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hornhorn

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Posts posted by hornhorn

  1. 7 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

    And that's fine. And some of your last point is probably true, but I don't really care about that. I care about the fact that our politicians, much like yourself and Incredulity, think that "join the military!" and "just drag your whole family to Flint!" are adequate answers for the fact that decades of profiteering have eaten the working classes to the point where all that's left is some cartilage clinging onto the bones, and the fact that it's almost impossible to carve out a middle class lifestyle unless you're highly educated, specialized, or already well off. 

    "Move to Detroit there's plenty of jobs!" and "join the military!". Ok boomer.

    OK, so that the rest of us understand you better what do you consider highly educated and what do you consider to be middle class(as in earnings for a family of 4)? 

  2. 6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

    I didn't say that was the solution for income inequality.  That's an entirely different issue.

    I said that's a solution that's available to a person who finds himself impoverished with few other available opportunities.

    Well, I hate to tell you, but working in the oil fields is a whole lot more dangerous.  Of course, the pay often is a lot better.

    And so what're we left with?  You don't want to impose on the underclass to do anything?  Or at least anything that might benefit the interests of corporations?

    I'm sorry, brother, but I'm not signing up for that revolution.

    . . . and the funny thing is, judging by the white working class's voting record, neither are they.

     

    What he wants for that person is a perfectly safe desk job with a computer that he/she cannot operate crunching numbers he/she cannot calculate.

    Is that too much to ask?????

    • Like 2
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    26 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    You're assuming he's watching something other than the Kardashians, Floribama Shore, and NASCAR, or looking at anything other than porn and Worldstar on the internet.  He's not.  Metaphorically, the library's right down the street, but Cletus don't go there.

    He's busy watching "OW! MY BALLS!"

     

    You're also assuming that if only we taxed Bezos 90% of all his money, and then spent that money into jobs program or something like that Cletus' life is magically going to be better. At some point we have to realize that Cletus cannot be helped. Cletus(a lot by your own admission) is going to be Cletus no matter what. We offer him help with food stamps and WIC or whatever other welfare Cletus can get himself on but that's about it. He isn't a victim of the system but bad to terrible parenting. 

    There have always been Cletuses in Ada, Houston, Baltimore and there always will be. Absolutely no sense in throwing good money after bad. 

  4. 3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

    I went back and looked at my original post, and I think I see where we're crossed up.  It's in my statement "what you think is a win is a loss", which was certainly overly broad and probably not true for a large VIX spike.  Sloppy writing on my part.  I have seen call prices drop with minor movements up in the VIX, though.  

    Fair enough. 

    3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

    If you get a surge in your time frame, you should profit, as long as you pull the trigger.  I wouldn't expect it to be a particularly handsome return, but like I said, for your sake I hope it is.

    This isn't a set trade either. You can manage this trade as you move along unlike derivatives with stocks. You can wait around a month, say Feb 7th and if VIX hasn't spiked to your liking, you can move this trade another couple of months and set the same strike prices for August expiration. You may lose some theta but it isn't going to be much since the likelihood of VIX being lower than 12.56 is low. But you do that knowing that VIX has to spike at some point, its a certainty. And when it does, even in low twenties(which is where the VIX hovered all late July, August and early Sep 2019) you're going to see ridiculous returns. Like, few times your net investment. 

  5. 1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    i can’t imagine how difficult it must be to not even have a high school diploma. When that happens, some try to go with a GED or some pathetic certificate that really means very little.  While that can show some drive, many don’t realize that is the bare minimum.

    It isn't the best situation but about 20% of our jobs are in service industry that require employees badly. They don't care about GED or high school diploma as long as you show up to work on time and sober 4 times out of 5. But not having a high school diploma correlates with decrease in sobriety as well. So....

    • Like 2
  6. 1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

    I'll be rooting for you.  In my experience, the pricing on VIX options didn't change as much in response to surges or drops as one would expect.  That's purely anecdotal evidence which could have had something else baked in . . . I certainly haven't traded them much.

    Well, you can't say that things work exactly opposite of what I said and then say this. 

    I'm offering you actual market prices with real timelines and an end result. When market starts to tank and volatility picks up VIX will go up and although corresponding option prices may not jump like stocks but a 3 percent correction in the market means a massive change in the VIX which results into a change in options pricing. 

    Profit. 

  7. 5 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

    VIX options don't really work that way.  Held to expiry, they do, but in the meantime, what you think should be a win is a loss.

    Uh no they work exactly as I said they do. VIX closed at 12.56 on Friday, a 12 handle is one of the lowest points it has been since early 2019. In the last six months it has been as high as 23. I'm aware that it has hit 11 something as well but this is still pretty low. 

    A contract for 17 call that expire in June 17 2020 is going for 2.55, let's say you buy 100 contracts: 10,000 X 2.55= 25,500. This is what you'll spend. 

    A contract for 17 put that expire on June 17 2020 is going for 2.30, let's say you sold 100 contracts: 10,000 X 2.30= 23,000 This is what you'll receive. 

    Net you spent $2,500. My bet is that VIX will spike up over 20 within the next few months at the very least, I'll remind you when it does and where these bets end up. Oh btw, it doesn't have to hit that high to make money. VIX can go to 15 next Friday and these trades make a great return.

    Why don't we wait until May and see where this ends up. Cool? 

  8. 1 minute ago, washparkhorn said:

    Ensuring money flow to the financial institutions is the major part of the "bailout." I understand you want to limit the scope to one bailout mechanism. But the response was much greater than the appetizer you focus on. There main courses were the meat of the financial rescue for the few Too Big to Fail Institutions.

    And to the greater point, the ability to use trillions to bail out the TBTF institutions - without ensuing massive inflation - demonstrates we, as a nation, can spend trillions to help out those who do not qualify for TBTF status. That is the issue, no?

    That money flow was occurring even before the collapse and has been occurring since. You seem to under appreciate the word trillion. $29 trillion is a huge number, its larger than the US GDP. If that was the size of the bailout the top 100 wealthiest people in the world would all be bankers the poorest of them at a net worth of $250 billion. Two and a half times wealthier than Bezos today. That isn't the case.

    We as a human race have figured out that a static dollar serves no purpose which is why it needs to be repurposed while sitting idly in a bank account somewhere. You're looking at it as a conspiracy against the poor. It isn't.

     

  9. 8 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

    Not so much - but the PR campaign by the financial sector to downplay the numbers has been effective, I suppose, so thank you! 

    "There have been a number of estimates of the total amount of funding provided by the Federal Reserve to bail out the financial system. For example, Bloomberg recently claimed that the cumulative commitment by the Fed (this includes asset purchases plus lending) was $7.77 trillion. As part of the Ford Foundation project “A Research and Policy Dialogue Project on Improving Governance of the Government Safety Net in Financial Crisis,” Nicola Matthews and James Felkerson have undertaken an examination of the data on the Fed’s bailout of the financial system—the most comprehensive investigation of the raw data to date. This working paper is the first in a series that will report the results of this investigation.

    The extraordinary scope and magnitude of the recent financial crisis of 2007–09 required an extraordinary response by the Fed in the fulfillment of its lender-of-last-resort function. The purpose of this paper is to provide a descriptive account of the Fed’s response to the recent financial crisis. It begins with a brief summary of the methodology, then outlines the unconventional facilities and programs aimed at stabilizing the existing financial structure. The paper concludes with a summary of the scope and magnitude of the Fed’s crisis response. The bottom line: a Federal Reserve bailout commitment in excess of $29 trillion."

    Matthews and Felkerson - University of Missouri at KC, 2011 -  $29,000,000,000,000: A Detailed Look at the Fed’s Bailout by Funding Facility and Recipient, http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_698.pdf

     

    Did you read the paper? The amount you're parroting is the cumulative facility(as in repo facility, auction facility, SWAPS, etc.) to make the money move, not the actual bailout. To have an expanding economy, Federal reserves of all countries have to back central banks with cumulative facilities. 

    Actual bailout loans still stand at $245.2 billion which were paid back, with interest.

  10. 10 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

    I look at MMT and similar theories as supporting a buildup of the working and middle classes - a bottom up approach to avoid a financial collapse. We bailed out the banks with trillions - and none of that filtered down. Shouldn't we consider building back up the working and middle classes to keep capitalism working in the US?

    Or do we just let the top .001 pull the plug as they retreat to their citadels and private islands during the troubles bound to come with the current trajectory?

    Trillions? It was $245.2 billion forcibly LOANED to banks to accept toxic assets. Also $245.2 billion isn't trillions. Not to CR it but your Math is Bernie level off. This intentional multiplication of numbers is deceitful. 

    An extremely left Source: https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/

  11. 5 hours ago, Junior Miller said:

    Have to admit I'm not sure how this is working. Is it saying the fed is indirectly purchasing its own issued securities? I'm unclear on how that method would serve to perpetuate this artificial boosting of the markets. 

     

    FED buys securities when it wants to increase the flow of money in the market. It does the opposite when it wants to reduce the flow of money. 

    By buying this newly created treasury(as debt) from a Bank what it does is it allows that Bank to loan a partial sum(because some of it has to be held to maintain the capital reserves) of those treasuries to lend to other banks at Fed funds rate. This allows those other banks to lend that money to entrepreneurs, companies etc to open new businesses indirectly creating jobs. 

    Hopefully this helps.

  12. On 12/27/2019 at 11:33 AM, Alvin89 said:

    Dumb question, is there an easy way to go about shorting the market when the inevitable downturn happens?

    Amongst other options, I'm surprised that no one has mentioned using the VIX to hedge against eventual downturn. You could buy long dated VIX calls and finance that purchase with selling similarly dated and slightly lower priced VIX puts. When the inevitable downturn occurs, the volatility will spike and increase the value of your calls(you sell those) and decrease the value of your puts(you buy those back at a lower price).

    Profit. 

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