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Bodacious Bevo

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by Bodacious Bevo

  1. 5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

    ATM tasked someone with sitting down to talk to the key players about their intentions to stay or go ahead of the Miss State game. They got responses on needs and turned around and locked a group of players up to new NIL deals that they signed. Some guys said, irrespective of Fisher being the coach or not, that they were leaving and thanks but no thanks for a new offer. Stewart was one of the guys that did this. He wasn't being tampered with, he just wanted out.

    I do know that allegedly multiple other players opted for this route or weren't deemed critical, so I do expect to see some significant traffic for ATM attrition. That considered, they knew what they were doing ahead of 86'ing Fisher and some of those conversations just reinforced to the brass that dumping Fisher now had to happen. He'd been lobbying with the notion of barely losses and a 9-4 season heading into a national title run in 2024. They think they're going on a national title run in 2024 anyway.

    I don't think anyone in the media or with ATM has actually critically looked at what "all that talent" actually looks like on their roster. Their OL is hopeless. Their LB situation without Cooper is bad. Their WR room is about to be wiped out. CB is really grim. Weigman is a complete question mark. They're going to need offensive coaching answers asap with the portal opening.

    Meanwhile, Craig is already fucking with them by poisoning the well with a number of recruits as a typical low class move on his way out. Where does he land? Liucci is telling his audience that Petrino is actively recruiting against them and tampering with the roster as well. We know Adazzio is a low character guy as well, so if he finds a landing spot, he'll attempt dark shit as well. 

    It's going to continue to be fascinating to watch.

    I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but the crazy thing about their 2024 title hopes is that their 2021 class has been absolutely decimated. This is all that remains: 

    • Shemar Turner
    • Bryce Foster
    • Reuben Fatheree
    • Jardin Gilbert
    • Deuce Harmon
    • Trey Zuhn
    • Amari Daniels
    • Albert Regis
    • Tyreek Chappell
    • Dametrious Crownover
    • Fernando Garza

    If Turner and Chappell go pro, that leaves them with like 2(?) positive contributors from the class? When's the last time a team won a national or SEC championship with such a poor group of seniors? Not to mention installing new systems on both sides of the ball and having to fix the culture rot.

    • Hook 'Em 5
  2. 11 hours ago, Pimphand said:

    I hate giving that douche views but he has become such the aggy fan of late I wanted to taste the tears and he delivered.

    giphy.gif

    Uh what, Pate has said positive things about us all year. That video is like the opposite of tears. It's a victory lap that he predicted us 11-1 facing OSU in the CCG.

    8 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

    I thought the OSU posters said Gundy had become like Buddha and only did coach speak.

    Because damn. He is shitting all over us. I mean good for you Gundy, you beat our ass over and over.

    Hope we beat his ass.

    Anybody that has taken offense at anything Gundy has said this weak is soft. I'll excuse the players because you do what you can for motivation.

    • Like 1
  3. Reminder that Sark put together one of the best offenses ever and won a national championship with Miller Forristall and Jahleel Billingsley as his TEs. They combined for 41 catches, 540 yards, and 4 TDs. Alabama averaged 48.5 points. 

    Granted, that offense was loaded at every other position. But just wanted to provide some more context. 

  4. So I just went back and watched all of Juan Davis's snaps against Tech. He at least knows what he's doing. He didn't blow any assignments, so that's good. But he blocks by just throwing his shoulder into guys. It's kind of weird. It makes sense if you're just sealing the backside against a larger defender, but not as an every down thing. He did have one good lead block to spring a Red run, but even then it looks like he led with his shoulder then engaged the defender. This was the only play I saw where he was just really slow and out of position

    Anyways, as others have said, the complete TE is difficult to fine. Unicorns that have Sanders's receiving ability or Beck's kick return ability are hard to come by. I'm perfectly happy with Helm as TE1 the next two years. Davis will need to develop to be TE2 but I don't think we should be writing him off given that development seems to be a thing around here now. People had forgotten about Helm 6 months ago and said TE was a major portal need before the season.

    • Haha 1
  5. On 11/28/2023 at 9:17 AM, immamac said:

    I hope he fucking goes to the NFL just like I hope J Brooks still gets taken in the 2nd or 3rd. I’ll gladly have them both back, but if we want to see if Sark is really building an every year is a potential run year we need to see what it’s like to have the next men up go with it. He’s proven he can develop over an entire 4 year run, now show us you can reload on 1 year cycles. 

    Quinn will have given us what we all wanted. A run at the CFP, getting back in the legitimate conversation for national contenders and hopefully a big XII championship. It’s a storybook ending to his time at Texas and one that would do well with Maalik or Arch coming after and leading the charge to continue where he left off. 

    I get this, but also if Quinn comes back next year we'll be competing for the SEC + CFP. Winning always makes the reload easier. Plus most reloads don't happen all at once. Let's see how we reload the front 7 and WR while having Quinn to buoy us :D

     

    On 11/28/2023 at 4:38 PM, Park Gothic said:

    Apropos of nothing, but how do I put someone on ignore? It's been a long time since I've had to and I've forgotten. 

    Tired Monday GIF

    Hover over their profile photo and it pops up. Anybody that has fewer than three pages on their mute list needs to get those numbers up. 

    image.thumb.png.cf124451d57ae8db8a0bdaf8e39892dd.png

    • Haha 1
  6. 8 minutes ago, Chili dog said:

    I never understood if or how everyday fans  could contribute toward the pancake factory. It sounded like a great idea when it came out, but I never figured out how to contribute to it. I sent an email to the contact address provided, but I got no response. I’d rather put money toward that position group than any other. Tight ends are great and all, but they aren’t much good to me if my QB is dead. I doubt I’m alone in this philosophy. I would donate to both. 

    My understanding is that pancake factory was a one year thing and funded by a single person or small group. 

  7. 11 minutes ago, NoName said:

    OL will have to see some attrition

    image.png.52a8c71554a483be8a401f5a03c9195e.png

    have to imagine some of the RS FR class leaves just because they are going to get recruited over. Neto has been long talked about as a guy who was interested in moving, wonder if his brother staying changes anything? or if he can actually compete w/ Conner next year?

    i can't see a world where Texas keeps ALL the tackles (Goosby/Chatman/Cojoe) especially if Baker comes in and does anything. same for Robertson if Cruz comes in and kicks ass.

    this is the first time in well over a decade that the thought of losing someone like Neto or Agbo wouldn't cause our OL to completely collapse.

    For the December window:

    Goosby, Chatman, and Cojoe are true freshmen that will be in the two deep as RS FR with at least one but possibly both tackles departing in time for their third seasons. They also weren't five star types that schools will be aggressively poaching, so I'm not sure I see any of them leaving. 

    Hutson and Robertson strike me as the type that like the university and will get their degrees before a hypothetical transfer (like Hudson Card). On top of the fact that both have legitimate paths to playing time.

    Agbo is a guy that was close to portaling out last year and I've already heard he might this year despite his role as the jumbo TE. PK and Neto are probably the other flight risks by my estimation because who really knows what's going on with them.

    That could all change in the spring window depending on how the depth chart goes, but I'm not too worried about the OL in December.  I guess Majors would be another thing that could change the calculus for Hutson and Robertson. 

    • Hook 'Em 2
  8. On 11/25/2023 at 9:21 AM, Atticus said:

    I'm a big Ewers fan, but his lack of field vision has been a recurring theme going back to last year. He is who he is at this point. He's great if things are schemed up for him and sometimes he can even thread some balls into tight windows, but when it comes to creating on his own, he isn't that.

    I appreciate the fact that he's the best we've had since Colt, but I also believe that distinction will be short-lived.

    Hopefully he balls out the rest of the way, then comes back and makes major strides over the off-season to become a first round draft pick in the 2025 NFL draft. 

     

    On 11/25/2023 at 9:32 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

    He is what he is for this year, sure. But, just like he got a metric shot ton better last offseason to this I will bet he makes big strides this offseason.  
    Flat out, he will be in NYC if healthy next year and  go top 5 in the draft. If he’s banged up I trust Arch. I think Arch is gonna be special. 

    Quinn made a nice little jump before the bowl game last year. I think a lot of that was just the time to stop his head spinning. Hope we see the same this year, especially with time for his shoulder to heal up. 

     

    On the Tech performance - Quinn was absolutely shredding them in the RPO game early. We moved off of it and it wasn't a great game for Quinn overall but he was in a nice rhythm early.

    • Hook 'Em 2
  9. 2 hours ago, dcar00 said:

    there is and has never been any reason to schedule tough out of conference games.  The poll era and committee's have proven this over and over again.  you just need to make sure you go 3-0 in OOC.  they lie all the time about body of work/SOS

    FWIW I hope we continue to play big OOC games. Fuck the playoffs, it makes for more entertainment and helps recruiting. 

    1 hour ago, BurgleBro said:

    Why do they have Tulane being a thing??? In what world does the best team left out of the playoffs play the 17th ranked team overall???

     

    If we're left out I hope we don't play this like UGA in '18. 

     

    We're 11-1. I refuse to be upset about anything college football related.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  10. 17 minutes ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

    image.png.71b9863b675a0345397f07c8a5e480f8.png

    These are the Big 12 title odds. That's not exactly the same as us winning out, but it converts to a 67.7% implied probability. 

    Using the numbers from above, we're +130 to make the CFP. 43.5% implied probability. 

    So, Vegas gives us about a 2/3 chance to make it if we win the conference. That would be a higher shot if we were to win the conference undefeated. 

    Note that FSU's implied probability to make the CFP is 41.7% based on +140. That's a pretty clear tradeoff to me. It's us or them with there also being some chaos scenarios where we both make it. 

    Furthermore, look at selection history. Unless I'm missing something, and this is my first time looking at this chart so I might be, no 0/1-loss conference champ has ever been passed up for a non-champ (excluding Notre Dame of course). The years OSU/Bama/UGA/TCU made it as non-champs had at least two 2-loss conference champs

    image.png.1a28ac4b85f6afb5c5a36410bc80b604.png

  11. 6 minutes ago, hornbri said:

    You know that has more to do with the odds of each of those teams winning out than anything else right? I bet the odds of Texas winning its next two games and the odds of Texas making the playoffs are virtually equal. 

    image.png.71b9863b675a0345397f07c8a5e480f8.png

    These are the Big 12 title odds. That's not exactly the same as us winning out, but it converts to a 67.7% implied probability. 

    Using the numbers from above, we're +130 to make the CFP. 43.5% implied probability. 

    So, Vegas gives us about a 2/3 chance to make it if we win the conference. That would be a higher shot if we were to win the conference undefeated. 

    Note that FSU's implied probability to make the CFP is 41.7% based on +140. That's a pretty clear tradeoff to me. It's us or them with there also being some chaos scenarios where we both make it. 

    • Hook 'Em 2
  12. 3 hours ago, closetojumping said:

    You spend a lot of time each week, and during the offseason, shitting yourself over all of the ways Texas will lose and fail to live up to standards. It seems like hard fucking work, so, good for you, I guess. 

    I don’t think it takes these posters a whole lot of time. Pretty sure they have templates that they can copy/paste and just change out opponent team names because I think I’ve read the same shit on everyone one of these threads 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  13. Hey y'all I have a personal favor to ask everyone on this board. Please mute shadow op. If you won't do it for yourself, do it for me. 

     

    7 hours ago, Codaxx said:

    People have criticized Quinn for his lack of emotion, but it is really one of his greatest attributes. He wasn’t very good in the 1, though neither was Sark’s script (I have noticed Quinn locks on more during the script). He was straight bad vs OU in the 1Q. He rallied to look excellent in the 2nd half of both games. Texas is a 10 win team and the offensive success is centered around the passing game, yet people are constantly bitching. Think about the difference from last year to this year. The 2022 team saw every defense loading the box and daring Quinn to beat them. This year every team plays the pass and gives Texas honest numbers in the run game. Quinn is the MVP of this offense 

    Personally I'd still give offensive MVP to Worthy. He's so good. And I realize this is the Quinn thread, so sorry for the diatribe. All defenses schemed to shut him down in the first half of the year. And now his stats are showing up because it didn't work. X won't be a beloved legend because of his... well, let's just call them some unfortunate moments. And those are mistakes that are fair to criticize. But the dude warps entire game plans and game flows like not many other Longhorns have. 

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    • Like 2
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