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So_co

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Posts posted by So_co

  1. Rumors swirling that UGA standout CB D. Baker may reverse his previous decision to play in the Sugar Bowl.  Sounds like he got a very high draft evaluation and may be re-evaluating the risks and benefits. 

    Personally I can't fault the kid. His heart wants to play, but the logic here almost certainly dictates that the risk isn't anywhere close to the reward. 

     

    The guy most likely to replace him in the game, is former 5 star Tyson Campbell. He started earlier in the year opposite Baker, but got benched due to poor play. 

  2. 16 minutes ago, thrillhammer said:

    okay, fine.  so they have one 5-star wr on campus.  i'm just trying to keep it real.  there was a georgia fan on here last week saying they substitute 5 stars with 5 stars.  that's not really true. let's not panic.  with proper coaching and game plan we can beat these guys.

    To be fair to the players, not that it means anything more than a hill of beans right now, but there are 3 five star guys at WR for UGA right now.

    Demetris Robertson as a WR (transfer from Cal; hasn't seen much time yet)

    Hardman as an ATH 

    Godwin as an ATH

     

    With that being said, stars don't mean #$% once on campus.

  3. 2 minutes ago, Jkwellborn said:

    How is Fromms ability to buy time in the pocket, scramble that sort of thing?

     

    He's more of a step up in the pocket or slide to the side a step or two.  If that doesn't work, he'll get rid of it or take the sack.  Won't see him move much more than that especially with an iffy backup situation.

  4. 19 minutes ago, Bill Lumbergh said:

    I wouldn't discount Riley pulling back a bit, also, with a 14 point lead at the half.

    I think based on the first half he thought they could score at will if needed and turtled a bit, then realized too late that the adjustments were making it harder and his own defense was withering.

    We followed this exact script a lot this year.

    That's certainly possible.  I brought it up more for the schematic details than the actual outcome.  

    UGA's defense this year isn't nearly as dynamic as last years was, but UT's offense isn't on the same level as OU with Baker either.  Still brings up interesting schematic details that certainly could be relevant on Jan 1st.

  5. 4 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    Texas has seen really fast guys this season.  Most of them were better WRs than Hardman too.  TCU's KaVonte Turpin, OU's Marquise Brown and Tech's Ja'Dieon High come to mind immediately.  Speed is good but it's less important than hands, route running and ability to read a defense, while being about equal to sized and strength.  Those factors are the reason the very fast D'Shawn Jamison is buried on the WR depth chart behind bigger, slower but more skilled guys in Austin.

    Yeah, UGA has one of those guys too in former 5-star transfer from Cal, Demetris Robertson.  He's a burner and was on the all FR PAC-12 team at Cal, but ended up transferring to UGA, and can't see the field because he's behind WRs that are bringing the physicality to the game that he just isn't ready to deliver on.  

    Mecole still does need some polish, but you can't teach a guy to run a 4.32 40. 

  6. 17 minutes ago, thrillhammer said:

    that may be, but i don't think you have the edge there.  your edge is in the running game.  if we can somehow stop the run and force you to throw we will win this game.  you will not beat us passing.  that's just my prediction and the way i am seeing it today.  come gametime you guys could toast us for 500 yds passing for all i know. on paper, right now though, i don't see you passing on us.

    I certainly agree that the edge for UGAs offense is more in the run game than the pass game.  UGA runs the ball to open up the pass, so if they are having success on the ground, the passing game will open up.  As you said, the key to UTs success in this game is stopping the UGA run game.  

    I know that Herman and Texas are working toward building a physical football team, and it looks like he's made strides in doing so.  That's good.  I love a physical brand of football.  This will be a real measuring stick for how far along in that process you are, as UGA is undoubtedly one of the most physical teams in all of college ball.  If Texas can out-physical UGA, then you have really come a long way.

  7. 11 minutes ago, thrillhammer said:

    do you think your wr's have come in contact with db's as physical as ours?  i'd wager to say not.  we get burned a lot, but when we hit you're not going to like it.  your passing attack is far below the level we've played all season, so i do not see this being as big a factor in this game.  georgia can run the ball, and that's their strength and our weakness.  this is the ball game, imo, when you have the ball at least.  

    If there is one thing that the UGA WRs do well, and as well as any group in the nation, it's play a physical brand of football.  Don't worry, they'll hit back.

    7635189.jpg

  8. Thought this fit in this thread well.  It's an article focused on the defensive adjustments UGA made in the second half of the Rose Bowl last year to stop the bleeding from the amazing first half the OU offense had (31 first half points vs. 7 second half points).  

    The TL;DR of the article is the first half UGA came out in a 2 deep safety looks with very little to no blitzing and got shredded to the tune of ~9 yds per play.  Went back to the drawing board at the half and starting playing glue coverage with lots of pressure looks coming from different angles.  After four TDs and one FG on the Sooners six drives of the first half, OU's first five drives of the second half resulted in 20 plays, 37 yards, 2 first downs, zero points.  The success continued with allowing only one offensive TD in the second half and then only a FG in 2 OT possessions.

     

    https://www.dawgnation.com/football/team-news/film-room-defensive-tweak-shaped-historic-rose-bowl-win

     

    Conclusion:  Who knows exactly how the UT vs. UGA match-ups will play out, but I expect both staffs are hinging a lot of the game plan on how well or not-so-well things worked out in the Rose Bowl last year.

  9. 21 hours ago, Bama Llama said:

    I am not that metric savvy but I know this.  When UGA is in 3rd and 6+ Texas had better watch out for three players - Nauta, Swift and Ridley.

    Don't forget about possibly the fastest man on the field in #4 Mecole Hardman!  This gif was from the national title game last year on a third and long where Mecole had a few steps on Bama's fastest player (NCAA 10.12 100 m time).  

     

    frommbomb.0.gif

  10. 9 minutes ago, Jkwellborn said:

    GA probably saw a lot more 3rd and longs on defense versus teams that don’t throw 50 times a game.

    Luckily that can be assessed.  Georgia put opponents into thrid and 7+ yards to go on 13.7% of attempts.  Texas did the same on 14.5% of pass attempts against them.

  11. 33 minutes ago, GoldAppleCorps said:

    Big 12 defenses try to stop this silliness with a pass rush. If you give a Big 12 team time to develop a route, someone will get open.

    Good timing on bringing this up as I was just about to bring some pressure stats to the table.  Looks like the sack rate (6.09% vs. 6.88%) and the INT rate (1.92% vs. 2.06%) are pretty similar for the teams.  The biggest standout stat here looks to be the QB hurry (QBH) rate.  Georgia was able to hurry QBs on 16.0% of the pass attempts against them, and Texas' rate was 7.3%.  UGA also had a better rate of breaking up passes at 12.8% of attempts vs. 9.6%.  

    There seems to be a lot more variability in the QBH stats for Texas.  They had a few games with 0 QBHs credited and then were able to get after Baylor and Iowa State at about 20% clips.  Any thoughts as to why?  Are the Maryland and Kansas OLs better than I would think?  Were there injuries?

     

    Opponent Opp Pass Att Sacks Sacks/Att INT INT/Att QBH QBH/Att PBU PBU/Att
    South Carolina 48 1 2.08% 2 4.17% 3 6.3% 7 14.6%
    Missouri 48 2 4.17% 1 2.08% 7 14.6% 9 18.8%
    Tennessee 21 2 9.52% 0 0.00% 4 19.0% 3 14.3%
    Vanderbilt 30 1 3.33% 0 0.00% 3 10.0% 6 20.0%
    LSU 30 3 10.00% 0 0.00% 6 20.0% 3 10.0%
    Florida 21 1 4.76% 1 4.76% 3 14.3% 1 4.8%
    Kentucky 29 4 13.79% 0 0.00% 7 24.1% 1 3.4%
    Auburn 37 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 3 8.1% 4 10.8%
    Georgia Tech 14 3 21.43% 0 0.00% 7 50.0% 2 14.3%
    Alabama 34 2 5.88% 2 5.88% 7 20.6% 4 11.8%
      312 19 6.09% 6 1.92% 50 16.0% 40 12.8%
                       
    Opponent Opp Pass Att Sacks Sacks/Att INT INT/Att QBH QBH/Att PBU PBU/Att
    Maryland 34 1 2.94% 0 0.00% 0 0.0% 3 8.8%
    USC 48 3 6.25% 1 2.08% 4 8.3% 5 10.4%
    TCU 40 0 0.00% 3 7.50% 4 10.0% 5 12.5%
    Kansas State 25 3 12.00% 0 0.00% 1 4.0% 2 8.0%
    Oklahoma 27 2 7.41% 1 3.70% 0 0.0% 2 7.4%
    Baylor 40 3 7.50% 1 2.50% 9 22.5% 3 7.5%
    Oklahoma State 34 3 8.82% 0 0.00% 4 11.8% 3 8.8%
    West Virginia 42 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 2 4.8% 5 11.9%
    Texas Tech 48 4 8.33% 1 2.08% 1 2.1% 3 6.3%
    Iowa State 29 6 20.69% 1 3.45% 5 17.2% 4 13.8%
    Kansas 35 3 8.57% 1 2.86% 0 0.0% 5 14.3%
    Oklahoma 34 2 5.88% 0 0.00% 2 5.9% 2 5.9%
      436 30 6.88% 9 2.06% 32 7.3% 42 9.6%

     

     

  12. 12 minutes ago, GoldAppleCorps said:

    Does Georgia come to the line ready to either run or pass? In the Big 12, we like to count defenders in the box and switch to run or pass depending on the math. I'm expecting Texas to almost always have a ton of defenders in the box, then have some, none, or all of those defenders rearrange themselves at the snap. This will be an attempt to prevent UGA from running ISO's and stretches for 5 yards a clip. Todd Orlando has a lot of tweener players on his roster, and I'm sure he's coming up with new and interesting ways to deploy them. Any QB trying to freelance after the snap will probably need to chase down an INT.

     

    Yep.  One of Fromm's biggest strengths is getting the Dawgs in the right play at the LOS.  He's one of those "student of the game" QBs that really knows the playbook, and one of the biggest parts of his game that the coaching staff heaps praise on him is his pre-snap reads.  That's a big part of the reason that Justin Fields wasn't able to unseat him during the year even though Justin is more physically gifted.  

  13. 11 hours ago, sushihorn said:

    It's from the stats page on UGa's own website.

    Thanks for pointing those out.  I've always looked at cfbstats.com to get data, and haven't seen how well laid out the stats are directly from the official sites.  Didn't used to be like that, but admittedly, I haven't checked for quite some time.

    The reason I asked, is I wanted to give a little more context to the numbers being quoted for PBUs.  I, of course, see now where you got the 10 - 20% figure.  As you can see the total rate of PBUs/Att for both teams is very similar (9.73% vs. 8.79%), however there is a huge outlier with Texas' numbers with the 12 PBUs in 34 attempts in the USC game.  What happened there?  Why is that number so skewed?

    TO NOTE: I've excluded non-Power 5 teams from the data.

     

    Opponent PBUs Attempts PBU/Att
    South Carolina 0 19 0.00%
    Missouri 1 23 4.35%
    Tennessee 0 24 0.00%
    Vanderbilt 3 31 9.68%
    LSU 4 34 11.76%
    Florida 5 24 20.83%
    Kentucky 2 20 10.00%
    Auburn 2 23 8.70%
    Georgia Tech 0 19 0.00%
    Alabama 8 40 20.00%
      25 257 9.73%
           
           
    Opponent PBUs Attempts PBU/Att
    Maryland 2 39 5.13%
    USC 12 34 35.29%
    TCU 1 32 3.13%
    Kansas State 1 38 2.63%
    Oklahoma 1 37 2.70%
    Baylor 2 39 5.13%
    Oklahoma State 6 42 14.29%
    West Virginia 3 36 8.33%
    Texas Tech 3 34 8.82%
    Iowa State 0 25 0.00%
    Kansas 3 28 10.71%
    Oklahoma 3 37 8.11%
      37 421 8.79%

     

     

  14. 34 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    The SEC is not exactly known for sure handed WRs. There are a bunch of fast athletes, which is fine when the objective is to stretch the defense with the occasional deep shot and to throw easy short passes that they can turn into something.  That's very different from having to identify the soft spots in 7 or 8 man zone coverage regularly or making the same read as your QB on an option route against tight man help coverage downfield.  As athletes I accept the UGa WR corps as equal to much of the Big XII.  They are better blockers than most of what we see in conference play also.  But they haven't shown me some of the key skills needed in an offense that passes more than 35-40% of the time.

    And drops per se are not the only issue.  Georgia's passing game allows a lot of PBUs.  Partly that results from Fromm not reading coverages that well.  The other part is that his WRs aren't as good securing the ball and get a lot of them knocked loose in traffic.  Against the decent defenses, somewhere between 10% and 20% of Fromm's pass attempts were broken up.  Since most of his passes are short and underneath the coverage, about 2/3 of those passes should have a near ZERO chance of producing a PBU.  Looked at from the other direction, somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of Fromm's passes into coverage got broken up. 

    Do you have links to those pass breakup stats?  I'd be interested to see them.

  15. Here's the expected line up for the UGA OL with a couple of notes.

    LT 71 Andrew Thomas (6-5, 320, So.) - 1st team SEC Coaches Poll; Projections have him as a top 10 pick once eligible

    LG 66 Solomon Kindley (6-6, 335, RSo.)

    C 53 Lamont Gaillard (6-2, 308, Sr.) - 1st team SEC Coaches Poll

    RG 77 Cade Mays (6-6, 318, Fr.) - Former 5-star playing due to an injury, but may have played his way into a starting role

    RT 79 Isaiah Wilson (6-7, 340, RFr.) - First year starter; Former 5-star; Very consistent year; Dominant in run game; Decent in pass pro
     

  16. 6 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    Sub Graham (#49) for #94 as most likely.  That allows Hager (#44) to align as a 7 or 9-tech DE which is more his strength.  He played there standing up as a Buck LB (Jack LB in Georgia's nomenclature) and did well last year.  The other possibility is a 3 DL, 5 man front with Hager and either Roach or McCullogh as OLBs.

    That 4 man front seems to utilize the personnel a little better overall than trying to shoehorn #44 in as a 3-4 DE.  Would limit the ability to substitute much though.  Many teams that the Dawgs have played have really worn down in the second half with that massive OL leaning on them all game.  

  17. 4 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    Georgia plays a lot of man coverage.  It's going to be interesting to see how that affects their ability to stop Sam on the QB draw and scramble when their DBs have their back to the QB.  That may be another reason for their struggles with receivers that release late.

    That's also one of the reasons UGA doesn't get as many sacks and TFLs.  The DL has to stay disciplined in their rush lanes to keep contain because the tendency to play man on the back end.  As you've noted, the Dawg D really tries to keep everything in front of them and doesn't really press the higher risk / higher reward schemes.  

  18. 10 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    Charles Omenihu (#90) is the star and he plays 75-80% of the snaps, even against teams that take 80-90 offensive snaps per game and there are a lot of them in our conference.  Chris Nelson (97) is a key run stopper and Gerald Wilbon is his likely replacement next year; that's more of a true rotation.  Hager (44) starts at DE but Ta'Quan Graham (49) usually gets 20+ snaps in relief.  With the running threat, you may see some 4 DL packages to get more beef up front.

    So would a four man front look like #90, #97, #94, and #44 across?  Or would there be a different fourth man?

  19. 14 minutes ago, bigcigar said:

    Omenihu (90) will be on the field most snaps. Nelson (97) will start and Wilbon will rotate in some (70/30?). Not sure on Hager. I’d expect Roach to split snaps with him, but really have no idea.

    Thanks.  What the coaching staff chooses to do with Hager will go a long way into determining how the game goes IMO.  It's no secret that he can get swallowed up in the run game by bigger OLs, so with a huge OL with a physical run game on deck, what will Orlando do.  On one hand, Hager is a team captain, and a legacy player in his final game, so sitting him for long stretches in the game takes away the glory of his last game in the Burnt Orange.  That being said, he very well could be a liability against a run game like UGA's.  Really tough decision for Orlando here.  

    Then on the other side, I know that Omenihu has really excelled in getting in the backfield for TFLs and Sacks.  What's the word on him in the run game?  Stout at the point of attack?  More of a threat at running the RB down from the backside?

  20. It's cool.  You guys like your guy, and I like mine.  We all have our angles.  

    Moving on.  I have a question about the DL and how the guys rotate during the game.  Looks like #90 is the star.  Does he play just about every snap or is he part of a rotation?  How about #94 and #97?  Do they rotate much or is it #97's show?  Do you expect Hager to continue to get the start and play much of the game, or will the backup with a little more mass see some more PT?

  21. 13 minutes ago, bigcigar said:

    Sitting 10 yards back waiting to get plowed isn’t a big difference to coming off a block. There was no launch...no idea what the fuck you’re talking about.

    I'll just agree to disagree.  Just looking forward to a good game.  

    giphy.gif

  22. 2 minutes ago, bigcigar said:

    You’re right. One was a qb coming out of a cut and the other was a rb with 10 yards of steam.

    The bigger difference is related to the poor guys that are getting trucked.  One was ready, prepared, had a good base, and attempted to launch himself into the tackle.  The other was engaged with a blocker, already falling down, and reaching for an arm tackle.  

    • Like 1
  23. Another note of interest about the UGA WRs. They are all very physical in the run game. It's one of the biggest things the UGA coaches require of them before seeing any meaningful playing time. 

    Here's a quote from Kirby earlier in the year:

    “That’s the one thing our guys on the perimeter take pride in,” Smart said of Georgia’s receivers blocking. “They’re physical. You ask these other teams, 8, 87, 2, 9, 5, they hit you, and it wears you down.”

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