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Sal

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Posts posted by Sal

  1. 8 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

    Campbell has only gotten like 3 snaps I think in the ULM game. There’s probably a reason he isn’t out there. If he was better balanced in run and pass pro he would probably be out there. They don’t seem to be afraid to play young guys.

    Him and Cam Williams might be guys who need to bake in the oven a little bit longer before being ready. 

    Maybe it’s a matter of regular vs. early enrolling. They should play in a few weeks if they’re more talented

  2. Before going back to watch film, I think the interior missed a lot of assignments in the run game, especially in the first half. Can recall several instances where Conner and Hutson just missed blocks or failed to properly seal off their man. My question is if someone like DJ Campbell is going to be better balanced at both pass and run blocking to the point that he should get more time. How many snaps has he received this season?

  3. 2 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

    Ewers missed some deep balls in the opener but he was throwing dimes in intermediate and short passes. 

    Card can't do any of that. 

    Agreed, and Ewers was hitting on basically everything against Bama in a small sample. Sliced and diced their secondary

  4. 8 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

    nah, dropped passes happened. This double digit win could have been better, but I ain't gonna lay the blame on Hudson Card.

    The offense sucks with him at the helm. He misses guys wide open down the field (see Sanders, Worthy tonight to start) because he has tunnel vision, a noodle arm, and can’t get the ball out on time. This team has conference championship upside with Ewers and 8-4 upside with Card. Period.

    • Hook 'Em 3
  5. 2 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

    UTSA has trash fans... The folks standing in front of my group did their little horns down and the guy's date flipped off the women in our group behind them after they scored. they are trash, no class, get ur ass back south on 35, fans.... 

    A bunch of UTSA hillbillies in cutoff shirts and jorts sat next to me. Obnoxious the whole game and then took an early walk of shame as Bijan stole their souls

    • Hook 'Em 3
  6. 1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

    Christ. This hits close to my nightmares. I was in London and a British coworker invites me to lunch to go over some stuff. We walk over to this place and we’re talking, so I wasn’t paying attention until we walk in. “Hey man, what is this? “ “Oh, it’s a tex mex place. I figured you’d love it. “ We walked out immediately and got pub food. Nope. 

    This summer, on day 13 of a road trip, I finally gave in and broke the rule I have about not eating tex mex anywhere north of Dallas. I took my family into a “tex mex” restaurant in Sioux City, South Dakota. Holy fucking shit. I had a 6 year old cussing at me about how terrible it was by the time we walked out of that place. The worst tex mex in Texas is better than you’re going to find it in most of the rest of the world. 

    This is a good rule. Worst ever is Tortilla Factory in Harrisburg. Disgusting. HomeState in LA is ok, but that’s an exception.

    It seethes my soul when I see New Yorkers or Californians act like they know good BBQ or Tex-Mex.

    • Hook 'Em 3
  7. 1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

    You forgot the insurance field. But it works there too, since they fail to insure themselves against bad contract after bad contract. Most folks, particularly in the media, seem to have forgotten that the way they structured Sumlin's last contract (after extending him way early) required them to cut a 36 or so million dollar check within 60 days of firing him. 

     

    We’re also forgetting used car salesman. I’ve heard jobs at Sewell make up the majority of the Mays job board.

    • Haha 2
  8. A comfortable win against a decent UTSA team will show progress. I want to see another good gameplan to stop Frank Harris on defense, who I think is one of the best G5 QBs. Get some pressure in his face and see how he reacts. Depending on the health of our QBs, I wouldn’t mind seeing a run-focused gameplan like we used against Kansas St last year. In general, we need to improve the running game and red zone offense this week. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  9. 2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

    While none of this is wrong, I have zero doubt that OB has lost substantial numbers from its subscriber base. I know IT is booming and that growth is very unlikely to be coming from purely organic subs. A ton of the new subs will inherently be cannibalizing people from other sites. 

    The second thing to consider is that it is in no way believable that a man who can't keep up with his income tax obligations is somehow nonetheless investing wisely and building a large nest egg. Let's think about the financials for a minute.

    10,000 subs * $9.95/mo = $1.2M annually. That has to be split 50/50 with Rivals. 

    Assume $25K/mo in advertising = $300k. That can be kept.

    Payroll is how many folks? Suchomel and Anwar? I haven't been over there in probably 15 years so I don't know who else is on the books. Assume 4 heads at $30k/year each, so $120K. Burden * 1.2 = $144K/yr.

    Assume other SG&A is another $25K/month (it's probably higher but Rivals offsets some of the expenses), so you're at $300K/yr. 

    So you go $1.2M - $600K + $300K - $144K - $300K = $456K. Ketchum's take-home is probably roughly $450K with key variables moving that number up or down being sub count, payroll, and advertising revenue. 

    Then you have the guy's personal budget:

    Food: $18K/mo. 

    Mortgage: $3K/mo.

    Utilities & Services: $750/mo. 

    Legal: $5k retainer/mo. 

    Since the guy is immobile and doesn't have a vehicle that he could fit into, I assume he's $0 on travel and auto. I doubt he's bought clothes in decades. 

    You're looking at almost $27K/mo in personal expenses against a pre-tax salary of $450K/yr. Take home on that is about $32k/mo. So, if he has a really good month and doesn't splurge on suing people or ordering the right side of the menu at Perry's Steakhouse in The Woodlands more than 4 times a week, his total savings is $5k. That's $60k/year. Compound that shit all you want, I wouldn't call the dude set for life unless he goes on a diet or decides to stop suing multiple entities at any given moment in time.

    When you say advertising, do you mean promos and other fee waivers? Have trouble getting to $300k

  10. 26 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

    You're not wrong on their access, but I'd stop short of it not being "big business." I have no idea what their membership numbers are these days, but they used to be the biggest UT website on the internet. If their subscriber base is 15k people, that's 150k of revenue...a month. That's 1.8 million a year. You might not call that Big Business, but thats a very comfortable living for Fat Ketch. Who, the last time I saw him over a decade ago when he was out trying to score drunk college chicks, he was driving a 120k mercedes. I know because he wouldn't stop talking about it to said 22 year old girls. I doubt the years since have gone so sideways as to invert the power of compound interest. 

    Fair enough, can’t argue with what connotes big business. Certainly profitable for those involved.

    From a media perspective, we need our admin to grow a set and make some hard decisions.

  11. 1 hour ago, Hookem2147 said:

    Dunlap's defensive deep dive on OB

      Reveal hidden contents

    As always, we'll give analysis along with the tiered rankings (now updated through 1 week of the 2022 season) which are derived via a proprietary scoring formula, and based on the following advanced charting statistics (please note the distinctions in how tackles, etc. are counted and why these stats will always differ from the official university stats):

    Click Images to Enlarge
     

    DEEP-DIG-2016-OFFICIAL-Texas-Longhorns-Football-Def-DIS-LEGEND.jpg



    ***Please note since 2019: -1 point has been added for any defensive penalty outside of defensive pass interference which is always considered a coverage burn and is not double-counted. Please also note that since 2019, missed tackles that result in blown contains are counted as blown contains (-1) and are not double-counted as both a blown contain and a missed tackle***

    Defensive Participation Log: ULM
     

    Deep-Dig-2022-ULM-PART.jpg




    Defensive Snap Counts By Week and Percentage of Total Defensive Snaps Played Through Week 1:
     

    Deep-Dig-2022-Defensive-Player-Participation.jpg




    Defensive Productivity Market-Share Percentages and Snaps per Production Caused Metrics Through Week 1 (snaps per disruption caused is colored coded from blue/best to white/median to red/worst):
     

    Deep-Dig-2022-ULM-PROD.jpg



    Missed Tackles - 9

    LB Jaylan Ford - 3
    CB Austin Jordan - 1
    EDGE Ethan Burke - 1
    LB David Gbenda - 1
    LB Demarvion Overshown - 1
    LB Devin Richardson - 1
    S Kitan Crawford - 1

    Pass Rush or Fool's Gold?

    Texas was clearly much more effective getting to the passer versus ULM in the 2022 opener than it was in general in 2021. Even in a game where starting EDGE Ovie Oghuofo was fairly quiet, we saw a new starting JACK DE in Barryn Sorrell really step out into the spotlight for some excellent plays (1.5 sacks, a QB hit and a separate TFL), giving hope to the possibility that he can build upon the good flashes that we saw of him in 2021 while leaving behind the core-strength issues at the point-of-attack. We saw Demarvion Overshown's sub-package role with the starters off the edge actually being somewhat of a staple of the defensive scheme. Of Overshown's 26 snaps, 12 of them, or about 46%, were as an outside linebacker/EDGE-type player where Diamonte Tucker-Dorsey entered the game to play Overshown's vacated WLB spot inside. On one of those edge snaps, we saw Overshown create the monster TFL as ULM was hovering close to the Texas goal line.

    Of course, the easy (and correct) thing to wonder is: how much of this new information is predictive of future success? How much is fool's gold? ULM is a bad football team, likely the worst Texas will face in 2022. Well, let's do our best to compare apples to apples here and look at Texas' 2021 opener versus another University of Louisiana System institution: Louisiana-Lafayette. In the 2021 opener against a similarly bad opponent, Texas totaled 10 total cumulative sacks, QB hits and QB pressures on the day. In the 2022 opener versus ULM, it total 16. That is a 60% increase in activity getting to the passer. 60 percent. That's extremely significant. If we throw in TFLs, just for the heck of it, we find that Texas increased its productivity behind the enemy line of scrimmage altogether in this one by 54% when comparing the data to that of the ULL game last season.

    Yes, run-stuffs were also up against ULM, as were PBUs, as were blow-ups, as were interceptions and even defensive touchdowns. But the biggest takeaway -- the one thing we all knew needed the MOST fixing coming into 2022 (the pass rush) -- gave us the most encouraging signs moving forward.

    Emerging freshman stars on defense are headlined by Jaylon Guilbeau

    Jaylon Guilbeau started the game at the nickel corner as you can see in the game log, and it likely had a lot to do with Jahdae Barron missing time later in fall camp with injury, but we'll say this: Guilbeau will be a star for the Texas defense sooner than later, and, unless Jahdae Barron was completely hampered by injury in this game -- rendering him only about 50% of his usual self -- Guilbeau should be the starter immediately. Furthermore, if Barron was that badly injured, why would he be playing at a 36% clip in a game where the Texas staff didn't even need him? Why not sit him like they did Alfred Collins?
    Heck, they were better off without Barron, anyway. Look at what Jaylon Guilbeau did on just 22 snaps: 1 tackle, 1 QB hit and 2 QB pressures. He was thrown at once and recorded a PBU/blow-up. Barron didn't register a single statistic in the Deep Dig although he was credited an assisted tackle by the cockamamie Texas Sports Information Department. Regardless, the difference between the two is stark in the numbers, and was just as stark by the eyeball test. Guilbeau is a true emerging star on the Texas defense.

    Some other newcomers that did some nice things included, but not necessarily limited to, EDGE Ethan Burke who was in on four total tackles and also generated a run-stuff on only 19 snaps. EDGE/DE J'Mond Tapp got in on a tackle and also had a nice QB pressure on only 15 total defensive snaps. DE Jaray Bledsoe only played six snaps, but, incredibly on such a small sample, generated one QB pressure and one separate QB hit. CB Ishmael Ibraheem created a PBU on the only time he was targeted in the game, while DT Kristopher Ross had one assisted tackle and one separate half-TFL on only 5 total snaps.

    Texas needs MUCH MORE out of Jaylan Ford, but what is the real alternative?

    Texas needs much more out of Jaylan Ford. He did not record a statistic in the official record books, but in the annals of the Deep Dig, he'll go down as having whiffed on a team-leading 3 missed tackles. Completely unacceptable against an inferior opponent, especially when the defensive line was actually holding up its end of the bargain. Unfortunately, we're not even sure that this stout play upfront will always be the case through the 2022 season as the schedule gets tougher. If Ford was a net-negative for the defense against ULM, it's truly a bad sign. The tough part is, how do you replace him? His immediate backup, as you can see on the Game Log above, is Jett Bush, who was not versus ULM, nor has ever been, a picture of defensive productivity at the mike linebacker spot. Experimentation with Devin Richardson needs to be occurring behind the scenes as a possible fire-alarm glass-break, should Ford's struggles continue.

     

    I’d like to know a couple of things with the this data that someone with past experience could help me with. What’s the threshold for useful sample size within a game? Calling someone “sub-replacement level” for a sample of 15 snaps or fewer is questionable. Is there a consistency metric that will be added in the following weeks? I have a hard time believing Jamison will ever be above tier 3 for coverage ability when facing good teams who don’t give up big plays to him. There should also be separate metrics specifically for coverage, pass rush, tackling, etc, or some other proof that scoring staffs this way at least correlates to defensive success. Again, that’s not my area, but I’m interested to know what backs all of it up. 

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