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Archer

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Posts posted by Archer

  1. On 6/26/2020 at 7:42 AM, Al_4_ISU said:

    Kyle Nix's album is out today.  It's really solid.  The playing and production are stellar.  He's obviously not at Felker's level as a songwriter (in my opinion almost no one is), but there are some damn good tunes in there.  "Manifesto", "Sweet Delta Rose", "Blue Eyes", "Graves", and "Shelby 65" are probably my favorites.  I love all the instrumental transitions as well.  It's definitely put together as an album, instead of a collection of songs.  Perhaps more so than any of the Turnpike albums were.

    It’s on Amazon Music Unlimited if anyone subscribes. I added it this morning after seeing this post. 

  2. On 6/8/2020 at 6:25 AM, Okie State said:
    On 6/8/2020 at 6:14 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:
    Im with you in that I shook my head at seeing how long term employees could be treated for really doing nothing other than (probably) having a high salary. The one criticism I have of those employees is that they must have been blind to seeing what was a strong possibility. Big Oil almost always pay well and has great retirement benefits. Employees should not squander those opportunities with a plan to catch up financially closer to 65. Be prepared to leave at 55, and you hang on past 55 that’s just a bonus.

    Read more  

    That's what I'm doing. I told my wife we're saving all we can now because we don't know how long it will last and I don't know where else I could go and get the same benefits or better.

    Absolutely this. 
     

    We are saving and investing to get some secondary income for when this ends I only need to replace 50% of my income not 100%. 

  3. 12 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

    A gigaton of you work directly in or around oil.  What's happening in your neck of the woods?  Friends brothers mothers neighbors getting shit canned?

    I'm seeing colleagues and acquaintances and 2nd and 3rd order networked people dropping out of employment every single day.  I didnt live through the 80s market, but this is an exodus that seems a magnitude worse than '08.  This time it really seems irreversible in terms of the culture of the high flying days

    My LinkedIn has been a bloodbath, lots of tenured people saying they have been let go. 
     

    My wife is considering voluntarily leaving the industry to diversify our income streams. Hasn’t decided but seems to be leaning that way. Would be nice if it wasn’t the worst job market since the ‘30s. 

  4. 1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

    Earnings calls for next week:

    Monday

    CLR (time not supplied)
    KDP amc
    FFIV amc
    NOV amc
    OII (time not supplied)

     

    Tuesday

    MMM bmo
    GOOGL amc
    LUV bmo
    AMD amc
    MRK bmo
    F ???
    SBUX amc
    CAT bmo

     

    Wednesday

    ADM amc
    AZZ bmo (no idea who they are, but that ticker tho)
    YUM bmo
    BA bmo
    GE bmo
    RCL bmo
    CVS bmo
     

    Thursday

    FLWS bmo (more dead people, more flowers?)
    AMZN amc
    AAL bmo
    AAPL amc
    UAL amc
    DNKN bmo
    BZH amc
    TAP bmo
    WDC amc
     

    Friday

    ABBV bmo
    XOM bmo
    CL bmo
    CLX bmo
    CVX bmo
     

    Overall pretty interesting week.  I think we get a better feel for whether this last month run up is smoke and mirrors or the real thing between Wednesday and Thursday.  If there is a big "sell the news" after AMZN, AAPL report or maybe we get a "meh, it's priced in" after UAL and AAL shit the bed.

    I haven't read up on many earnings calls, but the few I have it seems management is not providing any guidance at all for the rest of 2020.  So basically the market appears to be working off the old numbers because why not?

    I took small nibbles on several on those list today so I am sure they will crash during earnings next week. 

  5. 2 hours ago, Jkwellborn said:

    Nothing wrong with Sig. One of my buddies used to collect them. He shot the shit out of them. The mosquitos were picky about ammo. Was the 250 the one that had the drop issue?

    That was the 320

    • Like 1
  6. 2 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

     


    Shutting in a well temporarily can damage it, with production never getting back to the pre-shifting levels.

     

     Very dependent on the rock, I’ve seen some that will pop right back on trend and others that are permanently damaged. 
     

    Ive heard some discussion that if people don’t want to DUC wells of completing them flowing back the load to get to res conditions and then SI. 

  7. 16 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

    I believe you’re a small producer. I don’t think you’d be impacted in the slightest, except the price might rise a bit. This is to avoid disorder. Struggling large companies (Marathon, EnCana) might sell whatever they can to generate enough cash flow to hang on. 

    I think this is much ado about nothing for the most part. Companies are gonna curtail anyway, mostly, because wellhead prices will remain so low for a multi-month period. However low they’ll be in May, I can’t see em getting much better in June. I honestly wonder when it will turn around. 

    Edit to conclude I don’t know how I feel about prorations - so long as they’re temporary.

    I’m actually a worker bee cog in the wheel, at one point I had dreams of a small fleet of stripper wells but not sure how feasible that is anymore.  I do have several good buddies that are small operators and OBO companies so I get to see their trials and tribulations.  
     

    My Pioneer anger goes back a few months before their latest proration pleas. 
     

     

  8. 14 minutes ago, Mighty fine said:

    I'm tracking with you on that. And yeah, the development density is critical recycle operations to be feasible economically. Regulatory headwinds still pose a challenge to recycle in some areas; funny enough, I don't believe University Lands allowed large scale produced water recycle/ reuse on their leases until 2017 or 2018.
     

    Article on RRC recycling in Marcellus. I remembered seeing it in a feed a while back and dug it up. They claim to have been using recycling for a decade but are still having to supplement with fresh. Specifically point out the differences in TX and PA SWDs

    https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/early-adoption-water-recycling-186064

     

    • Like 1
  9. 12 minutes ago, Mighty fine said:

    But at what percentage within their operation?

    Upstream E&P life cycle water management has really grown in the last decade; the produced water managment subsection has really taken off since 2013-2014 or so. The stuff that PXD, DVN, SWN, etc, have been doing on the water side is pretty damn cool and innovative. But let's not pretend that every major player isn't poking new water wells to support growing ops, either.

    That’s a fair question, what I am seeing is nearly 100% is using produced water, but I can admit that I may have some blinders on. 
     

    I’ve been in a couple data rooms in the past year and even the PE backed sellers are designing their infrastructure and putting in recycle pits to enable produced water reuse. In full transparency they were using water wells to prove their acreage but they weren’t and probably won’t be to a development level that supports actually reusing water. They are using it as a carot for the buyers who do care about it. 

  10. 22 minutes ago, Mighty fine said:

    He may have been referring to the quantities of relatively fresh water being consumed as opposed to water quality/ pollution potential

    Almost every major player is reusing produced water for fracs either 100% produced or blended with some fresh water. It’s a green/green solution 

  11. 1 hour ago, sunset87 said:

    I would think the percentage of production that is profitable at $20 to $25/bbl can't be too high. 

    It depends on how you look at it, by well count you're correct that most wells are not going to be profitable at $20. On a production basis I bet a lot more is profitable than thought with the decline rates of the big shale rates and how much they produce early time. 
     

    At $20 40%+ of my wells are losing but 98% of my production is profitable. Mix of strippers and horizontals 

  12. 1 hour ago, Hate said:

    Why wouldn't we fill it while prices are unbelievably low.  Seems stupid.

    Politics. Gotta stick it to big oil...
     

    Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a letter to senators Wednesday Democrats had eliminated from the legislation a, “$3 billion bailout for big oil.”

  13. 22 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

    But can they even get the crude out of the basin?  

    Simple question but how good are their oil purchasing/transport contracts? Is it on pipe or truck? I see a lot more trucking shut down with pipes still flowing. That could change as more production has to come off line.

     

    A buddy just had all of his oil purchasing contracts canceled so his crude isn’t moving.  We have a X bbl purchase commitment with one of our pipelines so we’re still flowing, of course they could claim Force Majeure and cancel all of the commitments tomorrow. 

  14. 1 hour ago, Dr. Beeper said:

    Y’all help me understand something I should know the answer to - if a company has WTI hedges and a Mid-Cush basis swap of +1, but they have physical difficulty getting their volumes out of the Permian, what do they do?

    On one hand this is a basic question but on the other it’s multi-faceted. In this particular instance, they have 4 wells recently (mostly) drilled and a completion decision will come later in May when prices become more apparent. It’d make a lot of sense in a vacuum to NOT complete these wells, as curtailment could cause shut-ins and as you can guess these are large hz wells where you can’t predict how they’ll come back on when they do. However, in this instance they have a very high NRI and these wells are economic at a much lower price than anyone would think. 

    I think I’m tracking the question but if not sorry. 
     

    I was recently informed we do not have to actually produce the volumes we have hedged to receive the hedged amounts. I’ve never gotten deep into hedges so this was news to me. 
     

    If their hedges are set up the same way they could DUC the wells and still receive the net benefit of the hedges. 
     

    Unfortunately that is about all I know on the topic 

  15. 1 hour ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

    The barrel costs more than the oil. The oil is just the cheapest thing to put in the barrel to keep anybody from stealing your valuable barrel.

    I told my wife I wasn’t drinking today, you assholes keep making jokes like this and I’m going to have to renege on my word. 

    • Haha 1
  16. 32 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

    Not much right now.  Lol.   And that was more of a “that would be our shit ass  luck” type of comment.  

    Our shit ass luck is gas goes to $4.00 over the summer, the public hates Trump even more because of gas prices, Biden has a medical issue and is replaced by Bernie, Bernie wins in a landslide and thinks it’s a referendum on him and the first thing he does is ban fracing and drilling on Fed land just as the industry starts to recover. That would be our luck. 
     

    Not to get too CR 

  17. 11 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

    We live off my salary, and all bonus/stock/side hustle goes to tax, life insurance, trips, etc. My goal is to grow the side hustle larger than everything else. I’m gonna do it now. 

    We are fairly similar but don’t use quite my full salary. Major downer is not only O&G in the dumpster but I have a hospitality side hustle investment that could very well go tits up too with all of the SiP orders.  

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