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TKthunder2

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  1. This is a thread about ERCOT, talking about private power producers is okay, Austin Energy not okay. Let’s not focus when the city we like does the same thing as the private power producers we don’t like (like not keep enough quick start capacity on hand because it’s expensive) because it doesn’t fit our narrative. If the narrative is more regulation and municipal owned/operated is better then why is our most local example such a shit show? I’d rather see community owned co-ops personally myself.
  2. Austin Energy had a half billion dollar biomass plant in Nacogdoches that recently bought in 2019 (because they had to in order to get out of a nearly criminally bad contract they royally fucked up when drawing it up https://www.kxan.com/investigations/austins-biomass-power-plant-idled-again-during-mid-june-energy-crunch/ ) that they couldn’t get turned on to produce ANY electricity during the storm. They had also decommissioned two “low efficiency” but still fully operational power generators at Decker just 3 month previously with no plans for replacing them or their capacity (basically being green but cutting costly generation infrastructure just like everyone on here is complaining about private power companies doing the same thing). On the small but still important side of things, AE also had a shit ton of untrimmed vegetation that fucked with lines, old/outdated infrastructure that should have been replaced (like transformers) that also fucked people over. They also have no permanent plan towards burying any power lines even in high vegetation/wildfire risk areas where it would be extremely advantageous or even when neighborhoods and HOAs have offered to cover the cost (since that wouldn’t be fair somehow). The only ones that do get buried are either downtown/adjacent or East side in council favored projects like Mueller. No power company is perfect, but Austin Energy should not be getting a pass on their lack of preparation for the winter storm. Last I heard (to lazy to site my sources) they are still planning on mothballing the Nacogdoches plant this winter where it can’t be easily spun up and they still have not replaced the capacity at the Decker plant and despite having nearly $1 billion in reserves previously to spend on infrastructure improvements (like new generators, transformers, and buried power lines) they have made few to any improvements until the backlash of the winter storm forced them to put on a show for the rest of the year, and now that fund is rapidly being depleted since they have been running a deficit since COVID and are asking to increase rates despite already being the highest priced provider in the region. Private power and the State/ERCOT deserve the scorn they get on here, but Austin Energy shouldn’t be exempt just because of “my team” CR bullshit reasons. Fuck them all, fix this shit.
  3. Removing Texas/Oklahoma matchups since that will continue: Below is the number of total matchups for Texas History of current SEC matchups: 293 History of current Big 12-OU matchups: 382 The majority (72%) of our history with the Big 12-OU is with Baylor (111), TCU (92), and Tech (71). Okie St (36) is the next most as an honorable mention. We’ve been trying to ditch the rape loving, cat killing Baptists of the brown water for 30 years and we did ditch the cockroaches so no shits given about that “history”. Slight (very slight) remorse about Tech (and Okie St) but the PAC leadership failure killed that. Even after a decade of having annual games against Iowa St, Kansas, and K State shoved down our throat our most played Big 12 North opponent to date is still Missouri. That last decade of 9 (8 w/o OU) conference games boosted the Big 12 numbers by 80 over the SEC which then only gives them a small advantage total and most of us here don’t give a shit about the last 10 years. Texas moving to the SEC is losing some minor history but reconnecting with 2 former top rivals, using a tradition/history argument on UT is idiotic. The best case scenario for Texas was annual conference games against Oklahoma, aggy, and Arkansas and that is about to become a reality, spinning this as Texas losing traditional matchups is insane. OU on the other hand is: History of current SEC matchups: 167 (mostly Mizzou) History of current Big 12-UT matchups: 513 But here’s the deal, yes that’s a lot of history however not all history is valued the same. Of the Big 8 Oklahoma had a winning record against everyone but the teams that did best against OU were (in order): Nebraska (.546 win%), Colorado (.695), Missouri (.724), Kansas (.732), K State (.775), Okie St (.806), and finally Iowa St (.900). This is similar to Texas and aggy leaving the SWC after Arkansas left, no real good way to sugar coat how much little they cared about tech/uh and the private schools and how much that “history” was an anchor around the neck. After that (and again excluding UT) Oklahoma has played Baylor the most (32 times) and Tech (29) which is barely more than they’ve played Tulsa (28). So Oklahoma lost its 3 most competitive games that sold season tickets and basically got more random filler from TX/WV as replacement on their schedule along with 2 long played games of programs that have been trending down for a decade now, one former doormat trending up, and an instate rival. The best situation for Oklahoma would be annual conference matchups with Texas, Nebraska, and Okie St And since the Big Ten wasn’t willing to play ball the Nebraska window has closed. So honestly the only thing they lost was Okie State and if they are lobbying for them to have a spot if/when the SEC goes beyond 20 teams then good for them because then this would turn this from a good move, to a great move as they have 3 of their 5 most played games and 2 of their top 3 all time rivals (and there’s a small chance Kansas could get an invite too which would also give them 4/5).Annual conference games with Texas, Okie St, and Mizzou at least make sense historically speaking rather than just elbowing in another random SEC team like South Carolina or Mississippi State.
  4. Again, they won’t pay them $100 million now. They’ll only pay $50 million but it’ll secure their spot in a power conference so that’s a trade everyone of them will make. Seattle and the Bay Area markets for the BTN might be too tempting plus Cal/Stanford make the presidents wet between the knees, Washington/Oregon are the best remaining fb properties not locked up for the next decade excluding ND. Speaking of the Irish landing Stanford helps with getting them in the fold and makes the Big Ten the ideal academic conference that reflects the same ideals the Irish are striving for. Once under contract with the Big Ten, Fox won’t have to complete with ESPN for the Big 12 (though they will because why cut your rival a break to save more capital for the next round of contract negotiations). FOX would have the best late night inventory and they’d barely have to pay anymore since they are competing against a low ball ESPN offer to the PAC and not a specific offer to UO/UW/Stan/Cal which is worth more due to markets/brand/success (omitting Cal on that last one). Make $50 million a year in the Big Ten knowing you’ll make less than your conference mates until the next contract…or make $50 million a year in the Big 12. Seems like a no brainer to me. Its also why the 4 corner schools are dumb not to be forcing the issue now. The longer they wait the less leverage they have. Allowing the Big Ten deal to close now isn’t helping Arizona&co, its only helping Oregon&co.
  5. I don’t think the Big Ten desperately wants more Western schools but FOX needs them. Also this is the end game. If they let the PAC school like Cal/Washington rot out West then they have only themselves to blame when they don’t have AAU level schools that fit the mold of what the Big Ten is looking for. I don’t think the Big Ten is interested in diluting their payout by just expanding to expand, which is why they won’t without ND unless the noobs agree to a reduced revenue share throughout the terms of the current contract. If the 16 team Big Ten pulls in $100 million per member per year but Oregon/Washington/Stanford/Cal only pull in $40 million then they’d make them a deal that they’ll only get 40 until the next renegotiation since the other members were unwilling to take pay cuts, and the new members really will have no choice but to accept. I don’t see much of the ACC as a good value add for the Big Ten. If they can get ND they’d still have 3 more spots for Miami, GT, UNC, UVA or whoever.
  6. I agree that’s what will happen this time in Texas. I disagree that it was a forgone conclusion. If they had no power Texas and the SEC would have announced it earlier, but as we’ve seen in previous attempts to join the SEC and PAC they can prevent a move like this if they have enough time to plan and get out in front of it. The secrecy, timing, and B1G/LA moves is what has cemented this in place, not because the legislature is incapable. What everyone is waiting on: Big Ten TV deal to be finalized. What does CBS do with two contracted games in the midday time slots in 2023? What shakes out with the PAC/B12. ESPN will have a large hole to fill without B1G content. Adding UT/OU games against the big brands of the SEC will be novel and fill those spots in their lineup. They can also stop doing their one off LHN/Sooner stuff and roll that into the SECN. Unless CBS has some beneficial language in their deal, they likely can’t keep both games. Maybe FOX buys out the first year but if that seemed like a good plan why include CBS at all? Selling the SEC to ESPN at a high rate could give them a year if the Big Ten effectively free. Then ESPN only has to deal with the Big 12 who gets the last two years of conference payout from departing members. Since the new B12 members don’t bring in any more money until the next contract they’ll only be shrinking the slice of pie everyone gets when they join AND the exit fees UT/OU are leaving behind. Also as it’s been pointed out UT/OU winning the conference would not be a great look. Seems like a missed opportunity when you had Baylor/Okie St playing for it all last year to say we don’t need you but with the 2020 COVID season I get why they wanted to wait until at least this year. Still IF ESPN decides to make this play then working with the B12 to peel off PAC12 schools will benefit both the B12 and ESPN in the long run. Some could come to the B12 others May take a haircut in the B1G, but either way ESPN would own 3 of the 4 Power leagues and the Big 12 (and ACC) would be in better positions with the PAC12 losing their power status both competitively and financially. The only problem here is FOX. They still have a midday slot that needs filling and the B12 is the conference that owns that spot currently. They may be willing to negotiate early and get out under that contract, however since they needs content that seems unlikely and I assume holding and reevaluating the landscape might be beneficial after these last moves. The only reason for FOX to play ball is to get USC/UCLA to the B1G sooner or to facilitate the next B1G expansion West.
  7. Tell me that you don’t know much about a Texas politics without telling me…fuck it https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighty-seventh_Texas_Legislature Bicameral means every two years. 87th Legislature ran until May 31st, 2021 The SEC move didn’t leak until July 22nd, 2021 (this was intentional, the circle was kept on a very small need to know basis until the Regular Session ended in May). The legislature was in on a special session, however… https://texasscorecard.com/commentary/what-is-a-special-session/ So the legislature could call its dog and pony show since they were technically “in session” but without Abbott (like it or not, a UT grad) putting higher education review or something similar on his agenda they could do anything until Jan 2023. Will anything happen? I’m sure some new bill will pop up trying to force tech or cougar high into the PUF but as long as aggy doesn’t fuck it up those will fail like usual. There will be some unkind words at the higher ed committee with legislators trying to get easy layup sounds bites for their constituents, but at this point the genie is likely not going back in the bottle for two reasons: #1 everyone can now see the endgame (Thanks USC/UCLA/B1G) and having two schools in the cool kids club when certain states may soon have zero is better than the status quo. Plus if there is a chance to get Tech in, it will only come with both UT & aggy pushing for it from within. It’s basically been settled and the public has moved on, trying to turn back UT to the B12 will not happen. Our legislators will be armed with prepared talking note about how aggy left without a big fuss or how UH just ditched SMU without a big hoopla and how this an “opportunity for all” which leads me to… #2 Most of the state of Texas D1 outside of came out ahead in these last few rounds of realignment. aggy then Texas> SEC, TCU then UH > B12, SMU then Rice/UNT/UTSA > AAC, and SHSU > CUSA, TX St > SunBelt, SFA/ACU/Tarelton/UTRGV > WAC, TAMU-Commerce > Southland. That’s only baylor (rape), tech (bad market/bad timing/bad decade), and UTEP (incompetence) stalling out/not advancing and those three don’t really have enough pull to do much other than kick and scream a little.
  8. Correct on Sony, incorrect on Hulk. Marvel owns Hulk 100%. In the early days of the MCU it had distribution partners like Paramount and Universal for its films. They bought back all the rights from Paramount but didn’t think it was worth buying back Hulk from Universal. Disney can make as many Hulk movies as they want, Universal simply has the first right of refusal to distribute any film (not TV). Seeing how Disney owns both production and distribution it would be easy to make the deal extremely unattractive for Universal which will allow them to distribute.
  9. That seems incorrect…it’s 2022 shouldn’t it be “2th Person”
  10. I could see ND getting guaranteed slotting on NBC for their home games for slightly less revenue for the duration of this next contract (assuming their NBC deal remains). ND’s away games (think ND@Rutgers) will increase the value for the Big Ten’s contract which would allow them to add Stanford/others and increase their west coast/late night presence. ND gets to keep its NBC relationship (for this contract), makes more money than staying independent (but not full Big Ten shares if their NBC deal is worth less), has access to premium bowls and the CFP, has locked in games with USC/Stanford that frees up availability on their OOC schedule, and more local travel for other sports. Big Ten gets more money to spread out to add more West Coast footprint for late night features and gives these one off deals setting up the standard relationship for all in their next contract. FOX/CBS gets ND away games (currently under ACC/ESPN) NBC gets better ND home game content, and FOX gets more quality late night content.
  11. https://awfulannouncing.com/fox/six-questions-espn-big-ten-split.html So ESPN could end up with the SEC’s tier one game next year if CBS cuts them a deal. Could see ESPN going all in and working with the Big 12 to renegotiate early and help them pull PAC10 schools in exchange for early release of Texas/OU. ESPN to Big 12: Let Texas/OU go, add 4 more western members to give us late night inventory and we’ll give you a solid contract with a guaranteed regional broadcast at 11am on ABC in the Western half of the country and member states/metros and ESPN2 in the Eastern half with the ACC having the opposite setup, a permanent Late showcase on ESPN and a chance at a national broadcast on ABC prime time when you have a great matchup that can beat out the #2 SEC and #1 ACC game (or a chance at ESPN in the afternoon slot when you can’t). Noon: B12/ACC on ABC/ESPN2, SEC on ESPN Afternoon: SEC on ABC, Big12/ACC in ESPN/2 Prime: Best remaining games on ABC/ESPN (most likely/often SEC #2 but could be something like FSU/Clemson or ACC/ND away game or solid ranked v ranked B12 teams) Late: Big12 Western member on ESPN and ESPN2 SEC: 1-2 on ABC (Afternoon/Prime), 1-2 on ESPN(Noon/Prime), 1-2 on ESPN2/U (Noon/Prime), and 3 on SECN (Noon/Afternoon/Prime) Big12+4: 0-1 on ABC national (Prime), 1 on regional ABC/ESPN2 mirror (Noon), 1-2 on ESPN (Afternoon/Prime/Late), 3 on ESPN2/U (Late and whenever) 2-3 on ESPN+ (Whenever) ACC: 0-1 on ABC national (Prime), 1 on regional ABC/ESPN2 mirror (Noon), 0-2 on ESPN (Afternoon/Prime), 3 on ESPN2/U (Late and whenever) 3 on ACCN (Noon/Afternoon/Prime)
  12. Yep IF true (early reporting is often very one sided). Yep, even if you look at it from the water park’s POV, they still fucked up in how they handled the situation.
  13. https://www.kansascity.com/news/local/article264300966.html Looks like they booked (and the park staffed) for 250 and over 500 showed even after it was canceled.
  14. Umm this is America man. Most people always want more money. I don’t think your second statement is true. Conference distribution sure, but add in the LHN and if Texas made less I still wouldn’t says SEC/B1G we’re making ‘much’ more.
  15. It was reported that they were taking over that game in that time slot. “The deal will establish ABC as the new broadcast home for the SEC’s flagship Saturday afternoon football games, as well as selected Saturday primetime fixtures and the annual conference championship.” https://www.sportspromedia.com/news/sec-espn-abc-football-tv-rights-cbs/
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