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Rip76

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  1. Jeff Lindner-

    7-5-25 800pm

    Summary of ongoing flooding, Lake levels, and forecast 

    Flash flooding continues over portions of the I-35 corridor.
     
    While rainfall has weakened early this evening there remains the potential for isolated excessive rainfall again tonight across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor.
     
    Ongoing river flooding will NOT impact any portions of southeast Texas.
     
    Rivers:
     
    South Fork of the San Gabriel River:

    The headwaters of the river received 16-20 inches of rainfall overnight generating a catastrophic floodwave that moved downstream through Georgetown today. The river has crested and falling quickly back within banks, but numerous locations along the river have suffered extensive damage including several homes, RV recreational locations, and roadways.
     
    Catastrophic flash flooding over southern Burnet, NW Travis, and western Williamson Counties have resulted in at least 6 fatalities overnight and several persons are still missing.
     
    San Saba River:

    Extremely high flows on the San Saba River into the town of San Saba has resulted in extensive flooding. The river is starting to fall while the downstream floodwave enters the Colorado River and Lake Buchanan. Lake Buchanan will be able to store the incoming flood flows and no releases are expected.
     
    Highland Lakes and Lake Travis:

    High inflows from the Llano River into Lake LBJ and Marble Falls has resulted in floodgate operation by LCRA to pass flood flows through these lakes and downstream to Lake Travis. Due to inflows from upstream as well as the 10-16 inches of rain that fell near the northeast end of Lake Travis this morning a significant rise of 17ft in the lake pool over the last 24 hours has occurred. However Lake Travis is still well below its conservation pool and will be able to completely store all the incoming run-off without any floodgate operations and releases downstream.
     
    Guadelupe River:

    Catastrophic flooding along the Guadelupe River from upstream of Hunt TX to downstream of Spring Branch TX has now fully terminated into Canyon Lake. Canyon Lake has risen 7.0ft from the inflows, but the lake remains 26 ft below its normal pool due to the long term drought in this area. As a result all flows will be contained in Canyon Lake and no floodgate operations or releases will be required.
     
    Search and rescue operations continue along the Guadelupe River. Damaged infrastructure is making some areas only accessible by aircraft or ATV’s.
     
    43 fatalities (28 adults and 15 children)
    850 persons rescued
    8 injured
    The number of missing and unaccounted is fluid and fluctuating.
     
    This event is now the deadliest flash flood event along the upper Guadelupe River in modern times. Previously the July 1987 flood which swept a school bus of 43 campers off a low water crossing and resulted in 10 fatalities was the deadliest.  
     
    Lower Guadelupe River:

    Heavy rains today below Cayon Lake/Dam resulted in a 12-15 ft rise in the river from below the dam to New Braunfels resulting in rapid evacuations of recreational areas in this region. Downstream rises at Gonzales, Cuero, and Victoria are expected this week, but levels are not forecasted to reach significant or damaging levels.
     
    Forecast:

    Mid level trough axis combined with tropical moisture from the remnants of Barry and Flossie (eastern Pacific) continues to produce isolated but incredibly intense rainfall bombs. LCRA gages last night were recording hourly rainfall rates of 6.0-7.0 inches near Lago Vista TX with 2-3 hours totals of 10-16 inches which rivals some of the most impressive Texas rainfall rates.
     
    While rainfall has weakened this evening, tropical moisture and subtle lift will once again prime the Hill Country and I-35 corridor for the potential for excessive rainfall tonight into early Sunday. Guidance is not showing as strong of a signal as the last few nights, but given the trends of the last 48 hours and a similar air mass the potential is still there. As always in these types of situations it is the where, how fast, and which river or creek. Using the more extreme high end solutions has worked best the last few days and this again tonight suggest isolated totals of 10-15 inches will be at least possible.
     
    While rainfall has worked deeper into SE TX today, no significant rainfall amounts or flash flooding is expected as our local area is removed from the best lift and on the eastern side of the best moisture feed.

    • Hook 'Em 6
  2. 1 hour ago, Rip76 said:

    Man this is all just so much to take in.  After living through Harvey, other Hurricanes, and numerous flood events it’s all so tiring (even when you’re not directly involved. 

    Other than the unbearable heat most summers, I love this state and its people.  It’s so heartbreaking to see just story after story of loss and sadness.  Then to see good news sprinkle through just to give a little lift.  I can’t imagine what the people who have lost loved ones are going through.

    It just doesn’t seem fair at all.

    To Texas and all of you.  Hope I can help other than monetarily.

     

     

    IMG_9681.jpeg

    Sorry.  I mean other than just monetarily.

    I’ve got some vacation time left.

  3. 1 minute ago, phdhorn said:

    Update:
    3 p.m. NWS bulletin didn't really have much different.. lots of rain, system not going anywhere significant, hopefully some downshifting with nighttime (although these things can ramp up overnight, one hopes the atmosphere gets some stability and quits for awhile).

    My hope is that the system will meander slowly to the E, following a track it's already been taking. Today was Austin's day to get the brunt, so hopefully it'll move east of us tonight, as I've posted today. The rains today were decent but definitely more light/moderate than prolonged heavy (and at least there's been movement of the storms and not all that much training, they've been circulating in frontal (i.e. perpendicular to their movement) direction).

    Tomorrow's forecast is interesting, I'll post iater tonight (not terrible but not particularly the usual). Just want to get more confirmation about it. Anything on your mind hit me up here.

     

    Is this still tropical and may possibly ramp up again at night or would daytime heating fire the storms up now.

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