
sushihorn
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Posts posted by sushihorn
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I did an analysis of the top 15 counties and their daily turnout relative to 2016. On the Monday, the mean of the 15 turnout numbers was 97.9% of the comp day (Mon 10/24/16) turnout in a presidential year. That was truly extraordinary for a mid-term. Since then the relative turnout has fallen steadily. 94.02% on Tue, 82.31% on Wed and 82.00% Thur. Those are still impressive numbers.
Counties with the highest cumulative turnout relative to 2016 as of Thursday were Nueces (102.31%), Denton (94.98), El Paso (94.73), Dallas (93.37), Fort Bend (92.15) and Williamson (91.50). Galveston, Cameron and Collin were all in the 90% range and above the mean.
Worst relative turnout was Hidalgo at 77.88% of 2016. Harris at 80.61 and Bexar as 83.71 are also not showing well. Tarrant, Travis and Denton are all right around 88% of 2016. A good showing by Texas voters so far. Trend lines are heading lower after that big surge the first 2 days.
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31 minutes ago, Lhorn said:
Boycott in 3...2...1
How would they square this with SECSECSEC mentality.
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On 10/25/2018 at 3:15 PM, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:
I've tried to wrestle in my brain for using El Paso as a proxy for GOTV efforts in general. The big increase in virtually any other county seems to be impossible to tell how much is attributable to each candidate at this point. But with El Paso you can be virtually certain.
You have one county where there is the largest number of people that would be sitting at home but for Beto's presence in the race. And that is the largest county of increase. Does that correlate to the more divided counties? In, say, Harris, fewer percentage of people would be default Beto voters, so you see a smaller overall increase but just as much Beto increase, so the numbers look like the above. I.e., Beto is killing it in GOTV?
There are holes there but I feel like there is some information you could extract from the huge El Paso jump.
You have 2 major currents in El Paso. One is the local boy effect and the other is GOTV. Not sure how you would separate one from the other. I guess you could use other heavily D counties with a large GOTV presence to control for hometown kid done good.
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26 minutes ago, horncyclist said:
How are they determining no party affiliation?
Here's a rundown on their methodology.
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9 hours ago, Js1 said:
Tribune poll had Ted up 6 and Abbot up way more on Loopy. Ted sucks
Cruz by 6 in a GOP +6 sample (48-42) sounds about right and it's very similar to the registered voter pool. But that's not who is showing up to vote early. Target Smart has TX turnout at 991k R, 689k D, 119k unknown or 55-38 R skewed. The UT-Trib sample also has 17% slice of 18-29 year olds - reasonable in a presidential year but unrealistic in a mid-term. The last 2 such elections saw that demo providing 13% of the total vote in 2014 and 12% in 2010.
You can find the internals on the poll here:
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1 hour ago, Longhorn94 said:
Bottom line, we are going to get the country we deserve this election.
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
H.L. Mencken-
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NJ is one of the few states where Democrats are actually outperforming statewide. Basically 15% of the D-affiliated voters who have already cast a ballot would have to support Hugin as well as independents breaking his way for Menendez to lose. Possible but it seems like a very tall order.
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On 10/24/2018 at 5:58 PM, Gaffords said:
So Urban to aggy in a couple? Sounds about right. Could work...
It wouldn't take long for him to figure out (in collie town) his heart's just not into it. Costing aggy another 10's of millions and 3-4 years of "finding the last peices".
Could aggy afford Urban after buying out Jimbo and Rumlin?
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Also 2014 featured a gubernatorial election at the top of the ballot where the Republican won 71% to 24%. I think it would be kinda crazy to model a tight 2018 senate race on that outcome. The structure of the close 2018 race looks more like the 2016 election than the 2014 election in Nevada. If you want to do an analysis comparing it to 2014, please feel free. Until then I will work with the closest comp I've got. I'm just not sure you can draw useful conclusions from comparing a GOP wave election to this year.
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1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:
Dude, your NV numbers are all over the place and wrong. Jon Ralston’s latest blog post just went up. Looking like it’s going to be nip and tuck in NV.
Also, never compare midterms and presidential years . It’s apples and oranges.
Did you not notice that I gave turnout numbers for BOTH 2014 and 2016?
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Last night Craig Way asked TH about his game rituals and superstitions. Herman said he wasn't a superstitious person but he did have some rituals. Then said they were more like neuroses and OCD behavior. It's kinda funny that Herman sees himself that way.
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23 minutes ago, Js1 said:
That's a lot of doom and gloom from like 5-7 days of early voting.
In the last mid-term FL cast less than 6 million ballots. In the presidential there were 9.4 million votes. 2.04 million have voted so far this cycle. That is 22% of the 2016 electorate and 35% of the 2014 electorate. 263k have voted in Nevada. That compares to 1,125k in 2016 and 547k in 2014. Those numbers are big enough to be meaningful.
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Weakness by a single corrupt incumbent doesn't mean much by itself. But it's part of a larger pattern. The DCCC is putting money back into races they thought they'd sewed up months ago like VA-10. Individual Senate races where there is high-frequency polling showing a trend to the Republicans in many cases: NV, AZ, MO, TX and TN in particular. The Democrats are sending the biggest gun, the former president to campaign in places like Detroit and Milwaukee. That tells me they are very concerned about the statewide races in those states - presumably the Senate contests. Behavior of the players at the table means a lot more to me than any opinion survey.
Lastly the actual early votes are trending very strongly against the Democrats. In 2016, they won the EV of NV by building an 82k vote margin in Clark Co (Vegas). Not happening this time. In 2016 at this point D-affiliated voters had an 18k vote margin over R-affiliated statewide. This year that advantage is 3,243 votes 5 days into early voting. In TN there is massive turnout in the eastern part of the state. Knox Co is 4% below 2016 at the same point. Shelby Co is home to Memphis, the sole Democrat stronghold in the state and 20% below 2016 turnout. Keep in mind that with 2016 turnout numbers, Trump won TN by 25 points. With the current skew, Bredesen has to win all independents and 35% of Republicans to capture the senate seat.
In FL, combined early voting shows almost 60k advantage for R over D-affiliated voters. That's without results from two dozen counties, largely in the Panhandle. Close elections in FL have usually featured Republicans voting early by mail, more than offset by Dems voting early in person. Then Reps turning out more heavily on election day to produce the tight races. This year, the mail-in votes has gone as per usual but the in-person early vote is tied - despite being skewed to S and C FL by the hurricane. I expect the final walk-in early vote to also skew GOP this year once those counties start voting (today) and reporting. Even without that, the trends put the Democrats 5-6 points behind their pace from 2016.
When choosing between opinions and actual data, I'll take the data every time. Especially now that the opinions are drawn from less than 2% of the people that the surveyors attempt to contact.
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33 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:
Ahh 5 of those seasons were not 10 win seasons also 4 seasons with 3 plus losses........ I understand different times but, yea.. I was talking total wins wise
Do you remember how many games were played in a season in the 1960s vs the 1990s and 2000s?
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Good road win. Sweep, no drama, took care of business.
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Micaya's 3rd service error tonight. The rest of the team is doing fine with 2 errors.
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21-16 Texas. TO ISU.
Only 5 blocks so far for the Horns but ISU seems a bit intimidated so their hitting errors are piling up.
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5 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:
Fuck Mack Brown. He’s ruined IMO his legacy long before this with his petulant, pouty antics as he crashed program into ground.
Being petulant is one thing. Undermining his successors and Texas Football is something else entirely.
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22 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:
Probably not the comparison you want to use. The Republicans won 248 House seats in 2014.
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The setup is also nice to fool zone defenders watching the QBs eyes. If you run the dig or in route straight at the safety, that is the defender the QB reads to make sure the route is holding him. The defense will be looking for an intermediate route at the hash marks, not deep over the middle until he makes his secondary read to ensure the post is open.
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5 minutes ago, SHOOTER12 said:
Sources? quotes? links? por' favor?
This is mostly the Sooner spin but if you just read for factual content it's clearly something bad happened.
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41 minutes ago, ztejas said:
I agree and I don't know why he thinks OU is any less likely to fuck it up down the stretch.
Considering the locker room meltdown reports, they're a lot more likely to fall apart than Texas. Contrast that with the genuine love and respect you can see in the Longhorn locker room.
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2 minutes ago, ztejas said:
Also, not really sure what is worth getting mad about here. Mack said we aren't there yet where we can just show up and win and I agree with him.
True but the same thing can be said for 4 of the 5 teams still ranked ahead of Texas.
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3 minutes ago, NowThis said:
Texas has 28 million people, only about half live in the big cities and a bunch of them are Rs. Suburbs, X burbs and small towns are redder as you go away from the cities. An even distribution of 4x turnout means the Rs stay, no?
The early turnout is heavy for a midterm election. It is still below a presidential election on a statewide basis. With that in mind, I expect the electorate to look 70% like 2016 and 30% like 2014. For example, Tennessee started early voting in person a week ago on 10/18. As of Monday it was breaking 63% Republican to 30% Democrat. In 2016 President Trump won TN 61-35. In 2014 the GOP governor won 70-23. So far 2018 is between those results but closer to 2016.
Early Voting 2018 thread of doom
in Cloak Room
Posted
Is there some local race that has people so fired up in Corpus? Nueces is the only county still above comp 2016 turnout levels.