Exactly this. The biggest problem with the ACC is that they really have only 3 brands (4 if you include ND, I don't) with much of a following and a desire to be competitive that are at all attractive, and 2 of the 3 are actively trying to leave the conference. Their TV value is right about the same as the current Big 12, and that's WITH those 3. The second they lose two of them the value craters.
They have 4 more programs that are actively trying to be competitive (NCSU, VT, Pitt, UL) but just don't seem to be all that appealing from a conference expansion standpoint for various reasons, aside from a "break glass in case of emergency" option.
On the other hand there's a metric fuckton of dead weight in that conference that drags it down in a big way.
And that's without me even touching on the arrogance of UNC and UVA here. Those two and Cal/Tree are a perfect damn match in that regard.