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NBMisha

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Posts posted by NBMisha

  1. Gil

    From the outside, this could very well be rational perspective.  Hell, I lived in CA a total of 15 years, 3 different stints.  I liked it very much, my wife loved it.  But when retiring, the analytics did indeed put a large penalty on moving to CA.  And for someone who is not culturally attuned to LA, it can be a bad gig for the family side.  Just sayin' that it is not a no brainer, or laughable that one would have reluctance.

  2. Post about laying some $ on the ISU + 3 looks like a pretty good risk mitigation option.

    For competitive B12 matchups we need a greater than average favorable impact of turnovers and exceptional plays by our skill players.  It can happen, and it has happened, but it can't be predicted.   Based on the last half dozen games the outcome is a tossup.  Based on this opponent, I think our win probability is less than 50%.  Still, we can hope for getting more than our share of good stuff.

    Further, I have to think ISU's player mindset is much more favorable that that of Texas' players.  I.e. their confidence in their ability to execute, and their focus.

     

  3. That's why its the prediction.

     

    All this post game analysis is simply in the service of prediction, and we have the most robust predicitve model now that I have ever seen.  We have to hope for random error in our favor.

  4. Been also doing TVZ version of Dead Flowers, having fun with the double base line rambling picking version of Freight Train.  Then the Fleetwood Mac thread had me trying out some acoustic version of Tusk.  (!)  The singing part is damn fun, but irritates the hell out of the wife.

     

    From the posts above, I think Baby Please Don't Go is next.

  5. The book rationale is that in cost plus you are bearing more cost uncertainty, and in fixed price the GC is bearing more.  But, for both, the change order process is their way to recover most unforseen issues.  It all boils down to the quality of the GC and their subs.

    But, for empirical data:  a significant remodel in Seattle about 5 years ago was cost plus.  We uncovered lots of issues so the scope exploded.  Fixed price would not have been much help there.  But, the productivity of the GC's own guys was too low.  Put some productivity terms in your contract.

    An even more significant remodel in FL last year went fixed price, with the largest GC in town.  They ended up being as professional as I was used to in industry.  An 8 month schedule ended up 9, due to having to stop for a hurricane.   Cost came in just a tad under bid, and I got that difference, due to the contract.  This job was 3x the size of the Seattle job.

    If schedule is not that critical, your brother plan can work, if you put a whole lot of attention into it, and incentivise him appropriatetly through a contract.

     

     

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