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Txzen

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Posts posted by Txzen

  1. 1 hour ago, Tailgate said:

    I’m looking forward to the eventual epidemiology reports on this - fascinating to me that the first site of outbreak were not around major travel hubs (Atlanta, Chicago, NY, Houston). We first saw it in Vacaville, Kirkland, Rhode Island, Tennessee. Clearly a lot we don’t understand yet. 

  2. 26 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

    Serbs jumping on the imported bioweapon bandwagon on the Chinese side. 

    Then Dacic -- a former prime minister and onetime aide to Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic who led their Social Democrats back into the political mainstream after the military conflicts of the 1990s -- twice went on Serbian television to suggest that the coronavirus was a foreign plot targeting the Chinese economy.

    "China is the second-largest economy in the world today, so it's not out of the question that [the coronavirus crisis] is part of a special war against China," Dacic first told privately owned Pink TV.

    He did not elaborate.

    Two days later, on March 1, Dacic told Serbia's public broadcaster: "China is a very cautious country. They're not coming out with it yet, they are testing, but I've heard information from them that they suspect that it is not of organic origin but rather was created in the laboratory and now needs to be further determined how it originated, why it originated, and how it got to China."

    Chinese officials have never publicly alleged that a foreign power was behind the outbreak, which is thought to have begun late last year in Wuhan, China.

    I'm sure Surly can do something with this (hope the image embeds). Origin and evolution of pathogenic coronaviruses. Friggin bats. 

    Spoiler

    spacer.png

     

    • Like 1
  3. 9 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

    The swine flu in 1976 seemed pretty bad on a global scale, or maybe I'm biased because I caught it when I was nine. I was out of school two weeks and when I went back everyone could write in cursive except me.

     

    I remember lining up in the gym for the vaccination for that (using the machine gun thing in this linked article). 
     

    interesting that in many ways the failed public policy around the vaccinations for swine flu probably still linger today. And I do know one person who likely developed Guillan-Barre from the vaccine. 
    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/long-shadow-1976-swine-flu-vaccine-fiasco-180961994/

  4. 26 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

    Just wait till San Fran, Chicago, New York, Philly, etc get cases

     

    the urban dense places are where its really gonna spread like wildfire

    ...which is why I think it’s interesting where we’ve seen the first cases. Not what I would have expected but it may have to do with testing and that it hit a nursing home in Washington early. 

  5. 23 minutes ago, Somnio said:

    I will point out .2 is still twice the average mortality rate for seasonal flu deaths of all ages, which also disproportionately affects olds.

    Under 40 flu deaths?  I dunno but has to be astronomically low.

    Percentage of deaths from influence from those with symptomatic illness (2018-2019):

    all ages : 0.096%

    18-49 : 0.021%

    65+ : 0.83% (a 40x higher mortality rate than 18-49)

    Link to CDC data

    • Like 3
  6. 1 hour ago, Bevo said:

    That won't matter. The virus stays on surfaces for up to a week compared to the flu which stays on hard surfaces for a couple of days. The coronavirus also lasts longer on the skin. Watch peoples habits. Touching the face, the keyboard, doorknobs... Buying Purell only works to the extent that it is used properly and other bad habits are abated.

    Yes - it's different than flu, which outside of a droplet doesn't last long. The report that said it lasts >5d on surfaces was discussed a few pages ago and it's not really correct. While it's likely that surfaces can harbor some infectious material for a day or more, the  virulence drops logarithmically by day. You're far, far more likely to get it by being in close contact with someone infected.

    Still, wash your hands. 

    • Like 3
  7. 2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

    And eat Chinese food at the fucking mall.   I bet it was Panda Express or something like that.    Or it has “wok” in the title.   If you’ve been isolated for weeks, and want Chinese food, go find a real Chinese restaurant.  

    I'd bet that business is slow today at Chinese Gourmet Express. Also because they closed the mall for deep cleaning.

  8. 2 hours ago, Bevo said:

    I know Amgen could do it. They have a transgenic mouse that has a human immune system to make human monoclonal antibodies. It could create a panel of monoclonals to attack the spike protein. It is a fairly straightforward process. However, let us say that they find the antibodies by the end of the month. Then, they have to clone and culture. Then, it has to enter some sort of clinical trial which could be fast tracked. Then it has to scale up to meet demand.

    As does Regeneron and many others. Still have to pick neutralizing antibodies. Still might want to affinity mature them. Even with high-throughput screens, this takes time before you have your thing.

    But there are so few antibody therapeutics for infectious diseases (anthrax is the one that comes to mind). Most vaccines are not antibodies, but preparations of inactivated virus.

    The kicker is, how many large pharmas even have infectious disease groups anymore? Wasn't sure Amgen did, and Novartis culled most of their work last year. It's going to come from someone smaller (or the CDC, who did the H1N1 vaccine in about 8 months). There'll certainly also be a few trials like this one which test existing antivirals drugs to treat infections. 

  9. 48 minutes ago, Helobious said:

    What you and Somnio fail to understand is that not everyone that gets infected with this gets tested for it. So some people get infected and hardly get sick, never see a doctor, never get tested, etc. That would lower the actual mortality/hospitalization rate. I know it’s less fun to think that way, because doomsday is more exciting, but it helps to look at things with a grain of salt. I’d be shocked if this wasn’t being openly transmitted across the US for a month or longer at this point. Incubation of 2 weeks or shorter means we should already be seeing overwhelmed hospitals and people dead in the street according to you guys. The true hospitalization/mortality rate of this will likely never be known, same is true for Spanish flu. That could’ve been higher or lower than 2%.

    That literally the conclusion from the Trevor Bedford Twitter feed linked above, looking at the lineage of cases reported in Washington. The most recent one is the same lineage as one tested in January 19th, meaning there's been 'cryptic transmission' (great band name, too) for 6 weeks. And these are the cases we know about. 

    • Like 1
  10. 2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

    So the stock market tanked because:

    A. This thread and its posters

    B. There is a fuck-ton of empty or mostly-empty container ships parked off the coast of China

    C. Companies like Apple, Samsung, Microsoft, etc. are being impacted by shut-down factories in China, including delayed product launches.

    I'm just going to take a wild guess and say it's B and C. 

    I'm sure you are a business genius who will explain to us how things not being manufactured and shipped from China have absolutely no impact on the stock market.

    He's just become 'unstuck in time'.

    • Like 2
  11. 7 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

    Let's talk hotel HVAC (and I guess this would apply to apartment buildings, etc.)  I'm still traveling for business (by auto, mostly interactions with just 1 or 2 individuals at a time, easy to keep distance, it isn't difficult to disinfect a hotel room, can cook my own food, hotdam I'm a mobile mini-prepper extraordinaire.)

    From what I've read the risk of infection from particles traveling through the recirculated hotel air supply isn't as high as one might think, despite the typical filters used not being very effective for screening (China Flu particles are on the small end of the specturm), for a variety of reasons.  But it also isn't a zero risk. 

    I'm thinking ahead to if my hotel got quarantined for 2+ weeks.  Getting a room where the windows open and have the HVAC unit separate from the building intake/outtake tubes (such as those beneath the window), I can tape off the duct vent feeding air into the room from the building's recirculating system (no need to close off the outlet duct sucking the air out (usually in the bathroom.)  Those vents on the outside below the window, opposite the HVAC unit, are just heat exhaust vents, right?  The HVAC unit just recirculates air inside the hotel room rather than drawing in outside air directly, for efficiency, correct?  So far so good, yes?

    But is it common for some hotels to have rooms, such as multi-room suites, on their own independent central HVAC?  For example, the Residence Inns I'm familiar with have a central HVAC unit in each suite feeding all the rooms.   I'm guessing those are still fed by the building's central air duct, or not always?  Is it possible to open the access panel to close off a duct vent, or are they probably run directly into the HVAC unit?

    Maybe I should sign up for a U. Phoenix HVAC certification class....

    I think the cruise ships offer a good study in this - there were certainly people with symptoms or without, carrying the disease. Reports are that the 'quarantine' was far from optimal - people not taking it seriously, eating together, etc. And still the overall infection rate was only a portion. 

    Basically, I'd be more worried about the breakfast buffet than the HVAC. This isn't Legionnaire's Disease, caused by a bacterium with a waxy coating that allows it to thrive in those environments. 

  12. 11 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

    Only comparing mortality rates as a means of comparing influenza to covid19 is missing 3/4 of the information. Add in the communicability difference, the natural and inoculated immunity difference, and the hospitalization rate difference, and you can see why one is more dangerous than the other. At least this season. 

    Username checks out. 

  13. I find it fascinating that people are reporting no work travel restrictions. 
     

    My company informed us at the outset we were forbidden to travel to Asia, and if we were headed back we would have to self-quarantine for 14 days. Now, several weeks later, we’re being asked to curtail all non-essential travel - even domestic. I should say my employer is a large drug company, one which is testing existing agents on this bug in trials as we speak. 

  14. 7 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

    I know this is a CR issue, but I was wondering why the "Flu kills more people" keeps getting pushed by the uninformed? I don't get it. 

    1 in 25 vs 1 in 1000

    I wish there was an information sheet showing why that yes, currently, the Flu has killed more people this year, but it's because we don't contain people for the flu, we have a vaccination for the Flu, etc. etc. 

    I think we still don’t know what the mortality rate is for covid-19 (and maybe I’m misreading your post - it’s not 1/25). 
     

    What’s clear is that it’s highly infectious and like other coronovirus can survive in droplets well. Most concerning, it’s the number of people put in respiratory distress and in need of hospitalization. That and the impact for the elderly and those with pre-existing issues. 

  15. https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/UC-Davis-coronavirus-students-medical-center-15090596.php

    Quote

    Three students who live together are being monitored for potential coronavirus infection, UC Davis said Thursday.

    One of the students at the university 30 miles southwest of Sacramento showed signs of COVID-19, and was removed from campus and put in isolation. The two others are the student's roommates and aren't showing any symptoms, but are also in isolation.

    UC Davis confirmed that none of the three students have confirmed cases, but one is being tested and awaiting results.

    Interesting that the first case in NorCal isn't even in the Bay Area, but the Davis/Sacramento corridor. Obviously, it's only a matter of time until we see it there, but still. 

  16. The California patient was at a regional hospital before crashing and being brought to UC Davis. CDC denied/postponed testing because the patient had not had any foreign travel and didn't fit the profile. Clearly they came in contact with someone. Would not be surprised if there were additional exposures at the first hospital, as UCD seems to have taken all the precautions (not sure the first one did). 

  17. 2 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

    Also read reports (dunno how true) that a person can catch coronavirus more than once because of something about the way it mutates or some shit

    From what I've read, the coronoviruses have a pretty moderate mutation rate. The current strain likely derived from a mutation, but once emergent it may be relatively stable - this hopefully allows for an effective vaccine. 

  18. 4 hours ago, bernorange said:

    So, I read the paper (and a few associated papers)...

    It's the type of journal report where it is only an exercise in pulling literature references to other papers to compile the data (no experiments). In a table, they reference the persistence at various temperatures and surfaces reported. 

    Room temperature persistence across MERS, SARS, human coronovirus (and a few others) vary wildly. For instance:

    • SARS : 1h to 2d on a disposable gown (depending on the amount deposited)
    • SARS : 4d on glass, 5d on metal, 4d on wood
    • etc..

    But if you actually pull some of those reports, what you see is that while there is some amount of infectious agent, there's almost a 1x reduction in the first day, and at the limit of detection at 5 days (on teflon, PVC, ceramic, glass, rubber, stainless steel). 

    So, 9d is a total outlier in the literature, and even at several days out the reduction in infectious agent is significant. It's there, but diminished. Importantly, this is different from the normal influenza virus which survives only a matter of hours in droplets and surfaces. A different beast, for sure. 

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