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alexis texas

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Everything posted by alexis texas

  1. Here's historical data from the Hunt flood gage and the annual exceedance probability for each flood event. You can find that data here: https://streamstats.usgs.gov/ss/?gage=08165300&tab=plots
  2. If a building is outside the 100-year floodplain, that same building cannot also be in the floodway. The floodway/floodplain boundaries you are referencing are from the 2011 FEMA FIRM that uses less accurate topographic data. The current FEMA Base Level Engineering modeling has more accurate and up to date information. The next time this FIRM panel gets updated, the boundaries will likely more closely match the info shown in the BLE modeling. You can find the BLE model info here: https://webapps.usgs.gov/infrm/estbfe/
  3. I put all that together. Initially I did it for myself to try and understand what/how/why the tragedy happened. Now as more and more misinformation is reported as fact by the media, I felt like people could benefit from an analysis from someone other than a professor of political science or climate change researcher (those are the "flood experts" quoted in all the news articles). There is nothing nefarious about removing structures from the 100-year floodplain boundary. This process involves a Licensed Surveyor finding the lowest ground elevation outside each building and comparing that to the BFE. If the ground is higher than the BFE, then the floodplain boundary was drawn incorrectly (FEMA calls this an inadvertent inclusion), and the structure is removed/exempted from the 100-year floodplain. There is no “advocacy” or “tailoring site-specific analysis” involved in that process. Just simply comparing ground elevations to the FEMA BFE. The next time a new FIRM map gets published, it will have a more accurate boundary drawn now that they use LIDAR elevation data instead of the old USGS topography maps with 20ft contour intervals.
  4. The cabin floor of all the cabins appears to be above the 100-year Base Flood Elevation (BFE). The roadway along the 3 cabins closest to the river was slightly below the BFE, so those cabins were evacuated first. http://pxl.to/Mystic-FEMA-flood-map-analysis Historically, the flash flood warnings have rarely resulted in any flooding of significance and many of those warnings included the same "life threatening" language. http://pxl.to/Mystic-NWS-Flash-Flood-Warning-Analysis When considering the information from above, combined with the weather forecast that did not predict anywhere near a 500-year rain event, it seems reasonable to use a phased cabin evacuation approach. The only information they had to act on was visually observing the water level of the river. The combination of the rapid rate of water rise and total amount of rise made evacuation difficult. There likely was not enough time to change plans by the time they realized how serious the flooding was. Here is an estimated timelapse video in 10 minute increments: http://pxl.to/Mystic-flood-timelapse-video https://pxl.to/mystic-4d-timeline I think the phased evacuation might have been successful in either of these scenarios: Rapid rate of rise but max flood height only reaching somewhere between the 100-year and 500-year flood elevation. The ground outside Twins/Bubble was about 3ft above BFE and the floor was another 2ft higher. These cabins would be the last to flood and would be safe for flood heights up to 7ish feet above BFE (the July 4 flood was about 11 feet above BFE). 30ft rise but slower rate of rise. That would give them time to make it safely to the Rec Hall where the 2nd floor was above the 500-year flood elevation. Unfortunately, the river rose extremely rapidly and higher than it ever had before with little warning. Here is a overall big picture analysis of the flood event. https://pxl.to/mystic-analysis
  5. Here are a couple additional maps from the FEMA estBFE Viewer which show that this flood was likely closer to a 500 year flood event than a 100 year flood event. Most current building codes require the ground floor of buildings to be at least 1 to 2 feet higher than the 100 year BFE.
  6. Here is a "timelapse" video of the water elevations in 1 meter increments. The FEMA flood map has the base flood elevation between 1840' ASL near the Hwy 39 river crossing and 1835' ASL near the Mystic dam. As best as I can tell based on the ground elevations and pictures of the water level in some of the cabins, this seems to be more than a 100 year or 500 year flood event. For example, the ground elevation around Wiggle Inn cabin is at least 1860' and the water level was a foot below the door (1865' ASL or higher). That's at least 15ft higher than the 100 year base flood elevation. Disclaimer: I am not claiming to be a flood expert. These are just my observations based on the info that is currently publicly available (FEMA flood maps, Google Earth, and photos from after the flood.) Mystic Elevations.mp4
  7. Here are a few flood maps that should help clarify the layout of the camp.
  8. Is there any benefit to being a Texas Ex’s member? The Longhorn foundation makes it clear what the benefits are at each donation level, but the perks of a Texas Ex’s life membership are unclear. Bumper sticker street cred?
  9. I called the longhorn foundation shortly after your post and someone had already snatched them. The seat selection process seems like a flawed system. My selection time already occurred so I picked the best seats available at that time but wasn't able to get anything in the club sections. You can't view the available inventory after selecting seats, so there really isn't a feasible way to change to better seats if something comes available later. I guess next year my strategy will be to not select seats right away and just keep checking periodically for new inventory. The only downside to that strategy would be potentially missing out on an LBJ parking lot pass.
  10. Last week the LHF website briefly showed the 2025 pricing for club seats. The seat gift will say the same but the ticket price will increase to $815 (from $735 last year) for the top level club seats. They didn't post the full seat map but I would guess prices for regular seats will also increase by about 10%.
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