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Bevo

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Posts posted by Bevo

  1. 3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

    They feel like they want more vodka to numb the despair inherent in living as a Russian in Russia.

    That's it.  It's the sum total of "existing in Russia."  It's an evergreen principle as well.  

    This is somewhat true as well. When you are poor and hungry, you concern yourself more with your immediate needs and focus less on others including other Russians, the Russian government and most definitely Ukraine and Ukrainians.

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  2. 3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

    You have to wonder if most are behind the war, because most Russians would assume whatever answer they give is recorded by the state to their possible detriment. 

    But just like Newsmax or Fox, there are lots of people who simply believe whatever state run television tells them.  There will always be a hard-core group who believes every lie that comes out out of the Kremlin. But I’m sure there are a ton of people who simply don’t want to be arrested or have their meager employment opportunities forever ruined with the wrong poll answer.  

    We get to boo and yell at our representatives in Townhall meetings. That gets you a jail cell in Russia.  I have no earthly idea how you can get a sense with the Russian public truly feels.


    I was speaking with a Russian from southern Russia not far from Ukraine, and she tells me that most of her family back in Russia most definitely believe the Russian State Media news regarding Ukraine. She says that attitude is more the norm than the exception. Unfortunately, I didn’t ask lots of questions because she was a patient, but I found it interesting. Brainwashing is real and without easy access to many other sources of information, the Russian news dominates.

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  3. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-16-2025/

     

    Toplines

    The Council of the European Union confirmed that European countries and the United States will provide “robust” security guarantees to Ukraine as part of the peace deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.[1]  The Council of the European Union issued a joint statement on December 15 affirming that the United States and European leaders are committed to working together to provide “robust security guarantees” and economic recovery measures for Ukraine in the context of the peace deal. The Council agreed to provide support for the Ukrainian military in peace time; a European-led multinational force composed of forces from the Coalition of the Willing; a US-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism; and a legally binding commitment to take military, diplomatic, and economic measures in the event of Russia’s reinvasion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on December 16 that US and Ukrainian officials discussed legally-binding security guarantees during the talks.[2] Zelensky noted that Ukrainian and US officials will meet in Miami, Florida, to continue discussions about security guarantees, and a US official noted that US and Ukrainian working groups will likely meet over the weekend (December 20 and 21) “somewhere” in the United States, possibly Miami.[3]

    The Kremlin explicitly rejected US and European offers to provide Ukraine with “NATO-like” security guarantees as part of a peace deal and continued to signal its unwillingness to compromise on Russia’s territorial claims to Ukraine’s sovereign territory. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated in an English language TV interview with ABC News on December 15 that Russia “definitely will not at any moment subscribe to, agree to, or even be content with” any NATO troops in Ukraine, even if these forces are part of a security guarantee or are members of the Coalition of the Willing.[4] Ryabkov also reiterated that Russia would not compromise “in any form” on the five Ukrainian regions that Russia illegally annexed — which includes the entirety of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts and Crimea. Ryabkov notably stated that Russia has “five [regions] altogether,” effectively reiterating the Kremlin’s demand that Ukraine give up unoccupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts to Russia, and therefore signaling that Russia remains unlikely to agree to any ceasefire that would freeze the current frontline. Ryabkov reiterated Russia’s theory of victory — which claims that Russia will inevitably win by outlasting Ukrainian resilience and Western support — by stating that the end of Russia’s war in Ukraine depends on when Ukrainian supporters “recognize the inevitable outcome of [Russian] success.” Ryabkov also stated that Russia’s whole “purpose” of war in Ukraine is to have Ukrainians find out that they belong in Russia, effectively restating the Kremlin’s long-term goal of establishing control over Ukraine’s government and its people, not just its land.[5] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov similarly reiterated on December 16 that Russia wants to “end this war” but seeks to achieve its goals, which ISW assesses include decapitating and replacing the Ukrainian government, destroying the Ukrainian military, and undermining Western unity.[6] Peskov also rejected the Ukrainian-proposed and US-supported idea of a Christmas truce.[7] The Kremlin has been effectively rejecting key points of various peace deal proposals, including the original US-proposed 28-point peace deal, such as reliable security guarantees for Ukraine or territorial swaps.[8]

    Russia launched an information campaign to frame the European Union and individual European countries as an enemy of the Russian people, comparable to Nazi Germany, in an effort to further militarize Russian society. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed in an interview with Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting on December 15 that Europe is waging a war “under a Nazi flag” with Russia through European support for Ukraine.[9] Lavrov claimed that European leadership in Belgium, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and the Baltic states is reviving “the theory and practice of Nazism.” Lavrov also claimed that Germany is involved in a “resurgence of militarism” and connected modern Finland to Adolf Hitler and the Siege of Leningrad — likely referring to historically and culturally significant events that invoke historical grievances amongst Russians. Lavrov also compared modern European leadership to historical figures such as Adolf Hitler and Napoleon Bonaparte that represent an existential threat to Russia. Lavrov’s false claims that different European leaders are practicing a nebulously defined “Nazism” are distinct from Russia’s false claims that Ukraine has neo-Nazi leadership, which pertains to Russia’s false claims that Ukraine is engaged in a genocidal campaign against Russian-speaking populations living in the country. Lavrov is leveraging the term “Nazi” to identify modern European countries and their current leadership as enemies of the Russian people and to recall Soviet narratives of patriotism to prepare the Russian population to accept greater levels of sacrifices in the pursuit of the ideological defense of the Russian state for an indeterminate amount of time.

    The Kremlin is trying to downplay ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in Kupyansk as Russian ultranationalist milbloggers continue to acknowledge the severity of the situation for the Russian forces. Ukrainian military sources reported on December 16 that around 200 Russian servicemen remain in Kupyansk and that Russian forces have limited logistics due to successful Ukrainian shaping and interdiction operations.[10] Russian state media has recently vastly platformed statements from Russian military officials and propagandists that downplay the situation in Kupyansk, likely in an effort to uphold a false Russian narrative that Russian forces are imminently collapsing Ukraine’s defense — a narrative aimed at influencing Ukraine and the West to make significant concessions to Russia. Russian state sources, including the Western Grouping of Forces (GoF) and an unnamed source from the Russian Joint GoF, claimed that Russian forces retained control over Kupyansk and accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of falsifying the December 11 video that he took in Kupyansk.[11] Some Russian milbloggers also amplified allegedly geolocated footage that shows two servicemen of the 121st Motorized Rifle Regiment (68th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) reportedly walking in southern Kupyansk, using the video to claim that Russian forces still control the settlement.[12] Other Russian milbloggers, however, continued to criticize Russian state media for failing to adequately cover Ukrainian counterattacks in Kupyansk, with one milblogger even pointing out that Russian state media is relying on the Western and Joint GoFs to conceal the battlefield situation in Kupyansk.[13]

    The Russian Black Sea Fleet denied the loss of a Russian submarine as the result of a Ukrainian unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) strike against the Novorossiysk Naval Base on the night of December 14 to 15 Russian Black Sea Fleet Spokesperson Captain 1st Rank Alexey Rulev claimed on December 15 that Ukrainian reports of the sinking of a Russian submarine in Novorossiysk are false and that no vessels suffered damages in the strike, and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD)-run TV network Zvezda published footage on December 16 allegedly showing the undamaged submarine.[14] An open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyst assessed that the Ukrainian UUV detonated 20 meters from the Russian Project 636 Varshavyanka-class (NATO Kilo-class) submarine and noted that the Zvezda-published footage does not show the stern of the submarine, which was closest to the explosion site.[15] Another OSINT analyst noted that satellite imagery taken on December 16 shows that the submarine has not moved since the strike, potentially indicating damage to the submarine.[16] Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk reported that the Black Sea Fleet now only fields two submarines capable of carrying Kalibr cruise missiles following the strike.[17] Russian milbloggers noted that Ukraine’s ability to conduct a UUV strike inside the ostensibly secure Novorossiysk Naval Base is a serious security lapse, and reported that Ukrainian forces apparently hacked a surveillance camera at the Novorossiysk Naval Base headquarters to provide footage of the strike.[18] ISW cannot assess whether the Ukrainian UUV strike damaged the submarine from the available open-source information at this time.

    Key Takeaways

    1. The Council of the European Union confirmed that European countries and the United States will provide “robust” security guarantees to Ukraine as part of the peace deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
    2. The Kremlin explicitly rejected US and European offers to provide Ukraine with “NATO-like” security guarantees as part of a peace deal and continued to signal its unwillingness to compromise on Russia’s territorial claims to Ukraine’s sovereign territory.
    3. Russia launched an information campaign to frame the European Union and individual European countries as an enemy of the Russian people comparable to Nazi Germany in an effort to further militarize Russian society.
    4. The Kremlin is trying to downplay ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in Kupyansk as Russian ultranationalist milbloggers continue to acknowledge the severity of the situation for the Russian forces.
    5. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and marginally advanced near Kupyansk. Russian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya and Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical areas.
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  4. The first part I agree with. The second part, I’m not so sure about. There are real dangers and real expenses to being the world’s police force. Yes, we gain a lot of power and influence but is it worth the financial cost and the wrath of the countrymen from the countries that we have to police? We’ve already squandered a lot of the financial success that we gained by rebuilding Japan and Europe, how much more money are we going to have to collect or print to maintain wa world police presence. 

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  5. 8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

    The EU as a whole has over 1.5 million active-duty military personnel, and much more modern and effective air forces.  Not to summon Peter Zeihan's spirit, but Russia is on a downward slope in terms of eligible men.  And that's ignoring that they can't even defeat Ukraine.

    And more importantly, Putin doesn't have the balls to truly go after NATO, even with American sitting on the sideline, since England and France have serious nuclear capabilities that he would not risk.

    But here's my thing, putting aside the nuclear issue - if Putin had manpower to spare, we would see it. He literally emptied the prisons, brought in Russian PMCs, brought in a shitload of North Koreans, brought in Africans and Indians that were tricked, and here we are in 2025, the Ukrainians are hitting factories and refineries a thousand kilometers deep into Russia, Muscovites have heard air raid sirens and seen explosions in the distance, the Russians are moving at a snail's pace in Ukraine and taking losses over small amounts of land that they can't afford in the long run, and some of those "gains" they claim, are then reversed by the Ukrainians, and/or are faked.

    He's got 700,000 men committed to Ukraine. He would need several times that to try and invade NATO proper when you take into account that his logistics chain would stretch out very rapidly through enemy territory.  Right now, his local logistics chain is only under serious threat for the last few dozen miles (from the Russian border to wherever in Ukraine). Stretch that out from the Russian border through Ukraine or Belarus (forces in Belarus would quickly find themselves under NATO attack) and it gets into hundreds of miles, and with rails being hit almost immediately by NATO air/missiles, he'd have to try it by trucks, which he doesn't have a lot of these days.

    I firmly believe that if he had even 100,000 or even just 50,000 troops to spare, we would see them being thrown into Donbas or another area to gain control and make his case for claiming that area through "negotiations". I think that's why we are seeing those mobilization orders and building of internal security facilities/groups - he's gotta tap into Moscow and St. Petersburg, and that's going to tie up troops within Russia keeping those cities under control.


    I agree. 

  6. 2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

    And there's even more. Germany deploying engineering troops to build fortifications/defensive positions in Poland next year, on the border with Kaliningrad and Belarus. 

     


    long-term it may not be a good thing, but short-term it is absolutely good that central and Eastern Europe are preparing for a Russian invasion and not relying on the US. 
     

    if Russia does decide to attack, Germany and Poland will not be caught off guard. And more likely, Russia will not attack because with a fortified central and Eastern Europe, Putin knows he would lose.

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  7. 13 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

    Or is it a simple fact that Ukraine doesn’t have enough troops and defensive capability to protect yet another front from Belarusan meat waves?  Or will the very idea of Belarusian meat waves in Ukraine topple their government? Or would Belarus be scared shitless of Poland Lithuania and Latvia and just strenuously protest?  


    Ukraine most definitely doesn’t have the resources to open another front.


    Belarus’ army is terrible btw.

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  8. 56 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

    We may be entering a really very dangerous time that mirrors the beginnings of World War I.

    The fundamental reason for World War I was that the key players--Germany, Austria-Hungry, and Russia--all adjudged 1914 to be a more favorable time for the war that they viewed as inevitable than would be 1915 or 1916.  Russia believed that its designs in the Balkans would be frustrated by Austria-Hungry's infrastructure improvements in eastern Hungry and its political liberalization (largely supported by the heir presumptive, Franz Ferdinand).  Austria-Hungry and Germany believed that Russia's demographics would make it unstoppable in the coming years.  They all were probably wrong.  But that didn't matter--1914 it was to be.

    It may be rational for Russia to believe that if it wants to retake the Baltics, 2026 is going to be its last chance.  After that, Europe's rearmament may make that impossible.


    Hopefully that is true: It would be a pretty lopsided world war - Russia can’t even take Ukraine. Unless there is a total collapse of Russiawithin the year, this is the weakest it will be - given that Trump wants to reopen Russia for business and end its Ukraine problem. Russia will use that opportunity to rebuild its oil and gas infrastructure and rearm its military. 

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  9. Quote

    Jacob met Valerie “Val” McDaniel at the Willowick Condominiums, a luxury high-rise in one of Houston’s upscale neighborhoods. A successful and well-liked veterinarian, Valerie lived next door to Jacob’s mother and came from an esteemed local family. She had been married to Marion “Mack” McDaniel III for 17 years, but she filed for divorce in 2014, citing “infidelity,” according to KPRC.

     

    What's her maiden name?

  10. Quote

    Offensive line
    Starter expected to return: RT Brandon Baker
    Incoming: OT John Turntine III, OG Kaden Scherer, C/G Nicolas Robertson 
    Still monitoring: OT Trevor Goosby (NFL), C Connor Robertson and others
    Gone portaling: LG Connor Stroh

    OTF: Three or four will be the number, depending on the NFL decision by Trevor Goosby. Right now, it's three interior players out of the portal.

     

     

     

    image.gif.bfbeaa7678a1c9448798e96cdd63e0fd.gif

     

     

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  11. 1 hour ago, TexasRenegade said:

    He may have, but most freshman all Americans are so because they play a ton as a freshman on a bad team and then you never ever really hear about them again.


    Randy Moss was a freshman all-American, but to your point, I have no idea how he did after that.

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