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TXSooner518

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Posts posted by TXSooner518

  1. 1 minute ago, Rickylovesweed said:

    You don't think the style of play has an impact on certain predictive metrics/systems? 

    Bill Connelly has personally admitted that SP+ (S&P back in the day) for whatever reason did not properly predict/evaluate Herman's teams. Even when he was at Houston. Ian Boyd and Bill Connelly had a long discussion about this a few years ago. 

    What, specifically, does Wyoming do and how, specifically, does it affect the metrics?

  2. 1 minute ago, Magus Ossis said:

    Advanced metrics are models. The best model in the universe can't reliably extrapolate from the ability to beat bad teams to know whether you'll play well against a good team early in the season. There is literally a complete absence of the data of interest resulting in total dependence on guessing how to interpret proxy data which is known not to map closely. OU looks good to models that are analyzing turds for data. If OU had even 30 snaps on each side of the ball this year against a solid opponent, the computers would have at least something on which to chew. As it stands, those metrics are just guessing, as shown by the fact that expert humans all seem to agree that OU should be the underdog, but ESPN's machines disagree. The machines are not stupid; they lack useful data.

    Most models have OU the slight underdog. And those models are used heavily in a multibillion dollar industry, it's pretty laughable that you think they are wholly unreliable. The biggest thing is of course that every team has a range of possible results, and so you get outlier outcomes when one team is at the far end of its range and the other is at the opposite end of theirs. Or individual fluky plays. But if OU and Texas could run this game a million times, the end result would be pretty close to 500k-500k. Tech-Wyoming pretty close to 800k-200k Tech. 

  3. 2 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

    No, I just don't take advanced metrics as the end all be all. At the end of the day, it's about wins and losses. 

    When Tech is 20 or 30 spots higher than Wyoming in the advanced metrics (like ESPN efficiency) it's not about "who would be the favorite" it's just that Wyoming is probably undervalued. 

    When Wyoming is 5-1 after this weekend with wins against a P5 team, a decent G5 team in App State, a really good G5 team in Fresno State, and a close loss to Texas I could give two shits if they are ranked outside the top 70 in advanced metrics. They're definitely better than that based on their resume. 

     

     

    Wait I had it on good authority Wyoming got the piss beaten out of them. @Fumbles get in here!  

    And predictive metrics are exactly about who is better and who would win going forward, not about evaluating resumes. I'm waiting for that explanation about how Wyoming's style of play confounds all the systems though. 

  4. Just now, Rickylovesweed said:

    Of course Tech would be favored again. When did I deny that? 

    My point is that Wyoming is not the 80th best team in the country. That will be obvious this weekend when they beat a really good Fresno State team. 

    When you said "For instance, Texas Tech is still ranked above Wyoming in almost every advanced metric by a good bit even though Wyoming beat them."  If you agree Tech is better, then of course they should be higher in advanced metrics. 

  5. 11 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

    Spread was Texas -7.5 last year.

    We were discussing this last year over 7am Fair parking lot booze and gummies and decided it had to mean Gabriel was playing. If you could have assured me he wasn't taking snaps, I would have bet literally every penny of disposable income I had on Texas. Beville is legit the worst QB I've ever seen start for OU and I went there and attended every home game for the Schnelly and Blake years. 

  6. Just now, Rickylovesweed said:

    The issue with the advanced metrics is they don't value Wyoming as much as they should based on their style of play. 

    For instance, Texas Tech is still ranked above Wyoming in almost every advanced metric by a good bit even though Wyoming beat them. When Wyoming beats a ranked Fresno State team this weekend people will start to realize that the advanced metrics aren't an accurate reflection of them as a team. 

    So you have figured out a "style of play" loophole in advanced metrics that Sagarin, Connelly, Vegas, etc., are all blind to and unable to correct? Please describe exactly how Wyoming's style of play creates this conundrum. Does it bake in that their starting QB missed the Texas game? Also, if Tech and Wyoming played again, Tech would be favored again. Tech ran fairly bad to lose that game. I agree Wyoming isn't garbage, but if you play in the Cotton Bowl the way you did the first three quarters of that game, Texas will get their asses handed to them. 

    • Haha 1
  7. Just now, Constant said:

    Which metric are you referring to here? Just my eyes alone would say Colorado has played a tougher schedule than Texas. 

    Or Florida State. Or Ole Miss. Or LSU, South Carolina, Auburn, Tulsa, a couple dozen other teams. But this dude thinks 10-10 in the 4th and failing to cover by multiple scores is "beating the piss" out of someone so may be a lost cause. 

    • Fuck You 1
  8. 2 minutes ago, Fumbles said:

    It was a 31-10 victory.  You can run whatever semantics arguments you want, whatever statistical arguments you want, OU hasn’t played anyone and Texas has looked dominant against the best schedule in football to this point.

    Please provide the source for "best schedule in football" because LOL no. One elite win for sure. Then Rice, Wyoming (with a backup QB), Kansas (with a backup QB), Baylor (with a backup QB).  

  9. 1 minute ago, Fumbles said:

    How did that 4th quarter end?

    Are you arguing that being tied 10-10 in the 4th quarter against a G5 team can ever be called "beating the piss" out of someone? You would call me out for saying OU "beat the piss" out of SMU, and SMU was never tied or in the lead after 0-0. 

    Also that 4th quarter ended with Wyoming covering the spread by 10.5 points, another solid argument against that being a "piss beating."

  10. 5 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

    Most models/advanced metrics have OU covering because they're a paper tiger. 

    They've been putting up inflated numbers against really bad teams. The same shit occurred last year when OU was ranked in the top 10 of several advanced metrics after the first 3  games. Veneables is really good at beating the shit out of bad teams early in the season. 

    LOL this take is like when people say "this team can't cover the spread, they suck!"  Oh, cool, that wasn't already baked in, they didn't know that team sucked when they set the line. 

    1 minute ago, Fumbles said:

    See, the nice thing about Texas is, we don’t have to cherry-pick stats to make our stats look good.  We’ve just beaten the piss out of everyone and after Saturday, that will include you.

    Weren't you tied with Wyoming on your home field in the 4th quarter?

    • Like 1
  11. 7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    Did you forget where you are?

    Sure, would expect most/all here to expect Texas to win. But some of the wishcasting or belief that it is still 2018 on the defensive side of the ball, or that literally every metric, including tons that adjust for opponent strength are alllll incorrect and you guys have it figured out instead is hilarious. Texas has a really really good team this year, and very well may win, and possibly can win handily. But things like "OU can't stop the run" and "OU's WRs suck" are pretty objectively false. 

  12. 2 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

    OU has some speed at the WR. The one thing I am a bit nervous about going in is how effectively we manage to defend deep shots. I have a feeling that Lebby is going to dial them up as much as he can. Fortunately, Gabriel seems to wilt a little bit against good defenses. 

    OU's WR blocking has also been really really good so far this season. Andrel Anthony is a playmaker, Nic Anderson is going to be a beast, Gibson is excellent now that he learned how to catch, and Stoops is really really reliable and tough. I think people will be surprised considerably if they think OU's WR are mid. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
    • Like 1
  13. 34 minutes ago, perfectchaos007 said:

    Their big tight end Stogner that transferred to USCe a couple years ago  transferred back to OU for this season. Hopefully we can get someone tall to cover him like Ryan Watts if he’s healthy 

    He's borderline worthless. I disagree with CTJ on the caliber of OU's RB and WR, but TE is a glaring weakness. 

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