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Zonahorn

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Zonahorn

  1. On 1/22/2024 at 11:51 AM, Js1 said:

    I guess it's been a while to discuss the state of the Senate

    • 7 retirements - Laphonza Butler (CA), Tom Carper (DE), Mike Braun (IN), Ben Cardin (MD), Debbie Stabenow (MI), Mitt Romney (UT), Joe Manchin (WV)
    • Rumored retirements - Bernie Sanders (VT) (still deciding)
    • Safe D seats - CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MN, NJ*, NM, NY, RI, VT*, VA, WA
    • Safe R seats - IN, MS, MO, NE (both seats), ND, TN, UT, WY
    • Lean/likely D seats - ME*, MI, NV, PA, WI
    • Lean/likely R seats - FL, TX, WV
    • Tossups - OH, MT

    *NJ - Menendez is absolutely going to lose a primary, but whoever wins that is going to win the election
    *VT - Safe D even if Bernie (I) retires
    *ME - Angus King (I) running for re-election

    The Republicans will win WV easily.  No contest.

    They are currently trying to lose OH and Montana as best they can.  Bernie Moreno is the weakest GOP candidate in OH and he got the Trump endorsement.  Rosendale is not the Senate GOP's pick for the race and is likely going to jump in and has had some good sized leads in primary polling.  He'd probably get a Trump endorsement too. 

    Michigan, Nevada, PA, Wisconsin - what a bunch of crap they are trying to run.  I'm not worried about these seats.

    FL, TX - I know Cruz's campaign seems to have some "alarm" about polling/trends, but I don't see either Allred or Gutierrez finishing within 5 points of Cruz in a presidential race.  Florida is Florida - Scott has never won a statewide race there by more than 1.15 (2010 governor 48.87-47.72; 2014 governor 48.14-47.07; 2018 senate 50.06-49.93). 

    Can't wait to make Kari Lake lose again

    • Hook 'Em 3
    • Drool 1
  2. 45 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

    Wow.  Sinema just getting killed.

    Matches her approval rating

     

    20 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

    Would love to know the demographics of that 17% that would consider voting for her. Who the hell does she appeal to? I figured most of her fans would lean D, but that poll, if accurate and reasonable, shows about a near even split in people who would otherwise vote R/D. 

    Big-brained, self-stylized moderates 

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