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Mikey4

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by Mikey4

  1. Here's my concern. This is 2 years IN A ROW that aggy has pulled someone from San Antonio. It sounds like Texas is now shut out of San Antonio for good. My question is whether we can reasonably expect to do any more recruiting in Texas? Maybe just focus on 2* recruits that aren't good enough for the SEC? Or do we just need to shut down recruiting in Texas from now on and just recruit out of state?

    • Like 2
    • Haha 1
  2. Between Shep and Bru, I guess you can shitpost things into existence
    This coup has required high levels of shitposting, meming, circle jerking, and most importantly, the intense focusness of the $9.95 echo chamber. We pulled out all the stones and left no stop unturned.
    • Like 3
  3. Not an upset.  Total domination.  Shut down the top ground attack in the SECSEC to the tune of 72 yards - half what Bama gave up and 30% of UGs's average.  Total offense was 160 yds through 3 quarters.  Of course aggy is crapping their pants and praying LSU can pull off the upset in Austin this fall.
    Yeah yeah yeah, but why would anyone want to play for Texas???1!
  4. From LonghornFrenzy, a deep dive by a TexAgs poster into why the stupid sips were overrated. I think [mention=1821]Huckleberry[/mention] will enjoy this one.
     

    Texas A&M and Texas Season Recap (Efficiency Matrix)
    dryfly406 5:37p
    So.... work has been very slow lately, and I have been filling my recent days up with extracurricular activities (mainly TexAgs, twitter, and YouTube). In doing so, I have seen many Horn's fans gloating about their bull s*** rise in the recruiting rankings, their record versus ours, claiming that they would beat us head to head, and proclaiming the SEC to be overrated. I decided to do a deep dive into the analytics of their unsubstantiated claims since I have so much ample free time at work currently. I have created 3 tabs in excel that compare and contrast data analytics that range from: 1) The SEC vs Big 12's offensive and defensive prowess of each conference 2) A&M vs Texas' statistical achievements versus their competition 3) Measuring the offensive and defensive efficiency of Texas A&M and Texas against their calendar opponents this past year. Below I took screenshots of each chart that further illustrates my points.


    1) These 2 screenshot's purpose is to demonstrate that the Big 12 offenses are overrated, SEC defenses are the real deal, and Big 12 plays horrific defense.

    Note that on average SEC teams pass the ball for 238 yards a game which ranks on average at 62 out of the 129 fbs teams, while Big 12 teams pass the ball for 269 yards a game which indicates that on average their teams rank 43rd out of the 129 fbs teams. The knee jerk reaction would be to say that the Big 12 offenses are far superior at airing the ball out than the SEC teams. That's not the case when you analyze how historically terrible the Big 12 secondaries are... On average, a Big 12 pass defense ranked 96th out of the 129 teams in giving up 254 pass yards a game. Meanwhile, the SEC gave up 218 yards through the air for 57th nationally. Clearly, the Big 12 passing numbers are inflated because of all time terrible defenses and not revolutionary offenses.

    It's no secret that the SEC dominates at the line of scrimmage, so it shouldn't surprise anyone that the SEC leads in rushing yards a game and gives up less rushing yards a game despite elite running games week in and week out.

    The SEC is just 2 spots below the Big 12 in total offense on average despite SEC defenses ranking in the top 50 nationally on average while Big 12 defenses are at 77th on average out of the 129 teams.

    Lastly, SEC offenses are more efficient than Big 12 offenses because they convert their drives into more points. The SEC on average ranks among the top 50 in scoring offense while the Big 12 ranks outside at 55. Additionally, SEC defenses are limiting their opponents to minimal points with an average top 45 defense in the nation, while the Big 12 ranks at 70th in the nation in scoring defense.

    Here's where the fun begin... let's talk A&M vs Texas. You will see that I highlighted both schools in each table to indicate their rank among the nation. Texas A&M ranks above Texas in every major statistical category I have underscored except for pass yards. (I wonder if Big 12 secondaries has anything to do with Corky having more passing yards than Kellen )

    https://imgur.com/a/cz9vyrr

    https://imgur.com/a/XbcbQ6h

    2) Let's get into whether Texas actually is better than A&M (Spoiler: their not)


    The first screenshot focuses on passing and rushing defense relative to their competition. You will see that both schools were similar in that they were weak against the pass and strong against the run. However, Texas A&M was better against the pass and the run. But but I was told by the t-sip twitter warriors that Texass was DBU and that they had like 7 five star DB's on their roster! It must be because the Big 12 offenses passing attacks are so elite..? Well actually no, Texas A&M faced better pass offenses than Texas did and faired better against those opponents than Texas did.

    "Well when you incorporate the threat of runn/pass in the playbooks, the Big 12 has a much more sophisticated offensive philosophy." Howcome the stats don't agree with that premise? Texas's opponents averaged 9 yards more on offense (playing OU twice helps), but Texas A&M gave up about 45 yards less than sippy did defensively this year to nearly identical offenses.

    "Okay, maybe you were better overall defensively this year, but Sam Ehlinger is a much better quarterback than Kellen Mond!" Again, that stats say otherwise. Kellen Mond faced on average a top 60 pass defense that only allowed 220 yards through the air week in and week out (take out NW State and it's 215 yards and top 55 pass defense). Meanwhile, Corky typically faced passing defenses that ranked at about 80 out of the 129 fbs teams and averaging about 240 pass yards allowed a game. Despite these inherent advantages that Corky enjoys in the Big 12, he only averaged 6 more passing yards a game (probably less when you account for him getting a boo boo and missing some time).

    The chart that portrays the rushing stats doesn't even paint the full picture. Guys like Zach Evans and other running backs would initially scoff at their running statistics and their inability to run effectively against their competition. But, they would be completely turned off when they realize that the quarterback takes the responsibility of many of the rushing responsibilities in a Herman offense which lead to an ineffective rushing attack.

    https://imgur.com/a/fBkY95V

    https://imgur.com/a/cco5tJm

    https://imgur.com/a/Wd46i4I

    https://imgur.com/a/f02A5hj

    3) The Knockout Blow. Let's compare Texas' average opponent rank among passing and rushing offense plus passing and rushing defense and their efficiency in executing among those opponents. We can then compare those numbers to Texas A&M's numbers that result from their level of execution offensively and defensively among their opponents.

    First, you will note that Texas A&M faced a better pass defense, rush defense, total defense, scoring defense, passing offense, total offense, and scoring offense as it pertains to the fbs average rankings. Texas only enjoys a slight edge among the rushing attacks that they faced.

    Next, you will see that Texas A&M executed offensively above average and exceeded expectations at certain statistical categories. A&M passed the ball on average of 14% more yards than each opponent typically allows, rushed the ball for 45% more yards than their opponent gave up on average, gained total yards of 27% more than their opponents allowed on average, and scored 51% more points than the opponents defense gave up on average. Defensively, A&M gave up .14% more passing yards than their opponents usually gained, stifled their opponents to 54% of the yards they typically gained on the ground, limited the opposing teams to 81% of their average total yards, and allowed just under 80% of the points their opponents typically enjoy.

    The numbers above all look great in relation to your competition outside of A&M's passing defense. Can Texas exceed any of those totals against worse competition? No. Texas passed the ball on average of 8% more yards than each opponent typically allows, rushed the ball at a troubling rate of 7% less yards than their opponent typically gave up, accrued a mediocre 2% increase in total yards in relation to their opponents average yards allowed per game, and scored 10% more points than their opponents defense gave up on average. Defensively, Texas gave up 3% more passing yards than their opponents usually gained through the air, limited opposing rushing attacks to 71% of their normal rushing total, allowed 90% of the total yards their opponent typically enjoyed each game, and additionally allowed just under 80% of the points scored by their opponents on average.

    In summary, Texas A&M performed better amongst tougher competition at a rate of 7% through the air, 52% on the ground, 25% total yards, and 41% points on average. Defensively, A&M performed better at a rate of 3% in passing yards allowed, 17% less rush yards, and 8% less yards. The only statistical category that Sip can hang their hat on is that they gave up 0.25% less points per game in relation to their opponent.

    https://imgur.com/a/dvpNe4u

    So why is the national media portraying Texas as the better team when clearly they aren't? Bias? That's for you to decide.

    I did a quantitative study of the numbers 27 and 25. I learned that 27 is bigger.
    • Like 3
  5. Does anyone have a link to Cosmi's recruiting profile? I'm trying to recall what his star ranking was. 
    I seem to recall somewhere between 2 and 4 (excluding 2 and 4), but I don't recall the precise rating. If people aren't talking about it, then I forget it pretty quickly.
    • Like 1
  6. we see this storyline every year - look at all the freaks we signed!  Guess what, doesn't mean anything without good blocking and schemes of misdirection and creating space. The O production has improved mainly due to Sam and 84/9 with due respect to an improved OL.  But the OL is always the heart of the offense.. would love to see a list of 4 or 5* lineman.
    I thought we did okay against a decent team in the Sugar Bowl.


  7. Typical legal advice is “don’t say a anything to anyone”.   


    Unless you're sitting for a deposition, in which case, apparently, you should demand frequent extended bathroom breaks, during which you only drink water (not pee), and then proceed to wet yourself later in the deposition, requiring lengthy clean-up while you loudly reassure them from the bathroom that you are almost "there".

    Or so I am told.
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