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staboner

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Posts posted by staboner

  1. 7 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


    Good post.
    It’s about figuring out the balance: how much weight do you give objective measures (how many tanks you have) vs subjective measures (how well you know how to use tanks).
    Think of it this way: it’s why many of the greatest quarterbacks aren’t necessarily great specimens on paper. Back in the day, I thought Ryan Leaf would be a better draft pick than Peyton Manning because of the objective physical tools. But it turns out that what each guy’s head could do (or not do) was way more determinative of their success.
    Russia started this war with a lot of strong pieces in strong positions on their side of the chess board, compared to Ukraine’s fewer and weaker pieces. If both chess players were is similar skill, Russia wins in a few weeks. Turns out that in this metaphor, Russia sucked at chess, and wasted multiple capital pieces in stupid attacks on an opponent with limited prices…but great skill, aptitude, and desire.
    The concern is that at some level, no amount of skill differential can make up for the chess piece differential. If you give me a fully loaded side of the board, and give Kasparov a King and two pawns…I’m gonna beat him, even though he’s 1,000x the player that I am. The real question is, where is that line. If you give him a Bishop and a Knight as well, then does he beat me, the inferior player with all the pieces? Maybe (I mean, he’s Kasparov, and I’m pretty rusty). It’s really difficult to game that out in the real world, with armies and gear and ammo and weather and logistics and strategies and small squad tactics etc.
    But I believe in Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. I believe that this is the most important conflict in the past 80 years. I believe that helping Ukraine win is the most important foreign policy task we’ve had in my lifetime.

     

    7 hours ago, BamaATL said:

    Just to add to that a bit as it applies to this situation.  At the beginning of all this, if I remember correctly it was only the DIA the predicted that the Ukrainians would offer fierce resistance to an invasion.  14 out 15 other intel agencies all predicted a quick fall Kyiv or worse.  So how did everyone get this so wrong?  In my opinion, its over reliance on analytics.  Sure, you can quantify how many tanks somehow has, the number of troops, artillery, etc.  What you can't quantify is the human abstract.  Analytics told our intel people that there was no chance for the Ukrainians, so don't send heavier weapons, etc.   What analytics can't figure is a quantity for poor Russian leadership, the Ukrainian will for freedom and their desire to fight for it.  

    Analytics has its place, and it is valuable, but over reliance on it is dangerous, short sighted, and ultimately wrong.  This is the conundrum for all strategic planners globally (and not just war), it's valuable insight, but to what level?

    good points. My 2 cents. analytics and really just predicting the future is good within BAU. When we get outside that we see what we feel is an irrational actor (Putin invading Ukraine for example), but as @NAVY also points out in his post, maybe Putin/Russia was just bad data. Just perspective. If we could have factored in "out-dated soviet warmongering view, currently ill, with lots of small dick energy, with corrupt, never used army of 20+ years" more aptly then maybe we would have accurately predicted this shitshow. 

    This war is so good for everyone else not named Ivan or wtf Ukrainians name themselves. The models will get updated and our intel priorities will be revisited, as @BamaATL shows us it was as inadequate as the Russian army.

    Analytics is great in a more controlled environment like baseball. Too much BS in the real world. I'd even say football is closer to war than baseball, and thus analytics a bit less useful. I love @atomheartbevo putting Zeihan on there on the reg. His views are great, but they also lack the human element. His American boner is clear, and easy to understand. However, IMO his lack of caring or even acknowledging the people aspect renders his timelines and predictions mostly academic. America does indeed have all the resources, geography, etc to be OP for sure, but lots of Americans certainly aren't healthy, and the goals and priorities of the society are somewhat not in the right direction, but thats my judgement of course. 

    huh, sounds alot like a certain football team, with all the resources, but a pussy ass culture that can't seem to ah sorry, wrong meeting. Is this? wait.

    Hope you homies are well. Thanks for the updates as always, and great conversations. Get fucked putin

    • Hook 'Em 4
  2. 9 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

    Philly's line is letting their nuts hang. That scoop & score is the difference between a 28-7 game and a one td lead right now.

    yep. reminds me of the NY football giants on brady. a dominant dline is gold jerry

    opps and there is mahomes ankle

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