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BLKNSTY

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by BLKNSTY

  1. What are you basing this on?
    Dollar to Euro is in a similar range since 2015.  Same with Dollar to AUD, Japanese Yen, SK Won.
    It has strengthen significantly against South American Currencies in a similar time frame but not the rest of the world.  

    Collective basket of foreign currencies on market watch. We’re up 16% YOY and the chart looks like we’re right at 20 year highs. With us increasing rates while the rest of the world not, should be a steady grind up for the for the foreseeable future unless things drastically change. And even if things do drastically change, chances are those events would further strengthen the dollar.


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  2. We have: an incredibly strong dollar, sustained high levels of inflation, rising interest rates, stock market off by 15% from recent highs with tech stocks down 30%, high fuel costs, very low unemployment, a record number of job openings, rising wages, stagnant economic growth, commercial real estate sitting at 40% leased, residential real estate coming off a multi-year tear, treasury rates at all time highs, a bloated fed balance sheet with a plan to shed some assets.

    Not including anything geopolitical/political, anything else y’all would include?


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  3. Not sure I buy this.  Well could be Russian propaganda they can deny.  Shitty though the Russian orthodox church has been, this seems a pander too far. 
    If true, I’m happy to add to the list of Russian religious martyrs. 

    It ain’t that much different here chief… only thing holding it back from being this egregious is the chance of losing your tax exempt status.

    no cr, just want to point out that it’s pretty damn believable from where I’m sittin’

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  4. the worlds richest man basically bought all our DMs and took the company private. Twitter doesn’t use end to end encryption on DMs so that shit is wide tf open to anyone who has access. 100% private company with minimal oversight.

    yeah yeah I know, what about Zuck? I don’t think that’s exactly the same - it’s a public company with a board and Zuck has at least some track record. Shareholders and fiduciary responsibility etc. yeah yeah companies are already making bank off my data but that’s keywords or some dude making $35k a year who has no beef with me reading about how I’d eat my coworkers ass on a silver plate. yeah yeah what about Bezos? I dont DM on Amazon and I could give two fucks about WP as I’ve never even visited their website.

    I have absolutely no doubt this shit is going to end badly. Some real sensitive DMs bout to get leaked. Genuine question, what’s stopping Elon from busting open all the DMs of anyone who’s looked at him sideways/his competitors/governments and politicians capable of being blackmailed and fucking up their shit? This some NSA level access but at least we can chalk that up to terrorism.

    I know the legal system is there but this mf really called a guy a pedo on Twitter and still one the defamation suit.

    I’m in for the ride though baby, crank up that simulation shit baby

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  5. Good call. Headed to $8/mcf today. What’s driving the spike in the NG market? LNG exports to Europe? Low domestic inventories? Rampant speculation? Some analysts still have it pegged below $5 in the future.


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    we are producing more nat gas today than at any point in our history. US production is up 2.5x since 2012, the last time we had pricey nat gas for any extended period of time. so there’s that nugget.


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  6. The thing that drives me batty about the people complaining that Biden caused inflation by "printing money" completely ignore that the majority of stimulus checks and PPP loans were doled out during the Trump administration.
    And I'm not blaming Trump necessarily, so much as I'm pointing out that he "printed money" as much as anyone and the loudest critics of this policy conveniently forget it.
     

    bro let’s not even talk about the 3 years of fucking useless trade wars and tariffs. Nope that didn’t impact inflation. /s

    China is below their nonbinding ag trade thresholds, Canada ain’t buying our milk, Mexico ain’t buying our cars, and we still ain’t making any steel stateside.
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  7. Yes, why not have cake and eat it too?  I don’t care about restrictions. It will exacerbate the already-overwhelming increasing price trend. That’s fine by me. The crude oil export ban is incredibly dumb. The world doesn’t work like that. It’s a global commodity and always will be. Guys like Putin don’t run our world. We would eradicate any WWIII threat with haste.
    You seem like you know some things reasonably well, but you’ve erected this odd straw man that isn’t even a part of the equation. I can’t remember why Obama did that, but it was yet another idiotic thing a Democrat President did that served some individual political goal, didn't work, didn’t last, and probably increased prices which wasn’t the expected goal. Q4’2014 was when the downturn started though. 

    Oil at $110+ for any extended period of time accelerates demand destruction tremendously and Russia fucking cemented that for at least 2 to 3 years. I don’t think that’s good for O&G. We can ease domestic hurdles all we want but domestic motor gasoline consumption, which is by far the biggest consumer of crude oil, has been relatively flat at 9 million barrels a day since around 2008.

    the odd straw man argument isn’t really a straw man. Dems need a reason to ease domestic production or they’ll be facing an internal revolt. but if I’m a Dem, I wouldn’t do that without knowing for sure gasoline prices will come back down. The math says easing domestic hurdles alone aren’t going to do shit cause none of it will stay here. So not only will they get dragged for high gasoline prices from both the right and the left, it’ll look like they turned their back to their treehugger base. Literally a lose lose. At least with the status quo they can keep some of their base happy.

    Otherwise the dems can point to Russia as a reason to switch to electric, and at these oil prices + tax breaks and EV subsidies - it’s a damn good proposition.


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  8. First of all, why not both?  Why is one (easing domestic production hurdles) tied to the other (restricting export) in your argument?
    But I'll take a stab.  More of something means cheaper prices assuming demand remains the same.  And oil/gas is a global market regardless of our export, or lack of export, restrictions.  And demand worldwide is highly inelastic.  The price goes up and people just pay it and if its a business or production input the increase just gets passed on down.  So if we produce more oil and gas and everyone else stays the same, it gets cheaper eventually.  Smarter people than me have posted reasons why you can't index the price at the pump to the price of oil in this thread.
    If the gloves were off for US producers in terms of no more restricting federal leases, no slow playing permits and no ESG bullshit choking financing and investment and we embraced the fact that a barrel of oil not produced here is a barrel that will be produced elsewhere, if possible, then we would see prices fall over time.  Nothing anyone can do is going to reduce the price people pay at the pump over night.
    As for pipelines...they are objectively safer and more efficient than literally every other means of transport.  So, do with that what you will if you are wondering why Keystone XL got torpedoed.

    the reason as to why not both is that it’s just a hypothetical negotiation between the left and the right in terms of what can we do to help bring down gasoline prices today. In this hypothetical situation in which you were the single decision maker for the entire o&g market, would you take a deal that said we’ll ease domestic production hurdles in return for reinstating the crude oil export ban?

    If I represent the o&g folks, to me, it’s not even a question. I’m fighting tooth and nail to never ever ever give up that ability to export crude oil. At the same time I’d be controlling the narrative in the sense that I’d be paying my senators to say the domestic hurdles are the reason why gasoline and nat gas prices are high. It’s too easy. A+B=C

    You look at the WTI/Brent spread from 2011 to now, it’s basically gone from $10-$20 to $2-$5. We have literally pushed crude oil to more of a global commodity when at least in the past we had a little delta. I don’t think that’s a good thing for Americans in general. I think that is a direct result of the revocation of the crude oil export ban. We are more exposed to KSA and OPEC now than we ever have been, and even if we opened the production spigot by easing domestic hurdles, it wouldn’t make a lick of difference cause now we no longer have to just balance US production/consumption - we have to balance the global demand.

    again just a hypothetical, let’s not think through the legal headaches and the lawyers we would pay literal billions to think through force majure and shit.

    also, this is just applicable to crude oil. I’m a big fan of LNG personally. I think we flare too much ng and getting actual useful energy out of that in whatever form we can is a tremendous net positive.

    long oil IMO cause we’re never going to reinstate the export ban. I bought a ton of Magnolia O&G mid Covid cause I loved their senior leadership and I’m holding on forever. $1 bet that 5 years from now domestic crude production will be up another 25% but crude oil will still be $100+. But we’ll still be bitching about these domestic hurdles.


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  9. question to the pro-oil guys here, say you get what you want - no activist ESG initiatives, ramp up of banks investing in production, streamlined permitting, Keystone and other pipelines, hell even US DOE backed funding for retrofitting of refiners to process our domestically produced light sweet crude.

    But the trade off is we reinstate the crude oil export ban that Obama did away with back in 2014 I think. And yes I know this doesn’t apply to nat gas.

    We are currently exporting around 4 million bbls/day of crude oil. Up from about 0.5 in 2014.

    We are currently exporting around 12 bcf/day of LNG. Up from about 0 in 2014. Nat gas via pipeline is around 8 bcf/day, up from about 6 in 2014.

    And we’re also producing more crude oil and nat gas today than we were in 2014, even though our internal consumption has remained relatively flat. Yet we’re paying $5/gal and $6/mmbtu

    we know for a fact that nat gas and crude oil are priced on the marginal cost to produce (i.e the cost to produce the last bbl/mmbtu needed to balance the market more or less sets the price of the first produces).

    cause here’s where I’m coming from - can’t have your cake and eat it too. We can’t be out here saying American independence, lower prices when we know all of the incremental production is headed towards international markets which frankly makes a ton of sense/is big oils right since we’re all capitalists.

    My belief is that even if we remove all those impediments and don’t reinstate the crude oil ban - the days of $3 gasoline/nat gas are firmly behind us without some black swan demand destruction (i.e. COVID) event. I’d argue that this is actually anti-American in a way since we’re still getting fucked by high gasoline prices since big oil makes better returns/better financing cause of a forward sold contract going international plus the additional pollution in our local environment so that a subsection of oil and gas producers and mineral right owners make off like bandits. So as long as the crude oil exports are still in the picture - I’m having a tough time believing that big oil will take pity on us Americans and our $5 gasoline/nat gas so they are better served blaming ESG and permitting (i.e. controlling the narrative/deflecting)

    Would love to here from the experts on where I’m wrong.


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  10. I played golf at Torrey Pines last Monday. We got paired with a Japanese couple in their 70's that had an extremely difficult time speaking English. Yet, when they introduced themselves, they were Chris and Monica. So maybe Bert is common?

    This forum is wild man. I also played Torrey last Monday and know exactly who you are talking about.

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  11. Anyone following the Sentinel One IPO? Competitor to ZScaler and Crowdstrike in endpoint security. Should be in a few weeks.

    I’m batting 0/1 with IPOs this year after CoinBase and down about 30%. I thought was a pretty sure thing so I backed up the Brink truck and rode that Motherfucker alllll the way down.


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  12. [mention=1693]NOMAAA[/mention] [mention=1775]Angry Gorilla[/mention] [mention=191]huge[/mention] [mention=509]henrygandorf[/mention] [mention=131]PhillyD[/mention] [mention=2880]ZB'Tejas[/mention] [mention=207]Baboontyme[/mention] [mention=932]MonkeyDoughnut[/mention] [mention=6221]Here for Zed[/mention] [mention=5644]Da Fino[/mention] [mention=1656]Mr Bean[/mention] [mention=1301]SquishMitten[/mention] [mention=939]BLKNSTY[/mention]
    I'm putting in a bid to buy the horse I mentioned earlier: Sweet Dragon. https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/20200
    Happy to sell shares.  Looks like it could be around $1700-1800 in total. Plus entry fees. 

    My bad man, just adjusted my notifications so this won’t get lost in the mix moving forward. I’m still interested if you’re still looking.
  13. Anything wrong with yolo etf for weed play?

    MSOS, MSOS, MSOS. The future of US weed is Cresco, Trulieve, Green Thumb, and Curaleaf. They will be the Walmart, Target, Costco, and Kroger of weed in the US. And those are MSOS’s top 4 holdings.
    I could see diversifying but I honestly wouldn’t touch those Canadian Producers.
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  14. Anyone familiar with the nat gas companies who are somehow able to sell into this $1,000 per dth nat gas market? I mean, you have to have gas flowing that’s not sold forward, a pipeline that isn’t frozen, and the ability to transport, right?

    Is it the gas processors like DCP, Enterprise, Williams, Targa or the small/midsize producers like Magnolia and Devon?


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