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Longhornmaniac8

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Posts posted by Longhornmaniac8

  1. 1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

    Is this worth celebrating, other than the obvious? Hillary Clinton won it like 60 to 30 or something like that in 2016, so isn't this just business as usual?

    Remember, the Rs were supposed to come out in droves on Election Day. That the Ds are stretching their lead in the biggest population centers on a day the Rs were supposed to be making inroads is...not ideal for the Rs.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  2. These are not the numbers Trump needs to win Florida. Not even close. He needs to be up near 500K.

    Edited to add: The total 2016 margin in those counties missing E-day votes was like 15K votes combined. And given the early turnout, it could reasonably be construed he's probably only getting a net 5K or so from those counties so far on E-Day.

  3. 2 minutes ago, G650 said:

    Broward still rocking

     

     

    Turnout in Miami-Dade looks to be good, too.

     

    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article246923312.html

     

    I've seen a tweet that says they're expecting roughly 80% turnout there, which would shatter records. It looks like E-Day turnout is roughly even, which even with a heavy D lean in the county is probably good news for Ds.

    • Hook 'Em 2
  4. Also worth pointing out the enormous (>25%) amount of undecided D voters in the Senate race. Even the numbers overall point to ~20ish% undecided on that race.

    That's probably bad news for Hegar in the sense she's been practically invisible. So many people don't know who she is or what she stands for. Most of that is self-inflicted, but I have to wonder how much she got from the Senate D PAC. I'd imagine not much, given the importance of so many other races. I haven't paid attention to her fundraising, but with those numbers either her campaign is truly historically bad or she didn't have that much finding. Both can be true to differing degrees.

    That said, I think she'll overperform her polling, but still lose. It's just hard to imagine many Texas Democrats splitting their ticket given the current political environment. It's also a good sign she seems to be running slightly ahead with Independents.

    Overall this particular race feels like a case of "what ifs" for Texas Democrats. What if they'd had a better {candidate, message, campaign,}. I don't even think she's necessarily a bad candidate. Some of the consistent attacks levied by Republicans would be tough lands on her, especially with respect to rah-rah military patriotism. She's pretty moderate, which is what Texas needs right now if we expect to flip it.

  5. Final Saturday update
    image.png.39180651593cb7e59e877cb0b614825f.png
    image.thumb.png.1e22419fd53a3b277f0ccd57272a53cc.png
    2020 current Statewide estimate based on 2018 Dem/Rep county vote shares
    Trump - 3,673,874 (51.1%)
    Biden - 3,519,509 (48.9%)
     
    Just to get some clarity/confirmation, these totals are assuming there is no change in voting patterns of a county's electorate from 2018. If a county voted 55.5% Cruz, the assumption here is 55.5% Trump?
  6. 27 minutes ago, Lobo said:

     Sorry, but I'm voting for folks like Becky Bray for County Commissioner. Raul Vargas for Sheriff.  Jeff Rose for Court of Appeals (even though he's gonna step down shortly since he didn't get tapped for Supreme Court of TX), Lani Popp, and a few others for Texas Supreme Court.  By my pre-printed ballot, I am voting for Biden and 3 other Democrats, 3 Libertarians (my usual go-to, but I think we all know where's just not as many on the ballot this time around), against the 3 props on my ballot, couple of school board choices, and what everybody is waiting on pins and needles to hear about---Lobo endorses for Edwards Aquifer Conservation Precinct #4---Bob Larsen. 

    I have to stay in the party's good graces.  So that it's made even more sweet when we rise up against Dan Patrick in 2022.  the amount of money that's been bundled already to remove him from public office in perpetuity and put him back where he belongs---sucking off glory hole customers at truck stops for new radio headphones...would boggle your mind.  I can't believe how many enemies he's made already.  

    Anyway, back to Biden and Trump.  Go Biden.  

    Bob Larsen is a great choice. My dad used to be the GM of BSEACD.

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