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FondrenRoad

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Posts posted by FondrenRoad

  1. 2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

    But we don't have enough information to know whether or not prioritizing first shots in NYC would remove second shots from the highest risk populations, correct? Because if not, then we don't have enough information to judge what they're doing.

    NYC is in phase 1b which is essentially people who have non-medical jobs with a high risk of exposure and people over 65.  The second shots would be removed from phase 1a people who are primarily medical personnel. 

    There are other logistical problems that don't fit Ana's narrative either since, in theory, eligible people could magically transport into a vaccine site. In reality, they are already having to retool registration because people over 65 haven't been able to figure it out.  But once they figure it out, the doses still don't yet exist. 

    The primary reason for releasing the numbers was to cajole more doses out of the distribution decision makers. They signed people up based on the expectation that NY state would continue to receive 300k doses a week. Now NY state receives 250k doses a week..  If they dont get at least the original distribution amount per week, they will be canceling both first and second dose appointments out of necessity. 0 doses equals 0 arms.  Around 25k were canceled already.  They are already making either/or decisions on who receives a vaccine, and there isn't anything sitting around more than a week. These are earmarked for existing appointments. It isnt a first come first serve line. 

  2. 1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

    If you just read the headline and innocently think, well, hopefully it's just about a random bump in a crowd. It's not

    giphy.gif

    How is 3 years time even "stringent?"  Seems to be a shitty ruling. Probably some caste info missing. The top castes can still do almost whatever they want to lower castes in spite of supposed modernization. 

  3. 25 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

    But see, the Bernie Bros get upset when everything they want isn't done immediately.  They don't understand that the government doesn't work like a green lantern ring.

    Lately the problem is that the government doesn't work at all. It would be helpful if 40% of voters didn't vote for outright disfunction. It used to be a slow moving dinosaur, but now it's a dead dinosaur. 

  4. 21 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

    I always enjoy the watch talk.  A watch any better than a Seiko is something I'm utterly uninterested in purchasing, but that's only because my phone tells me everything I need to know.  It's just not my thing.

    I'm pretty sure most guys who happily drop $5K on a watch would look at me like I'm from Mars if I dropped $5K on a guitar.  Different strokes.  Joe Biden can wear whatever the hell he wants on his wrist.

    Unless he wears a burlap sack and drives an 85 Pinto, he can't possibly represent the people. 

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  5. 4 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

    So what is it, 50% chance Trump sold vaccines under the table for a kickback and 50% chance they originally miscounted because they’re idiots?

    I would put those odds at about 99.9%.  I wouldn't be surprised if there have already been multiple vaccine parties throughout the Trump and Kushner properties.  And there have also probably been a bunch of shipments finding their way onto Aeroflot flights without seeing customs. 

  6. 1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

     

    The modeling tells us that we need to get shots in arms and do our best to manage the supply chain. It is not just one analysis, there are a few pointing the same direction. Vaccines don't do anything sitting in a freezer. Nothing I am saying is particularly contrarian or controversial. The CDC guidance is now talking about extended intervals and starting to consider mixed regimens in extenuating circumstances. The Israeli data as well as the trial-based clinical data indicates risk reduction after first shot. 3-4k people are dying on a daily basis. Don't let perfect be the enemy of good in the setting of a global pandemic.    

     

    Go back and respond directly to every sentence in that post. Otherwise just shut the fuck up. 

  7. 4 minutes ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

    Anastasis makes threads unreadable and it's fucking tiresome ... puts his predictable take out but can never, ever let it rest...literally has to respond to every fucking single post that doesn't validate his stance. Ignore finger getting real itchy... 

    Under that, there is a real guy with a lot of knowledge who can provide a lot to this board. Sometimes like today I try to get him to be that real guy on here, but it never works out. He doesn't drop character until he's done the DVD commentary.  So it's a waste of my time and yours. So I apologize to you for carrying this on. 

  8. 30 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

    Build more strawmen, please. The modeling is pretty straightforward. Inconvenient to your position, but straightforward. Shots sitting in reserves are wasted time. Whether they are in NYC or Florida or an APH locker. Your continued ad hominem only highlights the weakness of your position.  

    Ad hominem is only necessary because you ignore direct questions and avoid responding to statements for which you have no rebuttal.  Then you post mostly bullshit like the post I am quoting here which really says absolutely nothing. The only thing worse than an ad hominem attack is the belief that pointing out the existence of the attack is a sufficient rebuttal.

    The conversation we are having here is pretty simple. You commented on a post about NY. You didn't know the overall numbers in NY.  When I told you them, you ignored them because you don't want to now admit that people should actually be getting their 2nd dose this week from that 200k.  You wouldn't even have to say you were wrong. You could just say you lacked the facts which would be true, but you can't even do that. 

    If you wanted to talk about theory, you have to abandon the specific hill that you are trying to die on. You didn't comment on Florida or an APH locker. It doesn't make you less of a man to admit that NYC should administer second doses on schedule this week rather than sticking an entirely brand new 200k people.  I've already said the model you desire has merit. I even said NYC was using it. Past tense.  And it failed due to supply chain failures. So we could still have that theoretical conversation. 

    Quit being a pussy. 

  9. 1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

    Florida should get their shit together if they are sitting on reserves. This is not a political position. But more keywords please.  

    You're a "data" guy. How do you not know about Florida's reserves?  Also reserves is the wrong term for them. They arent saving it purposefully. They are instead going full Florida on scheduling, distribution, and administration. I guess they expect people to pick it up from the warehouse themselves. I'll gladly have them ship them up to NY so we can "stick them in arms."

    Also someone who says shit like St Ouchy Fauci should really stfu about political positions. You are one of the most politically aligned people on this board.  But I get it. You've posted 100 times now about NY and fuck all about FL even though you know all the "data."  But when called on it, a meek "Florida is bad too" is heard. You claim to dislike Birx just as much as Fauci, but have also spent the last few pages blasting Fauci alone. Birx sometimes gets a tiny criticism when you get caught.  That's pretty much your MO for every topic. Like I said, you do have good points sometimes, but you blew your credibility. It makes you entirely untrustworthy. You should create a sock and let him be the "data" guy. Qnastasis is a hack who drives things toward the right by attacking anything center left. 

    And the q was a typo but it fits so I'm leaving it. 

  10. 7 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

    St. Ouchy Fauci has already proclaimed it. Your math is fucked though.  You should get whatever shot is first available to you. 

    Also while we are talking about NYC using theirs up, and having the gall to keep some ready for scheduled appointments this week, Florida is sitting on way more of theirs. You should take your "shots in arms" battle to them. If only "both sides" was actually true for you instead of just being a thinly veiled way to attack Democrats or the "left."

    Much like you seem to have given Fauci a pet name, but nothing so cute for Birx.  Sure. Both sides. Fauci isn't even a Dem or leftist. He earned your ire simply because he insulted your godking. 

    As for me, I'm lucky to be healthy and also able to work from home easily. I won't be eligible until the summer at the earliest no matter what happens to the limbo olds right now.  I won't be in a big hurry even when I am eligible. May wait for my actual doctor to have it. 

  11. 32 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

    You are either misrepresenting or being outright dishonest.  I have never advocated for straying from the two shot regimen for PFE and MRNA shots. JNJ will likely/hopefully have an EUA in February for a one shot regimen. That will free up PFE and MRNA second doses. Again, the models are quite clear on the optimal vaccination approach.  Get shots in arms. 

    Right, you said that. It will take 85 weeks for all NYC residents to get first shots at the current availability rate.  I guess second shots will start in the 86th week. Is 86 weeks in your flexibility window?  

    So answer the question. Which arm is more important?  The one that needs a first dose or the one that needs a second dose?  Dr Anastasis only gets 1 dose a day. Every day he gets 3 brand new patients and he sees a patient who needs a second dose. Who does he give his shot to each day?  The drug company says they'll give him more doses in time but he used to get 2 and now he only gets 1 so can he be sure?

    The models you posted assume that some if not most 2nd doses will actually still occur.  They assume a functional and increasing supply chain which doesn't currently exist.  A measured approach is better until it does. NYC could sign up 5 mllion people tomorrow.  They have 100k doses per week.  This is the math you keep avoiding.  There is already a 450k backlog of people awaiting a 2nd dose. Literally zero of them will get a second dose without one being reserved for a week.  Some of them probably already won't get a second dose the way things currently look. And that number will only increase as you use up the weekly 100k for more first doses.  Maybe instead, you think some people should get a 2nd dose and others shouldn't. How are you going to make that decision?  I guess a zero priority method could work if it wasn't appointment based. And lines would eliminate most of the 2nd doses too. I can't imagine waiting in a week-long line in 30 degree weather twice.  Personally, I would wait another whole year before I waited in that line even once. 

    And yes, eventually there will be at least one single dose vaccine on the market. February is pretty optimistic. But if it does then great. The math tells me to wait for that one instead of getting caught in limbo with the current ones.  

  12. 1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

    The math says that NYC is better off getting shots in arms as quickly as possible. Additional EUAs for one shot regimens will further impact the calculation. If you want to view this as a math equation, the solution is pretty clear. Get the first shots in arms ASAP.  

    In your last several posts you've slipped down the slope from, let the supply chain work because the second dose will be there when its needed, all the way down to we don't really need second doses anyway.  The truth is that if you want second doses for anyone at all, you are going to need to reserve some for that given the current supply. And when I say "reserve", I dont mean that your second dose is held for you when you get your first. We are talking about less than a week here at most. 

    At the current rate of production, if they get ahead more than they already have, there will be zero people who will receive a 2nd vaccine.  And it will still take 85 weeks just to get everyone a first shot. You do know how many people live in NYC, right?

    You do also know that they followed your trust the supply chain suggestion and not only have you failed to increase the number of doses, you've actually decreased them. 

    You also dont understand how humans behave. Turning away people who have appointments for a second dose will create a shitshow of animosity. Pushing back first appointments won't. Until you can prove that a single dose provides the same level of immunity as two doses, nobody is going to get back to life after just one dose that wasn't already painting the town red during the whole pandemic. 

    The bottom line is that production needs to increase dramatically. The new take seems to be akin to, "I know we said you needed two before, and I know we said the second was important, but since we can only produce enough for one, we now say you only need one."  That messaging will work really well.  Hopefully, this will all be academic and the people who actually produce things in your industry will get things ramped up.  That way we can have the increasing supply we were promised and get on the accelerated schedule we desire.  Because even you, currently in full CYA mode, actually want 2 shots for everyone.

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  13. 1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

     

    Ad hominem when you cannot argue the data and modeling. Be best man. I've been advocating the get shots in arms strategy for a while now.  I don't need tweets to inform my position. But if you keep throwing out keywords, maybe you can get some likes. 

    There is a 450k backlog of people waiting for second shots in NY.  There are 200k shots available for that and another 100k promised this week which will be split with first shots. Do the math.  They have already gotten well out in front of it and given out a lot more 1st shots than the on-hand supply dictated. And now the supply chain is failing. NY State's allotment has dropped to 250k a week from 300k a week so NYC's share has dropped to 100k a week. 

    In order to "get shots in arms," one must first have shots.  For an alleged "data" guy, you are willfully ignorant of the actual numbers.  They followed your plan and hoped that manufacturers would keep up.  They set up 24/7 sites and have the staff ready to administer vaccines around the clock. But your plan is failing. At a time when total doses need to be increasing, they are actually decreasing.  And this week, the first big second dose wave is scheduled to start. So why would you push them off only to add more piranhas waiting to eat at a continuously diminishing feed trough?  Until you can deliver well more than 100k doses a week to NYC, this is what you are gonna get. It will take 170 weeks to vaccinate everyone fully at that rate. And right now, you are headed in the wrong direction. 

    The whole point of the tweet is to guilt the supply chain to throw more their way. And it will work, but there still won't be enough to even come close to the desired schedule. 

  14. 25 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

    My dog died pre covid.  I never really felt the urge to make out with her. You think that the inhumane practices that have led to multiple outbreaks of coronavirus disease can be hand waved, while you posture a wrong headed position in vaccine strategy. Do you man. 

    And you have zero credibility because you have spent the entirety of your existence trying to ride the fence between "both sides."  Whether you have a valid point now or not is irrelevant. You are about as trustworthy as Trump.  Hopefully, you are a better person in real life. 

    As for the 200k, should they cancel the second appointments which are currently happening?  So tomorrow, they should tell those people to fuck off because the first shot people are more important?  Let's make that backlog 650k instead of the 450k it currently is.  Then when that additional 100k doses come in, I dont see why anyone should get a 2nd shot then either. No 2nd shots for anyone until everyone has a 1st shot.  Anastasis overrides Pfizer's recommendations. Not because he actually thinks its better, but because he needs to be contrarian about something a Democratic politician tweeted. 

    Go work on that supply chain. If thats your industry, then the buck stops with you. Ramp up supply and we don't even need to have this conversation.  The whole point of NY posting the numbers is that there aren't enough doses. At all. Those 200k aren't getting wasted. They are being used.  Maybe we should all get 1/10 of a dose instead. So everyone gets at least some. Some is better than none, right?  

    We can't trust the supply chain. It has already proven itself untrustworthy. 

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  15. 10 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:


    Virginia, actually.

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    To be honest, I don't care much about elected officials residing in DC while voting in their home state.  I'd grant their spouses the same leeway.  They were elected specifically to represent their state or constituents in DC.  But adult offspring that follow the gravy train should be residents of the location where they choose to live, whether DC/MD/VA.  Same for staff, appointees, or bureaucrats.

    But also, once elected, you should be required to maintain your absentee residence in the same state where you resided when elected.  You should not be able to randomly choose other states for residence or even change "official" residency addresses within your state.  Your "official" residence on the date of your election should remain your "official" residence until you are no longer in office.  Even if you are President and supposedly representing everyone.

  16. 33 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

    A first dose is not wasted on anyone, a shot sitting in a freezer is a waste of time.  Early data out of Israel is showing a 60% reduction in hospitalizations among those aged 60+ three weeks after first shot, before boosting and full immunity has been achieved. We know from the clinical data that there is a risk reduction after first shot. IMO, we have to put some faith in the supply chain and monitor it closely. We also have flexibility on the timing of the second shot, and if worst comes to worst, you give a mixed regimen. I am not advocating that we step away from the two shot series.  But shots sitting in freezers are wasted time imo. Trust that the supply chain will keep up, and have contingency plans in place to deal with interruptions.     

     

    Again disagree. We have been at this for almost a year. Just be patient and do it right. No need to rush at this point. 2 weeks to a month of "wasted time" for people who haven't even started the process yet is nothing. 

    Also keep in mind that NYC is already seeing second dose appointments. That 200k won't be sitting there anyway.  

    Nobody is going to settle for a small risk reduction either. They are going to get back in line for both doses if their second dose isn't delivered on time. 

    I'm also not sure why we should trust the supply chain when we can already see its stressed past its limit. 

    Most of us lucky enough to be considered healthy and low risk probably won't even get a chance to get the vaccine until summer.  Even if we get in the frenzy you desire, I could maybe get it in May if I go fuck around at Citi Field with 100k other people. Personally, I'd rather just wait a month longer. 

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  17. 15 minutes ago, Anastasis said:


    I don’t know, maybe start giving people the 200k you’re holding in the freezer?

    Disagree.  Second doses should be held for that purpose.  Otherwise, a future supply chain fuckup could send people already inoculated with a first dose back into the original line where they will now need to use 3 total doses rather than 2.

    People who haven't had a first dose can wait and reschedule.  So what if someone is inconvenienced for an additional 2 weeks after they have already been inconvenienced for a year.  Not as big a deal as wasting an already used first dose because you don't have a supply of second doses around.

    Patience is a virtue.  Both for you and for the NYC officials bitching about running out.  

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  18. 3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    I give Birx some slack. She easily could have attacked Trump and his administration last year, but she wouldn't have been immediately fired/reassigned and replaced with someone else like another Scott Atlas. Instead she stayed on the inside and attempted to steer the boat in the right direction. When you're not in charge, sometimes you have to go along with decisions that you do not fully support or you're opposed to it. Now everyone has to have a line that they will refuse to cross. 

    I don't give Birx any slack.  She could have avoided criticizing Trump while giving matter of fact statements and still kept her job.  Instead, she heaped praise on Trump's knowledge and response to the pandemic and that was both unnecessary and wrong.  It is one thing to avoid criticizing your boss and another to actively slob his knob.

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  19. 5 hours ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

    I don't know what to call it, loyalty? Inertia? Reluctant to change? Whatever, it is holding back some of the populace whenever they think about (if they think at all) their vote and what it means. Some time back, there was an article posted about temperament/characteristics and voting. Credit to whomever you are--but if I recall it discussed loyalty to party as being something with which more Republican voters identified. I'm not going to use the word conservative and tie it to Republicans because they aren't really, but it does seem to be linked in a way? In a conversation with a hard R neighbor, that was a real sticking point. Sure, it was a rationalization for supporting a racist shitbag conman, but how anyone could look at the GOP platform, such as it was, and make the determination to stay the course just boggled the mind.

    I mean, the Democratic Party had bullet point proposals, goals and objectives and the GOP had vague foggy ideals that didn't hold up to any scrutiny whatsoever. I liken it to getting tossed overboard without a life vest and on the verge of drowning. Oh, look! Here's a ringbuoy to help me stay afloat; but wait, is that going to raise my taxes versus Well, the ocean doesn't seem so bad even though I can't see the shore and my arms are tired, I'll stay with the GOP!

    The real problem for the GOP platform is that it never really decreases taxes all that much while providing almost no services with those taxes. With Dems, you get some ROI. With the GOP, you can't even get a bridge or highway funded.  A good example is the EPA. It's budget has been largely unchanged through Obama and Trump. But Trump's EPA did almost nothing.  If the GOP actually made federal income tax the bare minimum so that states could tax and fund local projects, they might have something. 

  20. 21 hours ago, Armybrat said:

    I was talking about criminal behavior, not intending to be political. 
    See my post in the Dec 14th thread in the Board Discussion forum. 
    Good Day & carry on. 

    I'm not sure why yall keep trying to downplay the venue.  Even if the DC mob had no goals upon entry, violently entering the US capitol building while Congress is in session is several steps worse than violently entering an empty courthouse or burning down an evacuated police station.

    But they did have goals and those goals were worse too. They wanted to assassinate elected officials in order to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power. So even if every BLM protestor set out for Portland with the explicit goal of killing a cop (they of course didn't have that goal), the DC insurrectionists were worse. 

    The more ridiculous thing is someone with the name "Armybrat" is defending an attempted coup of the United States.  I get that the participants were assclowns, and their plans had no chance of long term success even had they achieved their short term goals on January 6.  But that doesn't change who they are.  You are defending traitors. Not protestors. Not rioters. Not anarchists. Not cop killers. Traitors. 

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  21. 3 hours ago, Mileslong said:


    Hope he gets better...

    Disclaimer: I’m an independent and I don’t vote anymore or follow politics.

    Please fill me in on this, how could a pandemic be a political issue? Through observation only, why are people who like trump, against getting vaccinated? I’ve heard they think it’s fake or something.

    I wonder if trump followers still feel the same of their loved ones die from Covid or if they get it themselves.

    They're cultists. In other cults, followers knowingly commit suicide.  I'm not sure how many Trumpists still believe covid is fake. Most currently think its like the flu and don't want to wear masks because "freedom" because that is what Trump last told them to think.  So it isnt a stretch to maintain those beliefs when a loved one gets sick. 

    Its political because Trump is political and he is the cult leader.  What they believe has changed over the last year due to his proclamations alone.  He could have easily buried this last March by saying its real, its bad, and telling them to wear masks. And they would have followed. Just because you have people willing to drink your Kool aid, it doesn't mean you should start mixing it. He could have led them back into civilized society instead of away from it. 

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  22. 6 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

    I don't see that as denying a public option.

    Nope. We were supposed to have open enrollment for a new public option by yesterday when we were also supposed to be getting both rounds of covid vaccine. Biden was also supposed to fix the month wait time between injections. Bidens a failure!!  And he hasn't fixed global warming!!  Meanwhile every coal miner in America just starved to death this morning!!  Plus China still exists and Biden wears a watch!!  

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