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Longhornmaniac8

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Posts posted by Longhornmaniac8

  1. 3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    Well-played, Team Biden.  Seriously, set Trump up to be even more of a bitch.

    This is masterful politicking. Not only do you set the stage for the last debate to be in the format that clearly favors your candidate (not that he's bad in other debates, but the town hall format allows him to speak directly to people, which is clearly his strength), but if your opposition balks at it you get the opportunity to score cheap points by questioning why Trump doesn't want to face the American people.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  2. I've been one of the more pessimistic in terms of getting out ahead of our skis with the "we got this!!!" proclamation. But whatever you think Biden's chances are, they are absolutely positively getting better as of the last few weeks. Whether or not he'll give it back between now and Nov 4 is TBD, but his chances definitely aren't getting worse.
    Basically this. Nothing has changed that the Rs will try to steal the election. It's much easier to steal a 4 point race than a 9 point race.

    Even with Republican fuckery, it's getting harder and harder. Again, the lead can (and probably will) shrink between now and then.

    The bar is now so low for Trump in future debates, who knows what kind of twisted narrative he may benefit from. That said, the town hall format plays to Biden's strengths.
  3. 5 minutes ago, Helobious said:

     

    That was far more of a catch than the SMU catch & fumble earlier. FWIW I thought they were both incompletions, but once the refs ruled that one a catch for SMU they should remain consistent.

    It really wasn't. The SMU catch was obviously a catch. He secured the ball in his arm, took a step, and had it knocked out. Easy call. That one obviously wasn't. Two totally different rules applied, and they were both adjudicated correctly.

    And I couldn't care less who wins.

    • Like 1
  4. 7 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

    Not sure why you laugh, state shifted in 2016 to Right leaning for first time in forever. The Democratic wall state is no longer. It's definitely a toss up state in 2020

    I read that article, too. It's not really what it said. In an average year, it might be a toss up state, but in 2020 it's still definitely in the Lean Democratic column. That's more a function of the political environment than the state itself, but it doesn't change that it's not a toss up in 2020.

  5. On 8/31/2020 at 9:45 PM, futureman said:

    well I’ll be god damned.  I’ve done this in california but I didn’t know we had it here.  how good is it?

    It serves exactly the purpose it's intended for. Namely to be fat American pig while eating perfectly edible sushi. I love it.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  6. 1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    Thanks. I'm not smart enough to know what mean reverted bias means. Maybe Huck will take pity on me and explain it.  I saw B+ on the pollster but I thought I saw D +0.2. I don't think that means subtract two tenths of a point from that poll from dems and you will get the right answer last time around, but I don't know.  That does jive with my slight house effect for Dem gut instinct though.   if its' 10 points it's not close, though, and that's the main point.  

    Yep, 0.2, typo. I'll edit. 

    Here's what the Definitions tab says about Mean Reverted Bias.

    Quote
    Mean-reverted bias
    A pollster's historical average statistical bias toward Democratic or Republican candidates, reverted to a mean of zero based on the number of polls in the database. A score of “R +1.5,” for example, indicates that the pollster’s polls have historically overrated the performance of Republican candidates.

     

  7. 7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    The only two numbers I actually think might even be off are men looks a little light for Trump- I'd guess he carries men, and Black looks a little light for Biden- I don't see Trump pulling double digits there.  My gut feeling has always been Q leans a couple points to the left- I know Silver tracks that shit- what is his house affect for Q- any idea?  

    Yeah, this isn't looking particularly close. 

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

    Has Q as a D +0.1.

  8. 6 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

    That's makes his model even more questionable. Polling has been steadier in this election than any in recent memory. 

     

    No it doesn't. It's a simple fact that with more time until the election, there's more time for things to change. There is considerable uncertainty with a lot of things right now, not the least of which is the impact of COVID. As the time decreases, results today become more predictive for something in the very near future.

    I agree that polling has been pretty steady, but when using a predictive model you have to factor in the time until the election .

  9. 10 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

    Which actually make's Silver take less convincing, as Joe Biden's polling numbers right now are much better than Hillary's right before Election Day (when he gave her those odds).

    Silver's model is factoring in the time left until the election. He's said somewhere (I can't find it) that if the model were told the election were tomorrow, Biden's percentage would be over 90%.

    If the polling remains more or less stagnant (I think it's tightened some from a month ago, probably with a national 5-6 point lead for Biden instead of 8-9), expect the 70% to slowly but steadily increase.

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  10. 34 minutes ago, milkman said:

    I’ve been debating getting my private pilot license. Is this something remotely obtainable within a couple of months? I have a more than full time job but could manage a few hours a week. Thoughts....

    It's doable in that timeframe if you dedicate more than a few hours a week, but even then it requires more luck. I'd plan on 6 months if you stay dedicated, flying 2-3 times a week. Too many variables like weather, plane availability, etc.

    • Like 1
  11. 41 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

    Been awhile since I posted. Just did my first night landings with my instructor and had the first cross country scheduled for today to Pleasanton, but had to reschedule to tomorrow. Havent taken my written yet, but everywhere I check on the internet says to just practice the Sporty's practice questions. I have the Jeppesen study guide and am going to look at that as well. How long did most of you guys study for before taking the test?

    Use Dauntless for the Private. There's nothing better. Once (if) you move on to Instrument, Sheppard Air is the way to go.

    Follow the study strategy. Remember, the written test is a hurdle to get past, and has almost no correlation with your overall level of knowledge. Trust your CFI on your actual level of knowledge. Just do whatever you need to do to get past the written. The path of least resistance is to use apps like Dauntless and Sheppard Air which have the question bank and just memorize it. I've used Sheppard Air for every test since Instrument, with the exception of Commercial. Guess which one I got below a 95% on...

    • Hook 'Em 1
  12. On 7/15/2020 at 1:04 PM, Homercles said:

    Question for turbine pilots...landing recently on an E175, heard what sounded like ice flowing down towards the rear of the aircraft in the ventilation system.  It started on decent during what I assumed was flight idle and continued while taxiing.  
     

    Would the ACM freeze up, maybe problem with the water separator?  I told an FA on the way out (no pilot to ask) as I was kinda wondering if that’d be an MEL issue due to moisture in there or just a nuisance?  Figured none of the flight crew would know about it and was trying to be a busy body aviation nerd.  

    That's pretty normal. I fly the 175 and I've been snowed on both in the cockpit and as a passenger.

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