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Posts posted by Longhornmaniac8
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With 98% reporting in Denton County, Trump is up by 7.5% (28K votes). He won Denton County by almost 20% in 2016 (59K votes). Lots more voters there, though.
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Biden's going to drop 200-250K votes in the central time zone counties in Florida, that's why Florida is over.
Good news is Miami-Dade's demographics are not replicated anywhere else in the country. Biden outperforming in most of the rest of Florida.
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Miami-Dade numbers are absolutely awful for Biden. Hilldog won by almost 30%. Biden up by less than 9.
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Biden running way out in front of 2016 (~10%) in Pasco and Brevard Counties (FL).
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5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:
Oh. Doom. I had almost forgot what this felt like for a whole 20 fucking minutes.
This is probably good for Biden. Look at the E-Day totals. They're favoring Trump, which wasn't unexpected. The lower the E-Day turnout, the fewer Clark County votes Trump will find.
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1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:
Is this worth celebrating, other than the obvious? Hillary Clinton won it like 60 to 30 or something like that in 2016, so isn't this just business as usual?
Remember, the Rs were supposed to come out in droves on Election Day. That the Ds are stretching their lead in the biggest population centers on a day the Rs were supposed to be making inroads is...not ideal for the Rs.
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These are not the numbers Trump needs to win Florida. Not even close. He needs to be up near 500K.
Edited to add: The total 2016 margin in those counties missing E-day votes was like 15K votes combined. And given the early turnout, it could reasonably be construed he's probably only getting a net 5K or so from those counties so far on E-Day.
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The Proud Boys?So . . which newspaper is not a pussy newspaper?
Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
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2 minutes ago, Bullneck said:
NYTimes says minimal issues so far.
Because when it comes down to it they're a bunch of pussies.
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2 minutes ago, G650 said:
Broward still rocking
Turnout in Miami-Dade looks to be good, too.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article246923312.html
I've seen a tweet that says they're expecting roughly 80% turnout there, which would shatter records. It looks like E-Day turnout is roughly even, which even with a heavy D lean in the county is probably good news for Ds.
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Something else worth noting: a brief search of the weather in various battleground places looks to be good weather on Tuesday basically all across the country.
Nothing there that would hamper turnout. -
There's an interesting sort of paradox now. With huge EV/MI totals skewing D, a higher turn out on Election Day would probably benefit Rs more so than Ds based on voting patterns.
But higher turnout overall favors Ds. -
1 minute ago, BradInATX said:
BTW how is Coconino/Flagstaff only light blue? That's bizarre.
It went 62-35 for Sinema in 2018, but there were only 53,500 votes cast, netting Sinema about 15,000 votes.
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3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:
FWIW, Sinema polled right at 51% in Maricopa and that was enough to win statewide.
62% of the Arizona 2018 Senate vote came from Maricopa County.
The margin there was 60,255 votes for Sinema. The statewide margin was 55,900 votes. Basically, as goes Maricopa, so goes Arizona. -
Big numbers out of Maricopa County (Phoenix).
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Also worth pointing out the enormous (>25%) amount of undecided D voters in the Senate race. Even the numbers overall point to ~20ish% undecided on that race.
That's probably bad news for Hegar in the sense she's been practically invisible. So many people don't know who she is or what she stands for. Most of that is self-inflicted, but I have to wonder how much she got from the Senate D PAC. I'd imagine not much, given the importance of so many other races. I haven't paid attention to her fundraising, but with those numbers either her campaign is truly historically bad or she didn't have that much finding. Both can be true to differing degrees.
That said, I think she'll overperform her polling, but still lose. It's just hard to imagine many Texas Democrats splitting their ticket given the current political environment. It's also a good sign she seems to be running slightly ahead with Independents.
Overall this particular race feels like a case of "what ifs" for Texas Democrats. What if they'd had a better {candidate, message, campaign,}. I don't even think she's necessarily a bad candidate. Some of the consistent attacks levied by Republicans would be tough lands on her, especially with respect to rah-rah military patriotism. She's pretty moderate, which is what Texas needs right now if we expect to flip it. -
Just to get some clarity/confirmation, these totals are assuming there is no change in voting patterns of a county's electorate from 2018. If a county voted 55.5% Cruz, the assumption here is 55.5% Trump?
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"Good."
Simply astounding.
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I think that Disney is releasing that new animated feature "Mueller and the 18 Angry Democrats" next year.
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Just now, Red Five said:
He's getting crushed. I hate the curve he gets graded on.
No man has ever spoken so much and said so little. JFC.
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1 minute ago, BradInATX said:
Yeah it's weird. Trump is doing well too.
He is, but it's only because we've set his bar so low. He has absolutely no specificity in any of his responses. Just platitudes.
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The first 10 minutes have been an actual debate. It's...refreshing. Especially because Joe continues to sound like the sane one.
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1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:
That would be pretty fucking major if true. And it's Ralston, so I believe it is. We'll see how that plays out, but if the Ds take that into election day, plus another bump in Washoe, there won't be enough votes left in the rural parts of the state to overcome it.
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27 minutes ago, Lobo said:
Sorry, but I'm voting for folks like Becky Bray for County Commissioner. Raul Vargas for Sheriff. Jeff Rose for Court of Appeals (even though he's gonna step down shortly since he didn't get tapped for Supreme Court of TX), Lani Popp, and a few others for Texas Supreme Court. By my pre-printed ballot, I am voting for Biden and 3 other Democrats, 3 Libertarians (my usual go-to, but I think we all know where's just not as many on the ballot this time around), against the 3 props on my ballot, couple of school board choices, and what everybody is waiting on pins and needles to hear about---Lobo endorses for Edwards Aquifer Conservation Precinct #4---Bob Larsen.
I have to stay in the party's good graces. So that it's made even more sweet when we rise up against Dan Patrick in 2022. the amount of money that's been bundled already to remove him from public office in perpetuity and put him back where he belongs---sucking off glory hole customers at truck stops for new radio headphones...would boggle your mind. I can't believe how many enemies he's made already.
Anyway, back to Biden and Trump. Go Biden.
Bob Larsen is a great choice. My dad used to be the GM of BSEACD.
2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]
in Cloak Room
Posted
It's so, so early. Honestly, I think Biden underperformed in Harris, only banking about 195K votes (with 80% in), with what we have reporting so far. Hillary by about 160K total.