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BradInATX

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by BradInATX

  1. Just now, Anastasis said:

    It was the last summary sentence.

    Certainly there is under-ascertainment of COVID mortality occurring, but there is a bit to unpack related to excess deaths and state to state comparisons. 

    Can you link the source for those charts? 

    Okay. Yeah. I agree with you there. But I you and I both know it's not going to be enough of a driver to materially change anything in Florida. Maybe a state like Mississippi as I mentioned above. 

     

    Sauce of charts:

    http://www.bu.edu/articles/2021/is-pro-trump-bias-leading-some-us-counties-to-lowball-covid-19-deaths/
    https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/25/undercounting-covid-19-deaths-greatest-in-pro-trump-areas-analysis-shows/

  2. 1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

    To summarize Brad's point:  We don't know.  But really, I do know...and you don't know.  Let's not be partisan about this, but every one of my posts is going to slant in a single direction.  Let's definitely be as objective about this as we can, but if you looked up confirmation bias in the dictionary, my fucking face is posted there as example #1. 

     

    To summarize you and Cheese's posts

    "we got nothin"

    At least you didn't try to talk stats and science and then pussy out when called out like he did. You already know better.

  3. 8 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

    Are suggesting that there is not an interaction between higher baseline CV risk and deferred care seeking with excess mortality as an outcome?  Interesting. Totally wrong, but interesting. 

    Nope, I'm not. I'm sure it's a small piece of the pie, which a) appears to be accounted for by the study (can't get the full text right now, but they attribute 4,000 of the 19,000 deaths above expected to non-Covid) and b) is not going to be drastic in Florida, given that it's in the bottom 10 of heart disease mortality in the country.

    I'm not sure what your point is/was. Does Florida only being 48% fraudulent instead of 50% materially change our conversation?

  4. 2 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

    I’m so glad I’m lame. My wife had a baby shower with pink napkins and cupcakes. Before they are lunch she told them all the baby names. I didn’t even have to be there. 

    We had a basic baby shower at our house. I smoked a briskey and made old fashioneds and mint juleps, the guys watched football outside and the girls did girl stuff. It ruled.

  5. Just now, Anastasis said:

    Can you link the source of those charts Brad?

    Some of the excess deaths that have not been previously attributed to COVID are certainly related directly to COVID.  A good number of them are also related to a variety of other underlying medical conditions and are non COVID related. Some states will see a greater number of those non-COVID excess deaths than other based simply on demographics and other factors such as rates of obesity and cardiovascular disease. States in the south have the highest incidence rate for death due to CV disease. I've see data showing substantial reduction in CV related hospitalization, eg. AMI, ranging from 20-30% during lockdown through summer, with modest recovery in later 2020, but still significantly depressed admits per thousands. Heart attacks didn't just go away. A lot of those people were deferring care seeking and had out of hospital cardiac arrest and may have died in home. Certainly this is under-reporting of COVID mortality occurring, but there is a bit to unpack related to excess deaths and state to state comparisons. 

     

    Higher cardiovascular incidence, obesity rates, etc. would already be accounted for in the baseline "expected deaths" numbers unless your assertion is that just prior to Covid, there was a one-time, historic mass migration of fat people to specific states. 

    But you already know that. Or you should.

  6. 5 minutes ago, B00M said:

    Don't be so petulant, Brad. You very well may be right, but you were lazy with the stats. If it's so easy to show where Florida ranks in excess deaths, please do. I'm on your side here and you're just lashing out at everyone.

    I wasn't lazy with the stats. I made a direct statement. If you accounted for the estimated 14,000 unreported deaths in Florida, they'd be #6 currently. That's absolutely true.

    The underlying point of my post is that Florida, broadly used as a "see masks don't work look at how well Florida is doing!", is full of shit and had much, much worse Covid death numbers (by about 50%) than they would have you believe.

    And with Florida in particular, we absolutely know it was being done intentionally. You could sell me on the argument that very rural areas lack reporting capability. I could feasibly believe that, say, Mississippi underreported just due to being a poor shitty rural state without capacity to really properly report. Florida fired its statistician because they told her to underreport and she refused. Which is, I assume, why the article focused on Florida.

    We'll learn more in the coming years, but anyone rational and without the partisan hackery boat anchor around their neck knows what we're going to see. NY, probably NJ, Florida, a bunch of southern states, the Dakotas, and maybe California are underreporting their numbers.

  7. 2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

    Bradin, I think the other posters on this page have done a much better job explaining it than I have. We don't know what we don't know. Anyone saying THESE are the correct numbers and THIS is what can be concluded at this point is doing it for political reasons. 

    LMAO.

    There are thousands of posts on this thread talking about how masks and restrictions don't work because the numbers show that red states and no-restriction states are doing just great. You were all over that weren't you. But now that the data is completely predictably showing that was all bullshit, you don't like the numbers?

    Once again, and let me try to dumb this down because stats clearly aren't your forte, we won't know exact numbers or exactly where Florida "ranks" for awhile. But we can, with certainty, conclude that they are underreporting numbers. As are NY and other southern red states. 

    The numbers from Florida and other states are so far outside of a normal confidence interval when compared to excess deaths that there is literally no way to conclude anything other than Covid deaths are being underreported. There is no "we don't know". We know. 

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  8. 1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    Yep. 
    my basic point is I will start putting stock in the numbers 3 or 4 or 5 years down the road when economists get together and do carefully thought out surveys of a what actually happened. Until then we are in the fog of war imo, where information is often shitty. 

    We won't know precise numbers for awhile, if ever. But we know a few things, without any doubt. Florida is cooking their books. NY is cooking their books. The majority of the south and very rural areas are cooking their books and fraudulently underreporting their Covid numbers. There is more than enough information out there to definitively draw those conclusions. 

  9. 2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

    When you are a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

    Agreed, which is why you've avoided addressing the actual point. None of the data supports your partisan view of the pandemic so let's just distract, deflect, then retreat when called out.

    Many of us who aren't approaching every piece of information about the pandemic from a partisan hack corner have criticized Cuomo and NY harshly for their poor decisions and obfuscation. Of course I don't expect any of the "but muh florida" folks to do the same, but the data is there nonetheless. You know. You won't admit it, but you know.

  10. 21 minutes ago, B00M said:

    Excess death in the US has consistently out-paced reported covid related deaths. There's no way Florida is alone in under counting. Get the excess death data from every state before jumping to lazy conclusions, Brad.

     

    It's not my job to do your research for you. Literally on the first page of google if you're actually interested (you're not).

     

    I presume the authors of the study started with Florida because they've blatantly and unashamedly submitted fraudulent numbers. But yeah, you're absolutely right, there's definitely undercounting going on elsewhere. It's almost all concentrated in very red rural areas. So yeah, maybe Florida ends up #10 or so after a bunch of other SEC states who are also cooking their books jump above it. Cool. Go Florida!

     

    image.png.6394f23bd23009edecfdca8165285cae.png

     

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    image.png.05922e37aa152f77eed2f04ff6855785.png

     

     

     

     

     

  11. 7 hours ago, Noogman said:

    Girlfriend received her second dose of Pfizer yesterday morning, and I was able to snag an appointment at HEB in New Braunfels for J&J in the afternoon.

    Posting at 2 in the morning because I feel like absolute dogshit and can’t go back to sleep. We both had severe chills and a fever around 10pm, and now my head feels like I drank a twelve pack of Shiner yesterday. Ibuprofen helped a little, but damn if the vaccine doesn’t knock you on your ass.

     

    They actually injected you with AIDS for Austining their New Braunfels. True story.

  12.  
    oh-really-well-0ugiri.jpg
     
     
     

    That's such an America thing. We've had data for like a month showing this and most everyone has already acknowledged it. But the CDC wants us to know that they've vetted things and have it under control. Same thing historically with our FDA. Even though everyone knows it, it's not official til we say so.
  13. double post.. and not even on tapa this time. 

     

    I'll use this space to brag that with a deal signed today my company now has two years of forward running money including all payroll/benefits/retirement/expenses. That's been a goal of mine since I started the business about seven years ago, when I started it with about two months of running money. Feelsgoodman.

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  14. On 3/25/2021 at 12:20 AM, Frieda’s Boss said:

    Anyone else have first round of PPP forgiveness sitting with the SBA for months?  Our bank can’t tell us anything other than “we have a lot of clients in the same position”. 

    Yeah, same thing here. Honestly though I haven't really chased it that hard. I'm operating under the same general assumption that Cheeseweasel said, that government is slow and it'll get forgiven eventually since I did everything right. I'll probably call and harass the lender if I don't have it by tax day. I'm not stressing on it yet.

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