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Viper

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Posts posted by Viper

  1. Ahmed talking about the air drops

    he quotes a gazan resident:

    I’ve received dozens of videos & messages from Gazans in the north who collected airdropped food and expressed immense gratitude that someone is thinking about them and actually doing something to support their perseverance in their homes and besieged territories/lands. Here’s what my friend Reham, a 25-year-old young lady who is an electrical engineer stuck in northern Gaza, told me about her experience collecting airdropped food: “While I have to push my way through mostly men to get some boxes for my family, I have been able to bring more supplies for our family than my own able-bodied brothers have. There is something beautiful about airplanes over Gaza dropping items that help sustain us instead of bombs that seek to kill us; bombs fall quickly towards their targets, while airdropped food slowly descends to the ground with parachutes; it’s nice to know that some airplanes are capable of merciful objectives when we’re used to them being instruments of death. We are grateful to all countries helping us stay alive and urge you to keep going and never stop. Daytime food airdrops are a glimmer of hope amidst a sea of desperation, isolation, and destitution.”

     

     

    • Hook 'Em 3
  2. 2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

    Yep, sure does. I did not know we were using them for this. Have only seen video and reports saying C-130's. Thanks for enlarging this image.

    I've seen reports that the US is only using 130s, that UAE and maybe Jordan are using the 17s

  3. Russia trying to stay relevant and throw a wrench into anything that looks like a win for the US, all the while torching their relations with Israel

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1763116222256701787.html

    Quote

     

    All eyes on #Putin speech and #Transnistria today.

    But something else is happening in Moscow:
    +10 Palestinian groups - including #Hamas & Islamic Jihad (PIJ) - are hosted by Russia for mediation talks.

    What's #Russia up to? How's it linked to #Ukraine? And can it succeed? 🧵/1
    The intra-Palestinian meeting in Moscow has precedent

    Russia's hosted such meetings in the past, most recently Feb 2019

    Russia has long lamented the US' "monopolization" of the peace process & tried to carve out a niche for itself: mediating among the disunited Palestinians/2
    That Hamas & PIJ sit at the table is also no surprise:

    Russia has never declared either a terrorist organization

    #Hamas delegations have frequented Moscow since 2006

    Since Oct 7, Hamas reps have been to Moscow 3x - this will be the 4th visit - a slap into #Israel's face /3
    Why is Russia hosting this meeting now?

    First, this is a continuation of #Russia's pro-Palestinian posturing since Oct 7.

    Russia's slowness and reluctance to call out Hamas' terrorism broke with historical precedent, as I showed here: /4
    Unroll available on Thread Reader

    Since Oct 7, Russia has:
    -accused the West of double standards re: #Ukraine vs. #Gaza
    -postured as the defender of Palestinians at the UN
    thereby tapping into powerful grievances over Gaza worldwide & cynically exploiting the war for its own ends: /5

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/26/opinion/putin-russia-gaza-israel.html
    The temptation to exploit anti-Western sentiments over #Gaza has been so powerful that Russia has been willing to sacrifice its (once good) relations w/#Israel

    These relations have been very rocky since Oct 7 & we probably haven't reached the bottom: /6

    Second, #Russia is hosting the intra-Palestinian meeting to stay relevant in the unfolding regional diplomacy.

    The US has been highly active (toward ceasefire, hostage release deal, "day after") - at the highest level - and Russia doesn't want to cede the scene entirely. /7
    But what can Russia achieve?

    The Palestinian reps now in Moscow are senior (Mousa Abu Marzouk for #Hamas, Azzam al-Ahmad for #Fatah etc.), but they're not the key decision-makers.

    Also, Russia's not hosting this at the highest level - Deputy FM Bogdanov is involved... /8
    ...but there won't be any meeting with #Putin.
    Clearly, this is not a Russian priority.

    Russia also lacks leverage. At the last intra-Palestinian mtg, Russia failed to get the groups to a joint declaration

    It can't offer the Palestinians econ. incentives (unlike Saudi/UAE) /9
    That said, Moscow's doing sth. no one else can/wants to do: bring Hamas & PIJ - the #Iran-backed groups - to the table

    Some Arab media also rumored that the resignation of Palestinian PM Shtayyeh earlier this week might have been timed so as to give the Moscow talks a chance /10
    I doubt that.

    Still, #Russia says the talks aim at reaching a *general agreement* on the formation of a unified Palestinian technocratic government

    But even if they succeed: #Israel's made clear that any Palestinian entity containing elements of Hamas/PIJ is simply a no-go. /11
    What does the region think?

    The Arab states - criticising the US for its one-sided backing of #Israel & long agonising over the US' purported unreliability as an ally - welcome a greater Russian & Chinese role in regional diplomacy. As a matter of rhetoric. /12
    But when push comes to shove, all eyes are on Washington

    In my various engagements with interlocutors from the Gulf/Egypt recently, no one is seriously looking toward Moscow to diffuse tensions

    And Israel will likely reject any Russian mediation role toward the "day after" /13
    Where does this leave us?

    #Russia will continue -without spending much pol. capital- to signal its backing for the Palestinians

    But more importantly: whatever diplomatic processes materialize (Israel-Palestinian or regional), Russia will have the back of #Iran & its partners/14
    As @HamidRezaAz & I just argued, in light of its war against #Ukraine, Russia "will try to throw wrenches into any coming diplomatic efforts that would smell of American success or would seek to sideline the axis of resistance."

    /END

     

     

    • Rage+1 1
  4. strategic look at the war post-avdiivka

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1762930018819121615.html?utm_campaign=topunroll

    Quote

    Key insights from our analysis (Complete report accessible on the website provided in my bio) concerning the post-Avdiivka situation, fortifications, and anticipations.

    Kindly consider liking, sharing, and following us for better visibility.

    🧵Thread:

    2/ While some argue that the withdrawal was timely, our assessment suggests that an earlier retreat could have reduced losses. Some interviewed participants reported not receiving official orders and chose to retreat at their discretion due to the deteriorating tactical situation 

    3/ After the fall of Avdiivka, Russian forces continued to advance. As of this analysis, settlements like Sjeverne, Lastochkyne, and Stepove are now under Russian control. Others, including Orlivka and Berdychi, remain contested as of February 27, 2024.

    4/ As shown in the satellite image, the presence of fires and scorch marks extending beyond Orlivka signifies a rapid effort by Russian forces to disrupt communications with the settlement and cause harm to defenders. Additional reports suggest that Semenivka is targeted by KABs 

    5/ This assertion is also backed by FIRMS data from NASA, which identifies and maps "thermal anomalies" on the ground. Utilizing this data, we have created a visual representation of the image, depicting "thermal anomalies" like fires or explosions over the past 24 hours.

    image.thumb.png.77f31a862fe2173012b671036e602a56.png

    6/ Frontelligence Insight notes an otable deficiency of robust fortifications, involving concrete and wooden structures on the Ukrainian side. Reports consistently indicate that combat-involved brigades are assigned to construct these defenses in their rear areas. 

    7/ Constructing strategic defensive positions requires a multifaceted and professional approach beyond military efforts alone. Essential needs encompass specialized equipment like bulldozers, excavators, cranes, concrete production, trucks, wood, and logistics. 

    8/. Addressing this issue demands political will and the involvement of national leadership to mobilize civilian resources. Additionally, joint efforts with the Ministry of Defense are necessary to secure the resources needed for the procurement of such a serious project 

    9/ The Near Prospects

    Our team observes that due to relatively dry weather, the fields are rapidly drying up, enabling the advance of Russian forces. Contrary to expectations that the muddy season might impede their progress, unfortunately, that is not the case at this moment. 

    10/ Russian forces suffered disproportionately high losses during the assault on Avdiivka. According to our team's geospatial observations, the estimated number of lost vehicles by the Russian side exceeds ~300. OSINT analyst @naalsio26 suggests that the number is over ~600.

    image.thumb.png.abd1200e2f05430b69d60d55cdb95468.png

    11/ The quality of new recruits in the Russian army continues to deteriorate. As previously reported, in the final phase of the battle for Avdiivka, a group of POWs captured in February had been recruited to the Russian military in mid-January. 

    12/ The situation for Ukrainian forces remains highly challenging, characterized by delayed mobilization, inadequate fortification construction, missteps during the 2023 campaign, and notably, a critical failure of partners to deliver promised ammunition despite prior commitments 

    13/ Ukraine is likely to face additional territorial losses, especially in areas gained during the summer of 2023 and in proximity to Donetsk. However, we do not anticipate the front collapse, as Russians allocate resources disproportionately, even for relatively minor gains. 

    14/ Despite trying to capitalize on the most favorable situation since 2022, they lack the necessary scale to generate a strategic collapse. A situation could still be favorable for Ukraine if the West provides substantial military aid to back domestic mobilization efforts. 

    15/ Consider supporting us through BuyMeaCoffee, as our expenses rely solely on your public support. As the war continues, public financial support is decreasing as well.

     

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  5. 54 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

    Pretty disingenuous to imply that the IDF is lending any sort of assistance here, besides not blowing the planes out of the sky (out of the kindness of their hearts, I'm sure) considering the only reason these air drops are even necessary is the IDF's flat refusal to facilitate aid deliveries in the first place.

    Not really. The IDF was involved and it shows their issue with aid was that it was going primarily to Hamas and not to people as reports on the ground indicate

     

    4 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

    The country committing mass genocide equates to the allies in this comparison? Not the 2 countries that committed mass genocide? Interesting. 

    Hamas isn't a country

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