83.3 79 n/a
    Sr. Jonathan Ledbetter 82.5 170 224 0 87.2 80.6 67.4 n/a
    Sr. D'Andre Walker 81.9 221 252 36 79.8 75.8 75.7 75.7
    Sr. Charles Omenihu 77.7 210 279 1 77.1 68.4 71 64.9
    Fr. Brenton Cox 74 104 118 11 69.3 83.9 68.9 79.6
    Jr. Malcolm Roach 65.1 122 133 50 79.4 55 57.4 49.7
    Sr. Breckyn Hager 62.5 267 302 36 70.1 52.1 60.9 57.2
    Soph. Ta'Quon Graham 57.7 139 148 3 62.8 48.1 57.7 53.6

     

    LINEBACKER
                     
      Player Overall Grade Run Defense Snaps Pass Rush Snaps Coverage Run Defense Grade Tackling Pass Rush Grade Coverage Grade
    Jr. Tae Crowder 74.6 173 9 142 60 73.1 78.4 84
    Soph. Monty Rice 73.6 124 18 120 75.9 87 60.6 67.2
    Sr. Gary Johnson 71.3 336 157 334 83.8 90.2 74.9 49.4
    Sr. Juwan Taylor 70.1 184 45 227 68.6 78 65.3 69.2
    Soph. Walter Grant 67.7 140 52 39 73.6 77.5 58 61.8
    Jr. Jeffrey McCulloch 66.7 219 109 152 67.7 63.4 59.8 66.7
    Sr. Anthony Wheeler 64.8 373 112 402 66.6 87 56.4 64.2
    Sr. Natrez Patrick 56.5 182 22 147 66.8 43.1 71.8 41.2

     

    CORNERBACK
                     
      Player Overall Grade Run Defense Snaps Pass Rush Snaps Coverage Run Defense Grade Tackling Pass Rush Grade Coverage Grade
    Sr. Kris Boyd 80.2 384 9 536 89.8 82.7 76.7 78.5
    RS Fr. Eric Stokes 79.1 143 3 182 68.4 76.7 54.7 81.4
    Sr. Davante Davis 78.6 275 1 397 79.2 70.3 59.6 76.9
    Soph. Mark Webb 73.2 59 3 149 69 87.6 56.1 74.3
    Fr. Tyson Campbell 69.9 229 5 276 77.1 90 55.6 67.5
    Jr. Tyrique McGhee 65.9 196 17 277 85.9 65.2 62 59.8
    Sr. P.J. Locke III 55.3 380 68 473 64.1 50.3 55.1 51.5

     

     

    SAFETY
                     
    Texas
    Player Overall Grade Run Defense Snaps Pass Rush Snaps Coverage Run Defense Grade Tackling Pass Rush Grade Coverage Grade
    Jr. J.R. Reed 89.7 331 9 395 71.7 65.8 61.4 90
    Soph. Richard LeCounte III 83.3 311 2 407 74.9 73 57.6 85.7
    Fr. Caden Sterns 73.8 366 10 488 71.7 66.8 54.8 73.8
    Fr. B.J. Foster 67.3 197 85 283 73.7 54.8 74.1 60.4
    Jr. Brandon Jones 58.5 271 13 334 79.8 68.7 75.5 47.1

     

  6. 7 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    Texas has also beaten a team that should have been clearly superior on paper.  Georgia has not.  Texas also did not get blown out by a less talented team.  So we are talking about comparable weaknesses generally.  I'm attempting to correct the general mis-impression that Georgia is some kind of juggernaut.  Feel free to point out Texas' weaknesses.  But we know them pretty well so it doesn't add to the knowledge base of this board.  But most posters here aren't that familiar with Georgia.  What they do know is somewhat distorted by the ESPN-SEC hype machine.  I see part of my role as introducing facts that may not match that narrative.

    That was a great victory in the Red River Shootout.  Gotta throw out all the stats and rankings when it comes to a rivalry game.  Anything can happen when teams hate each other that much.

     

    For UGA and LSU, the Dawgs ran into a buzzsaw.  They got rattled early, got thrown off their gameplan, and never recovered.  Sucks too, because a W there pretty much would have secured a playoff spot even with the loss to Bama in the title game.  UGA was overconfident and a little too full of themselves.  Got punched in the mouth and lost all composure.  The only positive from that game was a much needed attitude adjustment.  Georgia's average margin of victory for the rest of the regular season Power-5 games after that was almost 20 points.  They resolved to not be unprepared or lackadaisical again.   

  7. 18 minutes ago, Gaffords said:

    Georgia still can't find the QB and with no pressure on a qb like Sam he's goung to push the ball deep to two monster recievers or fuck you across the middle with Beck.  That is, when he's not raping you for 15 -20 yards a run.  Oh and our backs are no bumsby any means...

    Our offense is not OU's by any means. But two of our recievers will have to be doubled all night and they love to go deep right down opposite sidelines which really puts alot of pressure on your linebackers to cover a lot of green in the middle against some other talented and speedy recievers...  Covering the middle just so happens is NOT Georgia's strength any more than getting pressure on quarterbacks... your middle is really going to be sooo soft seeing that you will have to leave a spy for Sam or he's going to truck your secondary like bowling pins seeing that your big fat boys up front are going to be too far apart and too slow to offer any help when he feels like stretching his legs... Those big and physical recievers and our TE are pretty good at removing group tacklers, leaving him one on one with some poor soul in the wrong place at the wrong time...

    Oh we really haven't used the backs out of the backfield much as recievers, but it is something he's been known to use in the past and i seem to remember our transfer catching some balls while he was with Cal. Ingram seems to have decent hands also, but seeing Georgia's suffers in the pass rush, it would be a perfect time to throw in some serious wrinkles with something Georgia hasn't seen on game film...

    Georgia's vanilla Offense is tailored to play right into the only "strengths" Texas has on defense. Run up the middle-play action offenses got stuffed early and were forced to the air and plenty of picks...

    What these Georgia dumb fucks on here don't realize is that our losses (outside of the championship) and close wins have ALL been self inflicted.  I don't know if we fixed the boneheaded problems we had on defense, but most of our games should have been huge blowouts...  between 4th quarter defensive naps (or completely taking off one of rhe two halves), stupid offsides, uneccessary holdings, retarded personal fouls, you name it...  However many yards we gave up on defense per game, we gave up another half as many in stupidity... We probably set some sort of record for putting teams looking at 3rd and 17-20 just to give them the first down with penalties that were committed awa from the ball...   If this team cut out only half of the stupid mistakes per game, we would look dangerous. If the defense would've played 4 full quarters, we would have ended with no more than one loss and multiple blowouts...  If we've gotten these issues anywhere close to normal, it could be a LONG NIGHtT for Georgia fans..,

     

    Thanks for the warm welcome.  😎

    I know you're looking at the sack numbers, and making a judgement based on them being lower than one would expect.  That's fair.  The reality is you are going to be surprised at how uncomfortable in the pocket UGA will be able to make Sam during this game. 

  8. 2 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    There's a pattern there but not the one you think.  Opening 2 games, the offense underperformed.  Injured Sam, the offense underperformed.  KSU?  You have to watch them to understand.  They are the Princeton basketball of FBS.

    It's weird having Texas as the scrappy underdog but that was true against OU as well.

    It's just odd to lock in on a "season long trend" of UGA not being able to score more than thirty without Special Teams and/or defensive field position gifts while still defeating the teams by 3+ scores on one hand while ignoring the elephant in the room with UT's struggles to defeat teams that they should really be better than.

  9. 9 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    There's a huge difference.  Georgia's offense starts out conservative and run heavy.  They don't change much when they go into clock killing mode.  Texas is a much better passing team.  Switching to running out the clock takes away a much bigger part of the playbook for the Longhorns.

    Are they though?  You're a stats guy, so I'm sure you are familiar with Football Outsiders.  They have UGA as the #4 passing team in the nation in Passing S&P+.  Texas is #42.

    LINK: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaoff

     

     

    Team Off. S&P+ Rk Success Rt+ Rk IsoPPP+ Rk Rushing Rk Passing Rk SD Rk PD Rk
    S&P+ S&P+ S&P+ S&P+
    Oklahoma 52.2 1 129.1 2 124.7 1 124.8 1 130.6 2 123.8 1 130.8 2
    Alabama 46.4 2 131.9 1 122.3 2 120.2 5 132.6 1 121.6 2 141.6 1
    Georgia 43.1 3 126.3 3 113.1 10 119.5 7 124.6 4 116.5 4 129.1 3
    Ohio State 42.8 4 123 6 101.9 47 101.6 54 121.2 5 110.3 13 122.3 5
    Central Florida 41.8 5 113.6 18 105.1 29 106.1 37 116.8 8 105.8 32 118.2 7
    West Virginia 41.6 6 111.4 20 116.3 5 106.6 35 113.7 12 110.6 10 118.1 8
    Clemson 41.6 7 119.2 10 104.4 34 119 8 108.1 27 110.8 9 118.6 6
    Memphis 40.7 8 110.2 24 112.5 11 121.9 4 101.3 66 111 8 108.5 27
    Ohio 40.5 9 125.6 4 106.6 25 122.1 3 113 14 118.8 3 108.6 26
    Oklahoma State 40.3 10 107.3 35 105.5 28 108.5 25 104.2 43 104.9 39 107 32
    Houston 38.9 11 102.7 57 117.9 4 108.6 24 109 23 106.5 27 114.2 14
    Ole Miss 37.9 12 114.2 15 114.1 9 111.8 15 112.8 15 113.5 5 113.6 17
    Wisconsin 37.9 13 119.7 8 96 89 122.6 2 97.7 80 111 7 102.6 53
    Washington State 37.6 14 113.9 16 101.6 51 101.9 53 106.1 35 107.3 24 109 25
    Missouri 37.5 15 114.6 14 101.6 52 108.9 21 110.5 17 108.4 20 108.1 29
    Purdue 36.6 16 108.1 31 115.7 7 107.7 29 108.8 24 110.3 12 108.4 28
    Toledo 36.2 17 108.6 27 110.2 16 116.1 12 103.6 46 111.3 6 100.2 70
    Boise State 36 18 119.4 9 97.9 82 112.3 14 107.9 29 108.2 21 114.1 16
    Texas A&M 35.9 19 114.8 13 100 64 108.8 22 108.7 25 105.7 33 114.8 12
    Utah State 35.8 20 112.8 19 107.4 22 108.4 26 107.4 32 110.5 11 111.3 21
    NC State 35.6 21 119.9 7 94 97 97.9 75 113.7 13 105.6 35 112.7 19
    Stanford 35.4 22 108.1 32 115.3 8 92.6 105 117.2 7 108.5 19 115.7 10
    Oregon 35.4 23 100.7 66 103.7 37 100.5 57 105.1 39 97.1 89 114.9 11
    Michigan 35.2 24 114.9 12 101.1 58 107.3 33 115.1 10 110.3 14 103 50
    Texas Tech 34.9 25 108.4 29 93.6 101 94.6 97 102.8 53 102 50 105.5 39
    Notre Dame 34.7 26 104.3 49 104.2 35 98 74 109.4 21 103.8 44 104.2 45
    Florida 34.7 27 110.2 25 100.9 59 107.3 32 107.8 30 106.3 30 100.2 69
    Texas 34.4 28 106.4 41 92.1 110 95.2 93 104.3 42 100.2 61 99.6 73
    • Like 1
  10. 2 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    You're thinking like a Georgia fan.  Your recruiting has been superior for years.  Texas is beating people more with scheme and effort than pure talent at this point.  There are 2 transition classes (2013 now RS seniors and 2017 sophs and RS freshmen) that were way below what most people would expect for Texas recruiting.  Charlie Strong's non-transition classes were ranked around #10 but even some of that talent was lost to transfers in the coaching change.  It's true that Texas had a great 2018 recruiting class.  But recruiting classes were ranked #17, #10, #9, #25 and #3.  And the talent remaining is likely lower than that for Strong's classes.  So really only the freshmen are going to out-talent most opponents by a wide enough margin to ensure victory that way.

    Ok. So, maybe Texas isn't as talented as I think.  Same point still stands.  There's a season long trend of Texas not being able out scheme and out effort teams that shouldn't be on the level of Texas, Herman, and Orlando.  

  11. 1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

    Todd Orlando's defensive philosophy has just fine against a lot of different offensive looks.  But this year's personnel are best suited to defending pro style offenses.  The last SEC team Texas played was held FAR below their season averages in points, rushing and total yards by Orlando's defense.

    Delete

  12. 2 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    True but irrelevant.  You're asking about a specific game, with a real outlier of an outcome.  I'm pointing to a season long patter where UGa's offense has trouble breaking 30 without a lot of help from the D and special teams.

    Was it an outlier though?

    K-State, Tulsa, Maryland, and Baylor.  All teams that a more talented Texas team should have manhandled.  All decided by 7 or less.  

  13. 3 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    Sam's shoulder was still injured.  Probably contributed to the 2 picks.  Game plan was very conservative and limited his carries.  Quite reminiscent of the 2005 aggy game and for similar reasons.  Even with the uncharacteristic turnovers and a blown call on the onside kick, KU never had a chance in that game.

    So, similar to the teams you mentioned vs. UGA that never really had a chance in the game either?

  14. 1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

    Texas will penetrate and disrupt.  Creating negative plays hurts a run-dependent offense more than it would hurt an offense comfortable throwing it from any down and distance.

    I wouldn't say UGA is not "comfortable" throwing from any down and distance.  Here's Jake's vs. Sam's numbers on third down passing this year.  The numbers are sorted by passer rating making Jake 21st in the nation and Sam 41st. 

     

      Name Team Yr G Att Comp Pct. Yards TD Int Rating 1st 1st / Att
    21 Jake Fromm Georgia SO 12 67 39 58.2 520 9 3 158.77 30 44.8%
    41 Sam Ehlinger Texas SO 13 101 62 61.4 849 6 3 145.67 44 43.6%
  15. 1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

    Auburn is just one example.  Georgia needed turnovers or big plays on special teams to crack 30 against Missouri, Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee and Auburn.  Obviously they didn't do well against LSU regardless.  There are enough examples to establish a pattern.

    While we're talking about offensive struggles, what happened to Texas at Kansas? With the Championship Game appearance on the line how did Herman allow this stinker of a game?

     

    Matchup 251.png&h=100&w=100 2305.png&h=100&w=100
    1st Downs 19 14
    3rd down efficiency 6-15 9-19
    4th down efficiency 0-0 0-1
    Total Yards 297 296
    Passing 154 159
    Comp-Att 16-28 18-35
    Yards per pass 5.5 4.5
    Interceptions thrown 2 1
    Rushing 143 137
    Rushing Attempts 41 33
    Yards per rush 3.5 4.2
    Penalties 4-35 9-98
    Turnovers 2 1
    Fumbles lost 0 0
    Interceptions thrown 2 1
    Possession 31:18 28:42
  16. One note about using Auburn as an example of a team that held the UGA offense in check. While they ultimately held the Dawgs to a lower scoring output, the team stats tell a very lopsided story. Because of AU's outstanding DL, they were able to muster two big time goal line stands costing UGA 8 points due to settling for FGs. Also, as you can see, UGA was held back by self inflicted penalties too.  Just food for thought when trotting them out as an example. 

     

    Matchup 2.png&h=100&w=100 61.png&h=100&w=100
    1st Downs 19 24
    3rd down efficiency 3-11 8-14
    4th down efficiency 0-1 1-2
    Total Yards 274 516
    Passing 172 213
    Comp-Att 25-37 15-23
    Yards per pass 4.6 9.3
    Interceptions thrown 0 1
    Rushing 102 303
    Rushing Attempts 20 46
    Yards per rush 5.1 6.6
    Penalties 6-52 12-85
    Turnovers 0 1
    Fumbles lost 0 0
    Interceptions thrown 0 1
    Possession 21:45 38:15
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