It's in the numbers. I haven't run them in a couple of years, but in when I last did it in 2020:
39 G5 HC had been poached by P5 programs in the previous 10 years.
82% of those had a 10 win season within their 1st 5 years (a couple had a previous 10 W season at another G5).
The other 18% had been a coordinator at that P5, a coordinator at a Top 5 P5, had a relationship w/ a bigtime donor, or resurrected Temple.
From 2016-2020, the numbers were even more stark: 14/17 G5 -> P5 hires had a 10 win season in their 1st 5 years, 10 of those in the 1st 4 years.
Traylor and Morris are much more likely to get the gig than Kinne.
Traylor has much more experience in P4, has 5+ years as HC w/ proven results: 2 Conf Titles; 12, 11, 9 win seasons; 6 bowl games. UTSA has shit NIL and a G5 coach that doesn't move up after winning 10 games is more likely to be fired than find long term success at that G5 (couldn't see that there, but just saying). Pat Hill types are rare.
Morris has 5+ years HC experience, more P5 experience, was absolutely the UIW architect, and most importantly, can probably bring his QB with him. Same recruiting area. Also, UNT and Denton are a dump in tornado alley. He's getting paid peanuts @ $1.3M.
Kinne was an early adopter of the portal, and it's worked well for us, but on a razor's edge. Only 3 years of HC experience. 4-6 vs 0.500+ teams, 2-0 in bowl games, does have a P4 W. My biggest complaint: losses to really shitty teams last year kept us from that 10 win mark. I personally think he's waiting for Baylor.