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dimyh

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Everything posted by dimyh

  1. Really hope that there is an Andrei Dufresnevich working to escape Putin's bunker and leaving a special parting gift. Like his big red button no longer activates his nukes but permanetly seals his bunker shut and turns on a never ending broadcast loop of Zelensky playing piano with his dong.
  2. Thought this was already disclosed in a previous post...
  3. Article talking about some of the possible economic ramifications as part of the peace treaties. https://samf.substack.com/p/the-bankrupt-colonialist
  4. I'm picking Hasbulla to lead my small but elite gang of carnies to assassinate Putin.
  5. I would guess a small tactical nuke would be used on a supply hub, logistics based target somewhere in western Ukraine. Not a major metro area as that may be considered a major escalation. Someplace smaller, with some type of military importance, as they will be testing the waters too. They don't want escalation; just compliance. They just want to demonstrate their willingness to be crazy enough to utilize nukes at a small scale. They are not going to lob anything into NATO. It would be directed in Ukraine but in a way to announce to NATO you're not welcome. Western Ukraine would be a way to target part of the territory that Putin is now writing off as unobtainable. Plus it's just a big fuck you to NATO about providing military supplies. Since it's in Ukraine it wouldn't classify as an article 5 attack but would be a strong message for anyone volunteering in that area. Either that or trying to target the remaining airfields. Again just another plausible military type of target that would not generate maximum outrage like a civilian metro area.
  6. I still hold out a sliver of hope that this can still turn into a massive win. Maybe it’s the Ghost of Vince Young topping off my burnt orange Koolaid year after year but there is chance to make this a program defining change. It is a bit silly comparing this Ukrainian struggle to some vague sports reference because the stakes are very real. This is not some gridiron glory. People are dying and there are many more to come which just breaks my heart. But there is one thing very relevant to this whole discussion: Putin has made a tremendous blunder. Which also means there is a tremendous opportunity in front of us. It has become very clear after 3 weeks: Russian military is decimated. Not just in equipment and manpower but in overall reputation. No one is fearing their sitzkrieg invasion prowess. They can barely waddle down the end of their driveway, put down a lawn chair, and then lob explosive lawn darts at their next-door neighbor. Plus they didn’t even plan to bring enough beer and brats to last longer than a weekend cookout! Even if they escape this war without further major losses, they will be spending years trying to reform their army and replenishing lost equipment. Russian economy is decimated. Whatever territorial and mineral rights gains it may win from Ukraine is not going to offset the current economic damage. Even if the sanctions soften over time, the decoupling from Western markets is going to be too huge of a hole to recover from. The old Soviet Union was in a better economic situation and still could not afford to match Western defense spending. The new Putin empire is far from that capability and in the best situation is going to have a historical redux moment. NATO unification. Clearly the unprovoked attacks have galvanized the EU like nothing else in recent memory. For such a skillful propagandist, Putin doesn’t seem to understand that building “us vs them” narratives just strengthens both sides. While it may be important to build for his domestic support, the fact that his aggression is only going to strengthen the resolve of his number one enemy. Worldwide condemnation. While not as strong as the EU response, nonetheless the fact that a record majority of nations disapproved of his invasion is a strong indicator of what a pariah Putin’s state has become. Ukrainian identity. The entire world underestimated the will of the Ukrainian people. While a national identity has always been building this invasion simply accelerates that growth. Not only for the fine Ukrainian citizens but this is clear to the rest of the world that this is clearly a sovereign nation. Ukrainian bloodlines. Finally, maybe the greatest blunder of all is the targeting of Slavic brothers and sisters in this attack. While the Putin propaganda machine is spinning the demilitarization and denazification angles to his home audience. The longer this rolls along the more real news is going to trickle back. Once the Russian citizens start learning about the level of atrocities then that is what ties into the greatest opportunity for a successful resolution. I’m not delusional in that we will ever get Russia to give up nukes or reverse course and become a joyful member in NATO. The opportunity to recalibrate that perception of a Russian strong man needed in their leadership. If (and that’s the big IF) Putin can be ousted and made the scapegoat then there is a good chance that it may become the wakeup call needed. While not as dramatic as the Germans firsthand experience of cleaning up the concentration camps, once average Russian citizens start learning of the flagrant destruction in civilian areas then that may drive that level of outcry needed to change that overall mentality. Who knew that the goosestepping Germans of the 1940’s would turn into the shame-ridden pacifists of today? While I don’t believe that wild of a swing is possible but the fact that public perception can be pushed back to a healthier level is definitely feasible. The under 30 set is not tied into that old Soviet empire mentality. Getting another decade or two, another generation away from that expectation can eventually drive home that the West is not their enemy. Its like the reunion scene between John Cusack and Beamer Bob in Gross Pointe Blank, “Do you really believe that there is some stored up conflict between us that exists?” Long term goal should always be to convince the general Russian populace that the West is not an adversary but a partner. Of course the challenge is getting Putin to “step down”. Which is why if this continues to escalate then the potential play is to engage in the next in command. Find someone from their nuclear chain of command that can be more rational and eager to see that their future no longer aligns with Putin. Putin has to be made the scapegoat. Putin has to be portrayed as the madman. That would be part of the post-war narrative which could absolve some of the next in command. Give them that out along with some assurances that we will work with them to build that narrative that this was an unhinged wargoal. Point that propaganda machinegun on Putin and denounce his actions. Give that general Russian populace the same shock that we have been seeing for weeks now. This is definitely the riskier stance, possibly only coming into play once nuclear escalation threats are ratcheted up, and not something we seek to initiate but may be necessary depending on the circumstances. It may take that level of escalation to gain a commitment on the Russian side to initiate a coup. No one wants to see their country devasted and time turned back 1000 years just because their boss is an asshole. So it needs to be made clear that regime change equals dropping certain level of sanctions. Ceasefire and withdrawal of troops equals further elimination of sanctions (reinstatement of SWIFT, etc). Opening up Russian media to allow some Western sources to provide a wider viewpoint equals further return of funds and assets. That public backlash should help propel some fundamental changes such as freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, freedom of media, etc which should help illustrate the inherent problems with dictatorships. Pushing for reforms such as hard term limits, limiting executive powers, etc help diminish that autocratic drive would be major win and a not so subtle jab at China. Sure it is all a very wishful scenario but it is not completely implausible. The safe play to avoid escalations should also be eventually successful but it does not have that potential payoff with the current scenario. Because right now has to be one of the weakest moments for Russia. Military in disarray. Leadership disorganized. Economic uncertainty. Worldwide condemnation. It may be quite a while for an idiot to make a mistake this overwhelming to line up all of these negative factors at one time on the world stage. So if this continues to escalate it may become more of a question, “if not now, then when”? tldr - Scapegoat Putin, give new regime the path out and for Russian outcry vs autocracy. ??? -> profit
  7. Really hope that clears the way for Putin to be swinging from the gallows pole. You know, to keep it legal and such. Otherwise it could be awhile before he is close enough to a balcony to lose his "balance".
  8. Exactly. And I believe NS2 was slated to start up midyear, so Putin could have gotten them used to drinking straight from the tap for a few months before making the big threats.
  9. Yeah I was wondering about the timing of it all once it became a full fledged invasion. Seems like waiting 4-5 months would have been more ideal. For a guy that is so passionate about history, Putin sure is a dumbass about some major Russian events.
  10. Pimp my ride Ukrainian edition. Just needs a backseat Bert for maximum trolling. They see me riding dirty...
  11. Invasion of parachuting Asian spiders? Fine, nothing to worry about. If one lands in my backyard I will just adopt him and call him Rarry.
  12. It's like being at the pool hall. "Tank in the corner pocket." Slava Ukraine!
  13. Question is how many different people are involved in the launch process? If Putin gives the order is there a chance that the subordinates refuse?
  14. So any credible theories on how the current launch procedures work? How long is the chain of command? Dead hand automation? Any potential communication issues with sub launches? Its clear that there enough nukes to blow us to hell, just trying to figure out possible interruption points if we do get into a hot war or if Putin continues to double down.
  15. Not a bad idea think I'll blast some Skynard before the nukes hit...
  16. Any estimate on ACV of all of this equipment destroyed? Would love to understand how much this war has cost them so far and also curious how much more this can cost them as this continues to stretch out. There has already been so much material losses on the Russian side that we may see diminishing returns with a protracted war posture.
  17. Fuck buying at retail prices...I'm just going to hire a couple of Ukrainian farmers to haul those bad boys off.
  18. Well I feel better that they have Dave Attel on the scene. Crack a few jokes, lighten the mood and maybe we can get some tight sphincter mutha fuckers to relax enough to score a deal.
  19. Should score some of those free Russian passports being tossed around in the Donbas and declare themselves as the new Russian liberation air force.
  20. Sucks being on the other end of a proxy war, right Vlad? Motherfucking nuclear karma right there bitch!
  21. Exactly. Sounds like he would be pissing in his own cereal. So what is the yield on these tact nukes and how would he use them in Ukraine?
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