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Hugo Stiglitz

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Posts posted by Hugo Stiglitz

  1. 7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    The thing is, they’re bad. And by bad, I mean methodology. Trump is not going to go 50/50 with 18-34 or win 25% of black voters or 45% of Hispanics.

    Sampling and methodology has been awful for almost 10 years now. Hell, call it 12 because the polls sure looked like Obama was going to lose. He won comfortably 

    It has been so bad it really calls into question much of the field of political science, and/or its application in our society.  I’d also argue that many poll questions are poorly worded and lack creativity.  Perhaps this is as much a media problem as it is a data analytical problem. 

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  2. So IMO the biggest void in the media world is a personality that has a consensus reputation among the population as an “honest broker.”  We do not have a perceived Walter Cronkite as our boomer ancestors did.  John Stewart is no Cronkite but if he’s attempting to fill that void, I salute him. 

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  3. 16 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

    Pretty fucking disappointed in Merkley and Sanders.

    Not sure what merkley’s reasoning was but Bernie’s is on brand. 

  4. Imagine how much it must suck to be Joe Biden.  Dude comes out of retirement to save America from a Kremlin puppet and the GOP nominates that same asshole again.  You can see how this might complicates things for Biden… he almost has to run because if he doesn’t and Trump wins, he would probably feel responsible… and if he does run and Trump wins, he would also feel responsible.  On top of that, there’s a major war in Eastern Europe and the Middle East is an ongoing disaster. Biden must have done some bad shit in a previous life to deserve this level of stress at the spry age of 81. 

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  5. 4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

    She’d run circles around Biden in a debate though and she’d get in all of her talking points.

     

    7 minutes ago, Blotto said:

    I agree that Haley would have a pretty good shot at taking down Biden as a presidential candidate, I'd probably make her the favorite. But adding Haley to a Trump ticket does absolutely nothing, as Trump is toxic as fuck and will drive massive dem voter turnout. "No Trump" means a lot of people that voted Biden last time around will stay home, or might even consider voting for someone that isnt 126 years old. 

    I agree with these with the exception that Haley adds nothing to the ticket.  She probably wouldn’t add enough to change the outcome of the election for the reasons given so it’s a moot point (no one votes for Vice President), but if it came down to a Trump/Haley versus a Trump/Stefanik or Trump/Micheal Flynn or Trump/Ivanka ticket… pretty clear here who the best choice would be.

     Point is Haley has enough establishment street cred and campaign chops to give Trump’s campaign more perceptible/marketable legitimacy than the alternatives.  She’s already kinda selling herself as the last adult in the room within the party. Will it happen? Probably not because Trump is a petty self-destructive moron but it’s fun to hypothesize. 

  6. 24 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    everyone is *so certain* she'd 100% beat Biden,

    Do you honestly believe the Biden campaign would prefer to run against Nikki Haley over Donald Trump?  Because I do not.  

    I’m not certain Haley could win but she’d make the race more interesting.  Sadly, these presidential races basically come down to who can run the most effective marketing strategy within six weeks of the general election.  Over the last 15 years I’ve seen a black man named Hussein and a imbecilic racist unregistered sex offender become president.  Anything is possible. 
     

    For the record, Haley sucks on multiple levels but a Trump/Haley ticket would be tragically formidable.

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