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Satoshi

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Posts posted by Satoshi

  1. The signal I’m getting from all the usual posters here tells me this is a good idea with legs. The current University culture is hostile to thought or discussion outside the current woke ideology. I have a first degree relative that is a professor at the University and they basically have to stifle any communication about any cultural topics. Official communication commonly goes in depth on topics unrelated to their area of expertise. Dissent in the past has been used against people.

    I would agree that some of the participants make me cringe, but maybe that’s the point. Does everybody have to be on the same team?
     

    No fan of Summers and Palantir founder involvement is not ideal. Although this makes him more likable. 
     

    In his 12 months as an Austin resident, Lonsdale has reportedly donated tens of thousands to the controversial Save Austin Now PAC, the group instrumental in reinstating the city's homeless ordinance in May. Last week, Lonsdale tweeted that men who took paternity leave were "losers." 

    • Fuck You 2
  2. 41 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

    Politics - Take it to the CR. Or move the thread to the CR.  Please.

    ________________________________

    Fed Reserve Mary Daly explains the economic issues succinctly:

    San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on Wednesday said she expects high inflation to moderate once COVID-19 recedes, and repeated that it would be “quite premature” to raise rates now or even to speed up the Fed’s bond-buying taper.

    “Uncertainty requires us to wait and watch with vigilance,” Daly said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. High inflation is being driven by supply-chain bottlenecks and high consumer demand for goods, she said, and labor supply is constrained due to COVID-19 fears and impact. 

    https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-daly/feds-daly-inflation-will-moderate-uncertainty-requires-us-to-wait-idUSS0N2O401Y

    We knew the energy shock would translate into higher prices - always does. 

    Supply chain remains fracture. 

    Covid remains a drag on the economy (and on efforts to reduce supply chain inefficiency).

    Demand remains strong, as expected (that's actually a healthy sign for the economy). Lose that demand and we see recessionary signals. 

     

     

    What was CR?

    Sharing a Bernie tweet? If so, sorry. It was the first thing I could find that referenced the deficit. I really would hope that would not be too triggering to people. 
     

    If it’s deficit talk, well I’m sorry but that’s quite relevant to inflation discussion. 
     

     

  3. 2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

    Nobody gives a shit what Bernie says.  He’s an old man screaming at the clouds.  

    https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2021-08-05/cbo-infrastructure-bill-would-add-256-billion-to-deficit
     

    But it’s fully paid for? Ok.

     

    18 minutes ago, elfenix said:

    >50% of the increase YoY is still gas + cars.  gas we all buy so we feel it but as the price is controlled by a cartel of foreign governments and high gas prices tend to be recessionary it's folly for the fed to react to them.  cars i'm not sure prices will backslide much.  there were 2.5 million fewer cars sold in 2020 compared to 2019 and 2021 has rebounded about halfway but toyota and honda lost a lot of steam MoM.  thanks, bitcoin miners!

    how does bitcoin mining fit into this? Contributing to the chip shortage?

  4. On 5/11/2021 at 8:34 PM, ChiTownDoc said:

    I'm still calling inflation a bogeyman.  So are we gonna call our shot?  I'm saying mid 5's is the absolute highest we go - and that's far from disastrous.  But it would be the highest since 2008.  And prior to that really the early 80's (couple months in '89 touched that mark.  So, anyways, I'll look like a complete idiot in a few months but I'm guessing I won't be alone.  What say you, surly?  Maybe a poll if someone knows how that type of bullshit works...

    Edit: To reiterate I think that mid 5's is worst case scenario and mid 3's is much more realistic.  

     

    On 5/11/2021 at 9:21 PM, Neonmoon said:

    I think 2.5 to 3

     

    On 5/12/2021 at 8:12 AM, GRHorn said:

     

    I was going to go a little higher. The one year expectations were already at 3.4%. I was going to go 4% middle of road, 6.5% high end. 

    I remembered we had some predictions a while back. These were the only posters to put numbers down that I saw. Could be time to revisit. How much higher can we go?

  5. 8 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

    Irregardless, the courts are getting dangerously close to a situation where the executive branch just ignores the courts, who have no real enforcement authority. Is this issue really worth it to the courts?

    How do you feel about the executive branch ignoring checks and balances?

    8 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

    After having looked at it some, despite the facial breadth of the OSHA Act that would seem to permit this, these ETS orders have not fared well in court in the past, for a myriad of reasons.

    It's a matter of picking the right agency to order this, and it looks like OSHA isn't the right one.

    I'm afraid this is probably going down, and not directly as a result of the shitbags on the 5th Circuit.  Or the Supreme Court.  There's about 50 years of precedent working against it, especially the "ETS" nature of the order that sidesteps the normal rulemaking process.  Courts are usually hostile to those.

    This makes sense and explains why the administration is essentially telling businesses to proceed. Much like the eviction moratorium they know it’s doomed so the juice is going to come from the interim period where it’s in limbo. 

    • Fuck You 2
  6. not a lawyer, obv. Need a fact check here. 
     

    Quoted passage from this column. 
     

     

     

    When it blocked the order, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals recorded that “the petitions give cause to believe there are grave statutory and constitutional issues with the Mandate.” As, of course, there must be. The Biden administration issued the mandate via the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), a federal agency whose sole power under the law is to protect employees from workplace hazards. There is nothing in the Constitution’s Commerce Clause that justifies OSHA’s adoption of generalized police powers, and nothing in its charter that permits it to move from regulating toxic substances at employees’ places of work to regulating any hazard that employees might plausibly encounter during the course of their everyday lives. In a brazen attempt to circumvent the statutorily mandatory feedback period, Biden utilized an “emergency temporary standard” (ETS) as his vehicle. But this, too, seems inappropriate. No ETS in American history has ever been this broad, and the last one that was issued — a 1983 attempt to speed up OSHA’s regulation of asbestos — was struck down by the courts.

    • Fuck You 2
  7. 3 hours ago, Bravo said:

    that is straight up antifa tactics

    Captainantifa

    1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

    Well I guess case closed then. Granny just clinched it for team Kyle the hero and his DT sycophants. Lol. 
     

    You guys and your self reinforcing circle jerk are pretty funny where you focus on whatever fact you thinks fits your narrative, no matter how irrelevant it may be, and spin it into JUST DROP THE CASE! 

    Why are you still hanging out on this thread? Even Captainantifa realized it was a lost cause. Unless he really got apprehended harassing those jurors this morning. 

    • Haha 1
  8. 32 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:
    1. What type of inflation is this - demand-pull or cost-push?
      1. demand-pull = money burning a hole in consumers' pockets. Can be caused by too much government money creating excess liquidity.
      2. cost-push = cost of production rises due supply shortages.
    2. With cost-push inflation, there are two major concerns. Which is of greater concern if combatting inflation?
      1. decreased GDP (deflationary headwinds from higher interest rates) and
      2. the psychological effects (invisible hand) of consumer inflation expectations creating inflation (see this thread for the inflation scaremongering). 

    Answer key: 

      Hide contents

    2 and 2

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    I don’t think it’s that clear cut. We have definitely seen commentary assigning some of the supply chain blame to an expansion in post lockout demand. 
     

    It’s also hard to imagine an infrastructure spending package not boosting demand. 
     

    brrrrrrr

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