Jump to content

Muny_Tex

Full Members
  • Posts

    180
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by Muny_Tex

  1. I don't venture into this forum much but I will say that one thing I'm some regretful for, I've lived here since 1984, and I've never actually been to the Salt Lick.  I've had their BBQ and been to a party at one of the newer buildings, but never actually been on the original premises.  Maybe that's good?  

    I guess it became trendy to hate on it for a while (maybe still is?), but it’s a really great place to grab a picnic table + BYOB in Spring/Fall…espec on a weekday when it’s not very busy.

    We often used to “tailgate” there before night games in the mid-late aughts and always had a blast.

    Obviously not much of a “getaway” vibe anymore with all the newly-built sprawl, but still worth a visit.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    • Hook 'Em 2
  2. Interest rate hikes are the easiest, most blunt way to remove liquidity from the economy and therefore smother inflation. 


    Understood, but rhetorical point is what is the Fed waiting for? Shouldn’t immediate rate hikes/cessation of QE/end of asset purchases been enacted the moment it became crystal clear the inflation was not at all transitory and in fact a borderline crisis?

    And as for “less accommodative” Fed policy as an elixir, how does a 1-2 point rate nudge upward offset an inflation issue that is (generously) running at 7.5%? Supply chains will likely improve this year, but enough to resolve an ongoing labor shortage (e.g. psychological shift of many people being “done” with certain jobs/industries), high gas prices, and a tidal wave of pent up demand for travel/leisure?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  3. And how are PMs treating you now, relative to crypto or other assets?  Gold remains my long-term hedge against inflation.  Emphasis on long-term.  It's God's money.  I'll never sell my holdings. Buy and hold until I'm gone.  My kids, nieces, nephews will cash in when I'm gone. 20% of my PMs are gifted to the youngsters every year. They love the buffaloes and learn how value works.   When I eventually take that dirt nap, I'm confident gold will NOT be valued less than it is today.  I don't use my PMs to flip/time the market.  I have a long-term strategy to leave plenty for those who come after me.  Better than leaving cash.
     
     
     
     

    My $GLD is up approx 1.5% YTD, which is beating all 3 major indices espec the Nasdaq…and well surpassing BTC (-8%) and Russell 2K (-9%).

    That said, I do believe another significant sell-off may be right around the corner as fickle investors buy into false narrative that Fed can (or will) get inflation under control with rate hikes…so a non-yield paying hedge is no longer necessary.

    Not sure if you follow mega bug Peter Schiff, but his thesis is marginal rate hikes and “less loose” Fed policy will prove wholly inadequate to stem inflation (bullish for gold)…and any attempt to heavily crank the monetary tightening will crash the markets and threaten severe recession, at which point the Fed will abort mission/resume QE leading to a seismic crash in the dollar (jackpot for gold).

    I don’t entirely share that outlook, but recently structured a very “defensive” portfolio alongside Gold that focuses mainly on established, profitable, dividend-payers with limited exposure to momentum stocks minus some hand-picking that I do in my Roth for cyclical travel/leisure/retail plays.

    In any event, I generally subscribe to your theory that gold is to be “owned” and not actively “traded”. If you believe our ‘borrow & spend’ economy is fundamentally a house of cards (I certainly do), then temporary price swings in gold are irrelevant when the eventual end game (hyperinflation via USD’s loss of status as global reserve currency) is inevitable…just don’t know if we’re 5 years or 300 years away from that catastrophe.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    • Hook 'Em 1
  4. ^^^Great info, thanks for posting.

    I knew “owner equivalent rent” was a dogshit metric, but had no idea it was that willfully inaccurate.

    The housing/rental market has probably benefited from digitization as much as any major consumer industry over the past ~5 years; you could enlist a summer intern from Zillow to pull YoY rental comps (not to mention the ‘for sale’ list prices from MLS) within the top 50 MSAs and do 1000x better than the CPI.

    Everything is a scam. It’s very exhausting.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    • Hook 'Em 2
  5. Has anyone explained yet why runaway inflation is best addressed “in the relatively near future” using the iron-fist of “less accommodative” monetary policy?

    Bonus: I would also appreciate context for how an “extremely robust” economy can also simultaneously possess record high trade deficits and a nearly incalculable national debt?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    • Hook 'Em 2
  6. How old are you (presuming mid-30s)?

    Spouse/significant other? Kids? Elderly relatives/family care obligations?

    Debt situation? Ability to relocate? Savings/family money you can leverage for new degree/professional certification?

    Also, do you want to make max money or do you prioritize intangibles like flexibility, lower stress, unique company benefits, etc?

    I’m almost 37 and been through 3x significant career changes since undergrad (Fortune 500—>Military—>MPA—>Consulting); and the questions above were often just as pertinent (if not more important) than my career interests/resume/relevant skills at each stage.

    There’s a trillion well-paying jobs being given to lazy morons on a daily basis right now; so don’t sell yourself short and take something “good enough” just because it’s less shitty than teaching.

    Also, make sure you take inventory of how much the absence of structure (e.g. bell schedule) and loss of guaranteed breaks like winter holidays and summer may affect your quality of life.

    Most “good careers” in corporate world have terrible cultures with respect to PTO (can elaborate more if you want); and work from home can also be a fucking nightmare depending on your personality….some jobs also require a lot of self-teaching/initiative with minimal guidance which is great if you like to color outside the lines but not easy for people accustomed to rigidity of a things lesson plan or field manual.

    Best advice thus far is do as many “take your friend to work” days as you can within your network and see what resonates.

    Also, don’t be afraid to work at Costco if it “works for you” and/or allows you to constructively hustle your way toward a longer term vision. You’ll probably like your peer group way more than any job you’ve held before and may find unique sense of purpose/accomplishment by “working for a living” instead of staring at dual monitors or listening to bullshit on a zoom as in a “prestigious role” somewhere.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    • Hook 'Em 6
    • Like 1
    • Drool 1
  7. They are moving my seats from 19 to 31. Total price incl donation I think is $940. Is this worth it? Basically I can sell Alabama for $350-$400 and will have to eat the rest at $20-30 game. 

    I don’t understand your math in relation to what you’re “eating”.

    I also don’t understand the point of buying season tickets at those cost levels if you aren’t dead set on going to the Bama game.

    You can get better seats at better prices on the secondary market for nearly all other matchups when compared to the “per game” cost at your minimum donation levels….especially if we get a another shitpile of 11am kickoffs.

    I know recent ST buyers think they’re “saving money in the long-run” by staying locked into donation levels prior to the SEC move, but I don’t think the ticket market is going to change that dramatically in the future…plus CDC is just gonna keep raising the face value anytime he thinks there’s any remotely increased demand.

    If you go back ~15 years, there’s only been a handful of truly “mega expensive” home games that I can recall: tOSU ‘06, ND ‘16, USC ‘18, LSU ‘19.

    It will be a big-ish deal the first time certain marquee programs visit, but apart from the first Aggy rematch, what other opponent is going to break the bank now that Bama’s already coming and LSU (with CFP aspirations) was just here? If anything I think the Michigan game in 2024 will be bigger than almost all of them, except maybe UGA if they go on a huge run and Sark gets the program into CFP contention (ha?).


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    • Hook 'Em 1
  8. Also bonus rant re: Snapchat

    Congrats on taking almost a decade to become profitable at nearly the exact moment that TikTok has rendered your entire application played out/obsolete.

    Snaps daily users evidently beat estimates, but how much of that growth occurred in the last 18 months (as opposed to carry over from when it was still relevant 3 yrs ago), compared to TikTok who literally has a billion people wiggle-dicking on their phones everyday? Same thing with the comparative rates of per person engagement, volume of content uploads etc.

    Snap is on life support with the biggest demos/countries that matter yet somehow it gets to print X billion $$$ tomorrow because the masterminded computers say so?

    I promise I’ll hang up and listen for a few days, but this is some serious bullshit and I don’t even have any financial stake/position here.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    • Hook 'Em 1
  9.  
    Firstly, there is noooo fucking rationale to the 5 or so biggest public companies in the fucking world to go up and down 25% in a fucking day, in consecutive days, on grounds of earnings.
    Secondly, the prices that these things peg at are established literally seconds to minutes after the information is public.  I'm literally hitting F5 on the SEC's EDGAR database and each company's Investor Relations page at :00 minute to see the new Q/K results, and the +/- 200-500 point swing of Google and Amazon instantly print.  There is no sensible human explanation for that.  Are we saying someone allowed their robot to trade 25% away from closing price in the illiquid afterhour sessions, based on the algo hoovering up preprogrammed metrics (net income, etc) using an API to EDGAR?  Or someone preprogrammed IF ELSE scenarios with their finger on the trigger just waiting to hit send?
    FB erased a market cap the size of all of coca cola yesterday.  There's serious consequence behind that movement.  And the market was pricing that before having absorbed the written report, before listening to and questioning and interacting with the executives on the call?  This kinda blows my mind.
    And on the domino effect, I think we already have that in place.  We have literally derivatives of derivatives of derivatives of derivatives that are interdependent in all sorts of perverse ways.  SPX is the sum of the equities.  Option premium on SPX is the price of its vol.  VIX is a measurement of those premiums.  VIX futures is a market for that price forward time.  You can trade the options on the VIX futures.  Or you can trade an ETP based on the rolling sum of VIX futures (VXX, UVXY, SVXY, etc).  And you can trade options on those ETPs, too.  And not to mention unlisted/otc/private swaps.
    So whats the butterfly effect when you wind something along that chain?  Very nuts to think about.

    Excellent post, thanks for the context.

    My follow-on questions echo same original rhetoric: who does this possibly benefit besides a small group of highly sophisticated I-banks/hedge funds?

    If the algos can react/front-run good news and off-load bad news before we can even read one sentence of an earnings release (much less digest the data), how do we stand a chance of consistently ending up on the right side of these volcanic price swings; even if we’ve done all our homework?

    Furthermore, if vast majority of us outside Surly 1% have the bulk of our portfolios trapped inside “employer approved” 401ks…then can’t these same scumbags already “see our cards” before we even start “wagering”….since we are often hamstrung by a handful of mutual funds and ETFs (many of which have significant exposure to blue chips like $FB)?

    I think the typical justification has been “quit your bitching muppet, you made 25% return on your index funds last year, didn’t ya?”…but it’s become a losing proposition when I’m (best case) earning tens of thousands and big fish/institutions (who are now directly competing with me for scarce assets like real estate) are making multi-millions by leveraging a rigged system/stacked deck.

    I’ll leave it there before it gets Cloaky, but would be interested to hear some other perspectives.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  10. Question for those of yall who have been in the game long enough to remember .com bubble (and maybe ‘07-09 too)…has there ever been volatility like this based on basic shit like earnings reports?

    Seeing $SNAP now soaring ~55% AH, after taking a 23% dump today as extension of the Facebook sell-off…what the fuck. Snap says they “reported a profit” (woo), so that’s worth immediate explosion of the entire market cap?

    These seismic market moves are nearly all algorithm driven, correct? If so, how is that a good thing for anyone other than the scumbags behind the machines? Isn’t this eventually going to trigger the wrong type of domino effect and push everything to the edge of circuit breakers one day?

    Kind of rhetorical, but can’t they just create a whole separate exchange for these slot machine stocks and have a boring “boomer” market (that requires hand-driven trading) for people who are at least trying to give a damn about fundamentals?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  11. Just bought 45 shares. Because why the hell not.

    It appears the $10k is likely ashtray money for you (therefore no big deal), but I think your move on $FB today is where dollar cost averaging is really beneficial.

    If I was in your shoes I prob would’ve just committed $3k or so today and then sprinkled the remainder in weekly/bi-weekly increments in case this thing still craters further.

    I guess it depends on your personality, but I always feel way worse about buying too early (and having to climb all the way back just to get even) than buying a couple days too late and missing an easy run-up.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  12. Anecdotal of course, but I think Ford is front-loading deliveries on Broncos to accommodate these bullshit dealer markups.

    Why should any dealer on earth (e.g. Covert Hutto) have 3-4 unclaimed Sports on their lot at $8-$10k over MSRP when manufacturer still has thousands of individual buyers waiting 9+ months for arrivals?

    If the intent is just to fuck people then why even take the solo orders in the first place? So they can tell a cool story to Wall Street about consumer demand?

    In any event, it’s terrible business by Ford on all fronts…if dealers want to play those games then the manufacturer should be the one collecting those huge upcharges before even shipping to them…if dealer then want to pass that cost premium on to local buyers then fine, but they should not be allowed to buy at sticker price if they are all going to pull this shit.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  13. OP this is may be dumb question, but is there particular reason why you can’t (or are opposed) to trade-in toward the new purchase via the dealer that facilitated the order?

    Not sure what state you’re in, but in TX, this is often advantageous versus selling outright since the trade-in decreases the taxable amount of the new purchase cost.

    If that is appealing, I’d get a firm/solidified offer in writing from a local Carmax location (or maybe one of the online shops as well) then ask the dealer if they will match…everyone is dying for inventory right now so it’s worth a try.

    Based on the tax advantages, you may still come out ahead on the trade even if dealer comes in $1k short or so on their competing offer.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    • Hook 'Em 1
  14. In a traditional buyer’s market, a good realtor is invaluable to a prospective client…they have intimate knowledge of the sales pipeline, can facilitate successful negotiations, and leverage trusted relationships to optimize lending/appraisals/warranties/etc.

    Conversely, in a ultra competitive gold rush environment like today you can have the best agent in the world and it doesn’t really make a shit when competing with 25+ offers / cash-only bias / and waived option periods and appraisals.

    When you’ve got hordes of buyers frequently submitting offers sight unseen, or pursuing new builds in catalog-style subdivisions it is difficult to justify paying 3% on the seller side to compensate someone who essentially just performed 40 seconds of clicking on a DocuSign template.

    If the realtor lobby can be defeated, I expect we will soon see some sort of TSAPrecheck equivalent that will allow potential buyers to access lock boxes and view select properties while subject to video surveillance…which I think is where that 1% commission becomes a slam dunk just to provide administrative oversight.

    I’m not a real estate wiz, and managed to buy a condo (conventional loan) in Central Austin unrepresented in Fall 2020 right before the market went full retard…ended up strengthening my offer (and beating out 2 others) since I could essentially deliver “over-ask” at list price due to no extra commission owed…seller’s agent was super cool and even let me submit a brief “hey pick me” letter and everything.

    That said, would never do a FSBO on the seller side in a trillion years; mainly for the reasons Gil mentioned.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    • Hook 'Em 2
  15. Approaching a 3% sell-off for $GLD since Tuesday following a huge surge of purchase inflows that accompanied last week’s broad market dump….I guess people are having second thoughts and/or believe in Powell’s ability to control the madness?

    I’m a big advocate of the stability / store of value argument for gold, but this is shaping up to be a pretty shitty episode if it doesn’t improve soon.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  16. Most important: Spay/neuter ASAP once spring time rolls around…they only need to be a couple months old for eligibility. This is best possible way to prevent long-term suffering and many shelters will perform the procedure for very little cost.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  17. Adorable little girl, kudos for protecting her health and safety.

    All advice above is good, but would add the importance of getting her plenty of toys (wine corks work too!) to stay engaged/stimulated and out of trouble…but try to avoid stuff with catnip until she’s at least 6 mo’s old.

    Best wishes and god bless yall for the good deed; I wish more people were as sympathetic to homeless cats as they are with dogs.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    • Hook 'Em 2
    • Like 1
  18. RIP…always a big fan of his voice/style/image.

    I think that Nebraska game where Jamaal went wild was one of Ron’s last UT broadcasts.

    I remember being happy for JC, but also annoyed at further proof of how badly he was under utilized; which made him leave for NFL too early with a shitty draft pick. Obviously worked out ok for him with a monster pro career, but he should’ve been a superstar the moment VY departed.




    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  19. ^^^I’m curious as to what you Bronco dudes paid in relation to MSRP.

    I test drove a Sport (Big Bend) today that was priced “firm” at exactly $5k above full sticker.

    Dealer also told me that a $2.5k premium would be charged to initiate a new order from Ford (was told to expect 4-6 mo’s best case).

    Seemed outrageous on both fronts, but I guess there is still adequate demand to support that bullshit.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    Update….That Sport sold yesterday (on the lot less than 72 hrs) so evidently those hefty markups are still finding takers here in CenTex.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  20. ^^^I’m curious as to what you Bronco dudes paid in relation to MSRP.

    I test drove a Sport (Big Bend) today that was priced “firm” at exactly $5k above full sticker.

    Dealer also told me that a $2.5k premium would be charged to initiate a new order from Ford (was told to expect 4-6 mo’s best case).

    Seemed outrageous on both fronts, but I guess there is still adequate demand to support that bullshit.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  21. I also want to add that “Owner Equivalent Rent” (~24% of the basket IIRC) is an extremely shitty, wildly inaccurate way to incorporate housing/shelter costs into CPI.

    I assume this was done by design for maximum obfuscation/dilution of inflation, but still irritating to see (media) people say we are “not even close” to crisis level cost increases.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    • Hook 'Em 1
×
×
  • Create New...