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Longhornmaniac8

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Posts posted by Longhornmaniac8

  1. Buttigieg offers an even better alternative. He's the nerd that can straight up beat a jock down by destroying his argument, then steal his sports car... and of course turn down his wife's offer
    Buttigieg and Yang need to be responsible for developing the party platform and in charge of its marketing.

    They get it. They get how messaging matters. The rest of the party, especially the left flank, don't.

    Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

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  2. 1 minute ago, TXSG8R said:

    Not sure that correlates with reporting.  Map shows 86% in for Dekalb, which means there are close to 50k votes that havent been reported there.  My guess is they were giving an update on how much counting they have left, not how many votes are left to report.  

    I could buy that. You're correct in that processing may be different than reporting. If they'd put out 30K, I would've expected to see Trump's margin decrease, and I haven't seen that to the degree I'd expect (20-25K based on voting), so perhaps it hasn't been tallied yet.

  3. 1 minute ago, Mo Horn said:

    The Arizona Republic surveyed county recorders and estimates that 600,000 ballots remain to be counted in Arizona. A full 450,000 of those ballots are in Maricopa County (Phoenix) and break down as follows: 248,000 early ballots (which in Arizona includes both mail-in and in-person votes) that arrived on Monday or Tuesday, 160,000-180,000 mail-in ballots dropped off on Election Day and 29,000 provisional ballots. Maricopa expects to release two batches of results tonight: one at 9 p.m. Eastern and one sometime after 12:30 a.m. Eastern.

    Thanks for posting this. I was getting a little tired of people dismissing Trump in AZ. I'm still bullish on Biden, but I have to admit this information, which I'd seen elsewhere, gives me cause for concern. I fear Fox and the AP called the race with misinformation regarding what vote was still out there.

    It's also important to note that we don't really have a good beat on how these "late early" votes will go. Election Day results skewed heavily R (62-37 in Maricopa), while early voting went for Biden. It's easy to argue there will be enough from each camp to more or less offset, but I don't think you can make that claim yet. If these late-deciding (or at least late acting) votes break for Trump, it's plenty easy to overcome a 90K vote deficit.

    I'm more nervous about both AZ and NV than I was last night. I still think Biden is in the pole position in both states, and I feel better about Biden in Clark than I do in Maricopa, but both of these deserve watching.

  4. 5 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

    Is Wisconsin pretty much done now?

    Yes. Only 7 precincts not reporting. 5 are in Kenosha, and I believe we know from earlier that those will be about a 9-10K margin for Biden. For some reason they're not showing as reported, but that information was available earlier (Silver said something about it). He should be up roughly 20K by the end of it.

  5. 1 minute ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

    They are absentee ballots, sleep my child. 

    11.gif

    I know, and my head knows they're likely to break for Biden, but with such a small margin in a red county, I need to see it for myself. I know it's not Brown County votes, but instead Green Bay City votes, which broke for Clinton +3, but I need to see that 7K stretch to 20K before I'll feel good.

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  6. 1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

    Hopefully Detroit is still out.

    There's a substantial amount of Wayne County still to report (~40% last I saw). Plus mail-in vote in Oakland and Macomb, which should both go for Biden. He's sitting fairly pretty in MI right now, just need to be patient.

    In WI, just waiting on the Green Bay votes to come in. Once they do, you'll have a great idea of where the final margin will be. Kenosha still looks to have about 10K D votes to go based on 2016 margins, as well. There's basically nothing left anywhere else. According to the AP, there's 54 precincts outstanding out of nearly 3700. 47 of them are in Brown County (Green Bay), and 5 are in Kenosha. 

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  7. 2 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

    Trump currently has a statewide lead of ~109K. 

    Milwaukee county is currently +22 for Biden with 48% reporting.  If Biden wins 60% of the remaining ballots there, that's approximately another 177K, and Trump gets another 118K.

    So, that would cut Trump's statewide lead to about 50K.

    Biden's basically needs to win Milwaukee 4:1 or just slightly less than that. There is precedent for that in 2018. Remember, these are absentee votes that will go even more heavily for Biden than the rest of the vote in Milwaukee.

  8. Remember, for all the reasons Biden started off strong in the South and has petered out epically, things will operate in reverse in the Midwest because of the delays in starting the mail-in vote count.

    Also, I think I found the issue with Fox's NC projection. They still have Wake County (Raleigh) with only 14% of the vote in, but with an accurate vote count. If their model thinks there are a lot of votes outstanding there, it would make sense.

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