I've seen analytics that give the statistical correlation of penalties and points. The most consequential fouls are holds (drive-killer), PI (drive-extender), and personal fouls (15 yards and a first down is a lot of real estate).
The 15-yarder against Filsame (for literally nothing) was a big drive-extender for them.
The flagrant and uncalled PI in the end zone was highly likely to have cost us points that would have ended the game.
The 2-pointer was... 2 points, and the difference between needing FG to tie or TD to win.
The absurd "false start" when their lineman was well beyond the LOS would have meant 4th and 1 for us instead of 4th and 11. It may or may not have cost us points, but had we converted that fourth down, we run out the clock with a 2-score lead.
I'm already seeing "Texas barely survived" stories, and when you're likely to be in a playoff logjam in 5 weeks, it's pretty shitty that we ended up with that narrative.