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MuellerHorn

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Posts posted by MuellerHorn

  1. Tope is as skeptical of Connor as we are, apparently.

    "It's hard to see who's progressing without seeing every practice. On the fan side of things, we only see who the starters are and that pretty much a good indicator of who is showing the most progression - or who is the most conistant in the correct way to block, rather. Some of the biggest probably with oline is pad level, hand placement, stepping underneath yourself, being late off the ball. 95% of the time if it's not a busted play or you just getting your ass beat outright by like a bull rush, it's one of those things. For example, If you see Hayden Connor stepping underneath himself in 2021, and hes doing the same in 2024 and he's a starter, he's either a) knows his assignment and where/when he sometimes to be there or b) there's no one pushing him in terms taking his spot - and thats an indicator of the guys behind him. Ultimately, to notice these things, you have to identifiy who was beat, how they got beat, then why. It's hard to work backwards like this when they game is happening in real time because it's easier to watch the skill guys do cool shit. I still know guys on the Oline so I have a vested interested in what they do more."

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  2. 1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

    Notre Dame doesn’t really have the dudes to compete for it all, but they’re talented. The biggest issue with ND outside of the lack of elite skill talent is that Freeman is proving himself to be a buffoon with his in game decision-making. 

    ND will be a more talented team than ATM. I expect either a comfortable Notre Dame victory or a close match-up that Freeman fucks up somehow and Elko gets the win.  

    I surmise your alternatives are spot on. My bet is it's a rather low scoring game, a la OSU @ ND last season. ND should have a solid, well-coached defense. I don't think A&M's new offense will be primed to match up well. The wild card is ND's offense against Elko's defense. 

  3. 7 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

    It gives him three months to get used to living on surface of the sun before season starts. 
     

    That dude is in for one hell of a weather adjustment 

    He’s from Fontana, CA, so he’s used to hot weather in the summer. However, this will still be a different type of summer hot. You’re right, though. It’ll be extreme compared to Corvallis. 

  4. 4 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

    Is TCU going to make the tournament? Losing record in the Big 12 after being a preseason top 5 team.

    Which is funny, because they're (39) currently one spot ahead of Texas (40) in the RPI. Damn all those Q4 losses

  5. 1 hour ago, definitely not derka said:

     

    I.e., the value of what in many other years is the 19th overall pick?

    It'll be interesting to see in five years where this draft class actually ranks since, say, 2000. I know, right now, it's looked at as holistically deficient.

  6. X-posting myself from the game thread:

    IP by season.

    Ace:

    2023: 26.1

    2024: 54.2

    Max:

    2023: 8.2

    2024: 64.0

    That's a large difference for Ace (especially pitching through a nagging injury) and a massive increase for Max. Texas is in the postseason regardless of what happens at this point; and has no shot to host. So, it makes sense for Pierce to give Ace a "rest", limit Max, and see if Hurley can work his way back as a realistic starting option for the postseason.

    For Texas to do anything positive in the NCAA Tournament, pitching must step the fuck up. Hold onto your butts, friends.

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  7. 37 minutes ago, .45s said:

    According to the UT stats page LBJ's season ERA is now 6.03 and his conference ERA is 8.58.  In conference, teams are batting .327 against him and his WHIP is over 2. In his last 3 starts he has only made it through a total of 11.1 innings and has given up 19 hits, 13 earned runs, 7 walks, and 3 homeruns.  That does not inspire confidence.

     

    Is Ace hurt?  He has not been lights out either but has done a lot better than LBJ.

     

    4 minutes ago, Horny Bull said:

     

    IP by season.

    Ace:

    2023: 26.1

    2024: 54.2

    Max:

    2023: 8.2

    2024: 64.0

    That's a large difference for Ace (especially pitching through a nagging injury) and a massive increase for Max. Texas is in the postseason regardless of what happens at this point; and has no shot to host. So, it makes sense for Pierce to give Ace a "rest", limit Max, and see if Hurley can work his way back as a realistic starting option for the postseason.

    For Texas to do anything positive in the NCAA Tournament, pitching must step the fuck up. Hold onto your butts, friends.

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  8. 2 hours ago, HookEm said:

    I'm really hoping that we can sign JT Toppin. Which is a better pair of bigs in a smaller closing lineup:

    2024

    • Dillon Mitchell - 6'8, 205 - 9.6 PTS, 7.5 TRB, 1.0 STL, 0.9 BLK, 58.5 FG%, 0.0 3P%, 59.8 FT%, 1.7 PF
    • Dylan Disu ---- 6'9, 225 - 15.5 PTS, 5.0 TRB, 1.1 STL, 0.9 BLK, 46.5 FG%, 45.1 3P%, 81.2 FT%, 3.4 PF

    2025

    • Jayson Kent - 6'8, 205 - 13.5 PTS, 8.1 TRB, 0.7 STL, 0.5 BLK, 63.9 FG%, 36.6 3P%, 83.7 FT%, 2.6 PF
    • JT Toppin ---- 6'9, 210 - 12.4 PTS, 9.1 TRB, 1.1 STL, 1.9 BLK, 65.5 FG%, 34.4 3P%, 56.5 FG%, 2.6 PF

    Even though Disu was 1st Team All-Big 12, the team wasn't constructed very well to take advantage of his strengths and minimize his weaknesses.  We tended to get abused by more physical teams, especially on the glass.  Disu was also constantly in foul trouble, which took him out of the game at critical moments. 

    Kent and Toppin are a much better rebounding duo.  They can also BOTH knock down shots from outside the paint, so it should help spacing. 

    We have to sign Toppin. Like... REALLY have to sign this guy.

    I agree with the point of your post. However, while Toppin is very good, he measured in at 6'7 flat without shoes at the NBA combine (with over a 7'0 wingspan). Regardless, Toppin would be massive addition. We still need bigs - hopefully the UCLA transfer. Buyuktuncel is listed at 6'9, but no idea if that's a true measurement. Although, he's still very raw, and I'm not sure how much production we could expect.

  9. 4 hours ago, Pancho said:

    Back to Maui for 2025

     

     

    1 hour ago, cafe society said:

    Other than Maui, has anyone seen our non-conference slate?

    That’s for 2025. We don’t go to Maui this year. 

  10. 30 minutes ago, chase25 said:

    It often doesn’t matter. Having to worry about playing one less game and getting an opportunity to rest some of the arms that have carried this team would be a win/win

    Sweep Kansas and it probably won’t matter. 

    But as @WBT pointed out, I bet they send Texas to Arky or Aggy regardless. 

  11. I butchered point 6 trying to edit before the window closed:

    6. Predicted RPI for Texas is 40th (35-20, 20-10). This means it thinks we sweep KU. However, all the above applies. It's likely that Texas will be viewed as a team somewhere in the 17-24 range, which would help us miss a top-8 seed. Even if this is not the case, maybe we get a favorable matchup.

    Caveats:

    1. A bad collapse against KU and then in the conference tourney.

    2. The NCAA's potential insatiable desire (fuckery afoot) to send Texas to College Station or Fayetteville regardless of any metrics.

  12. 1 hour ago, BigOrange1 said:

    i'd think with a series win over ku and a win or two in arlington we'd have done more than enough to be a 2 seed in a favorable regional (ie, not one of the top 8 national seeds).

    Agreed. Here are some reasons:

    1. There a few teams ranked ahead of Texas in the RPI that may not even make the tourney; there are even more that won't secure a higher/more advantageous seed/draw based on the totality of their résumé.
    2. Texas' (current) 12 Q1 wins are tied for third-most in the country, behind Kentucky and Tennessee. While the Q4 losses will keep Texas from hosting, the Q1 wins should help with the draw. These Q1 wins will help Texas' KPI rating, while the Q4 losses will hurt it a lot in comparison to other P5 teams. This is the wildcard here. Mid-majors generally have lower KPIs than RPIs, so Texas' Q1 wins should help here still. 
    3. Texas' conference and non-con SOS are currently top-30. Many similar RPI teams have much worse rankings here. 
    4. Texas is likely to finish third or fourth in the third-best RPI conference. If third, OU and OSU are likely hosts.
    5. Texas has played much better to end the regualr season against good competition. While I know this isn't supposed to affect seeding, I still think it does to an extent.
    6. Predicted RPI for Texas is 40th (35-20, 20-10). This means it thinks we sweep KU. However, all the above applies. It's liekly that Texas will be viewed as a team somewhere in the 17-24, which would help us miss at top-8 seed.

    RPI: https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/rpi-live

    Conference Standings & RPI: https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/conference/Big-12

    Conference Comparison: https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/rpi-conference

    Predicted RPI: https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/rpi-predict

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