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Posts posted by Orale
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2 hours ago, dieucla98 said:
Spend more time in Japan vs Korea. I'd just spend the entire time in Japan, to be honest. I think it's a far better vacation.
But if you're single and ready to mingle, Korean women do love Americans.
Ditto. Seoul was cool. Maybe worth a few days including a trip to the DMZ. I went to Busan for a couple days but found it meh. Not a bad country to visit briefly, but not especially memorable either.
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LBGTQ
in Cloak Room
Southern Baptists Endorse Effort to Overturn Same-Sex Marriage
The nation’s largest Protestant denomination was motivated by conservative Christians’ success in reversing Roe v. Wade.
Southern Baptists voted overwhelmingly on Tuesday to call for the overturning of the Supreme Court ruling that legalized same-sex marriage, with strategists citing the successful effort that overturned the right to legal abortions as a possible blueprint for the new fight.
The denomination has long opposed gay marriage, but Tuesday was the first time its members have voted to work to legally end it. Expanding on conservatives’ success in overturning Roe v. Wade in 2022, the vote signals growing evangelical ambitions to overturn Obergefell v. Hodges, the Supreme Court ruling that was handed down 10 years ago this month.
Spoiler“What we’re trying to do is keep the conversation alive,” said Andrew Walker, an ethicist at a Southern Baptist seminary in Kentucky who wrote the resolution.
Mr. Walker leads the Southern Baptist committee that gathers proposals from Baptists around the country to be debated and put to a vote at the meeting. Baptists, he said, are taking the long view, inspired by the tactics of the anti-abortion movement. Roe v. Wade granted a constitutional right to abortion that stood for nearly 50 years before activists and legal strategists defeated it, powered by support from Christian conservatives.
The Baptists’ vote against Obergefell took place at the end of the first day of the denomination’s annual meeting, which is being held this year at a convention center in Dallas. Attracting thousands of pastors and church members from large and small congregations across the country, the meeting is being closely watched as a snapshot of evangelical sentiment on a range of political, theological and cultural issues.
The measure opposing same-sex marriage was part of a sweeping and unusually long resolution under the title, “On Restoring Moral Clarity through God’s Design for Gender, Marriage, and the Family.” It includes calls for defunding Planned Parenthood, for “parental rights in education and healthcare,” and ensuring “safety and fairness in female athletic competition,” a reference to the debate over transgender women in women’s sports.
The resolution is nonbinding, but suggests that evangelicals have long-term ambitions to dismantle an institution that many Americans now accept as a basic right. Southern Baptists who supported the resolution acknowledged that same-sex marriage has wide support.
“It puts Southern Baptists on the record,” said Denny Burk, the president of the Council on Biblical Manhood and Womanhood, which advocates for distinct roles for men and women. “We know that we’re in a minority in the culture right now, but we want to be a prophetic minority.”
The resolution also echoes the language of pronatalism that has taken hold in many conservative circles, including those influencing the second Trump administration. The resolution that passed on Tuesday criticizes the pursuit of “willful childlessness” and refers to the country’s declining fertility rate as a crisis. That language goes beyond Baptists’ traditional support of general “family values,” embracing a cultural agenda that encourages larger families as a matter of civilizational survival. Baptist theology does not oppose birth control per se.
Other resolutions passed on Tuesday called for banning pornography, and condemning sports betting. “We denounce the promotion and normalization of this predatory industry in every athletic context,” the gambling resolution stated. It called on corporations involved to “cease their exploitative practices,” on policymakers to curtail sports betting, and on Christians to refuse to participate.
The Southern Baptist Convention is the nation’s largest Protestant denomination, and is often seen as a bellwether for conservative evangelicalism writ large. Like many Christian denominations, it is broadly in decline, with about 12.7 million members in 2024, a 2 percent decline from the year before. But church attendance and baptisms were up, suggesting an ongoing vitality in the pews.
Passing the resolution against same-sex marriage could suggest to policymakers that conservative Christians have the will to sustain long-term opposition to positions without much popular support, including from some conservative politicians.
Last year, the convention adopted a resolution opposing the use of in vitro fertilization, frustrating many Republicans who wanted to reassure voters that their opposition to abortion would not endanger widely popular fertility treatments. President Trump called himself the “father of I.V.F.” during the 2024 campaign, and said he wanted to make the treatments free for all Americans.
On Wednesday the delegates, called “messengers”, will consider whether to abolish their own public policy arm, which its critics say is out of step with conservative Baptists in the pews. They will also discuss a constitutional amendment cracking down on women pastors, which failed to pass last year but seems to have gained support.
Some messengers in the room said the mood at the convention feels steadier this year, after several years of bruising internal battles. Speakers on the main stage and from the floor have often mentioned unity. Many messengers are weary after contentious debates over issues on which the denomination broadly agrees.
About 10,500 messengers have registered for this year’s meeting, a downtick from years past when hot-button disputes drew high numbers of church leaders and members to make their voices heard. The proceedings on Tuesday consistently ran ahead of schedule. It was a distinctly unusual development for a sometimes rowdy, chaotic gathering at which any participant is invited to speak from the floor, and which attempts to conform to Robert’s Rules of Order sometimes devolve into exasperation or laughter.
Clint Pressley, the pastor of a large church in North Carolina, was easily elected to a second term as president of the denomination on Tuesday afternoon. Mr. Pressley, an affable preacher who has largely avoided controversy, told messengers in an address on Tuesday morning that although the denomination has “found ourselves in a little bit of a storm the last little bit,” its convictions and churches are largely solid.
“It is good to be a Southern Baptist,” he concluded.
Ruth Graham is a national reporter, based in Dallas, covering religion, faith and values for The Times.
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People who drive fast in parking lots, particularly where families with children are present. I'm getting out of my car at the Y and some POS is zooming through the lot like he's in an F1 race.
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5 hours ago, Iceman said:
One way players over Dream in this discussion tell me people are either 20/ 30 something or biased AF towards their given teams.
Add/Substitute Duncan and the same point holds.
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If you haven't already, you should freeze you and your wife's three credit agency accounts. I don't know if it's foolproof, but my understanding is that it makes it very difficult for scammers to open accounts using your info.
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That's awesome. I did a three day layover when returning from Europe a few years back and loved it. Because of the short time I had I just did the Golden Circle drive which was gorgeous, then spent the rest of the time in Reykjavík and nearby.
It is expensive, but there are plenty of ways to eat reasonably. I stopped at Ikea for example and gassed up and ate at their cafe. Moderately priced ingredients and meals can be had at grocery stores as well.
The roads are in really good condition and people are friendly drivers I found. The small population overall is very friendly and accustomed to tourists. I look forward to hearing about your more in depth visit of the country.
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I saw a post on a Surly thread the other day I can't find now about how baseball games at Dallas Baptist University pause and everyone stands at attention at a certain time in the evening when Taps is played at the adjacent U.S. Cemetery to honor veterans buried there. It was a bit dusty when I watched it.
Then I became sad and despairing thinking how we are throwing away all that sacrifice for this orange piece of shit and his corrupt minions at all levels of government and his corporate counterparts. Our country has gotten through plenty of dark times and I try to remain optimistic we can get through this period, but it's more and more difficult.
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I don't imbibe so it'll be lots of great coffee for me. I have a high end coffee tour planned.
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2 hours ago, 52-80 said:
Pizza 4Ps in the big cities.
It might sound heretical eating pizza from a (now big) chain in Asia but it is a *legit* operation. Supremely well run and executed. Menu is of course beyond just pizza and has local flavors.Just checked and there's one a block from my hotel. Will definitely check it out.
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I'm traveling in Japan. There's a free, clean, restroom with bidet toilets every few blocks it seems. I've been drinking fluids with reckless abandon.
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Bump. Headed to Vietnam in a month. Plan is Saigon 3 nights, Hoi An 2 nights, Hue 2 nights, and Hanoi 4 nights with one of those being an overnight cruise in Halong Bay.
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I'm traveling in Japan at the moment and my culo has never been more consistently clean.
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6 hours ago, thrillhammer said:
tycoon flats
smoke shack
la fonda
cappys
sams
cullums
a million places at the pearl
I grew up going to La Fonda for special occasions. I feel in recent years the quality has become pretty meh while prices keep, understandably, going up. Tycoon Flats is really underrated. Really solid reasonably priced food in a family-friendly environment. The owner is an Aggie, but he's a good guy who likes to make the rounds checking in on customers.
For tacos, I'll ditto whoever mentioned Pete's Takos downtown (more midtown). My favorite spot a short drive from Brackenridge for JGray is Mary Lou's in Olmos Park. Consistently really good tacos in a nice restaurant. The staff is super friendly.
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LBGTQ
in Cloak Room
It'll be interesting to see how the new Pope treats the LGBTQ community. One of the (many) reasons I left Catholicism was the condescending "love the sinner, not the sin" approach that even a decent guy like Francis took. I don't consider my lifestyle a sin, thank you very much.
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1 hour ago, texasdago said:
$15????? OMG... I remember how cheap it used to be.
I follow a BA expat forum as I've considered buying a small place down there for my retirement years. There is a lot of talk by expats about how expensive day to day living has become the last couple of years. It's obviously related to their economic policies, but I've never bothered to learn the why of it.
When I was there for a month last summer, I definitely noticed that everything seemed relatively a lot more expensive than my previous visits in 2015 and 2018. I also noticed the quality of the food, particularly the meat, had degraded quite of bit. I still love it down there, but I won't consider buying until they work through all this mess.
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1 hour ago, Iceman said:My kids had manors
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10 minutes ago, rage-a-holic said:
Very important video here - who has the best egg salad sando?
I love egg salad sandos. I'm not a big foodie and plan on eating on a budget, so I foresee many of these.
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I spent a month there last summer and loved it. I stayed in Palermo Soho which is a fun albeit touristy neighborhood. All the things you listed are good options for a short visit. Check out Steaks by Luis for an impressive meat culinary experience.
Iguazu can be done in a day with an early/late flight out of the Newbery airport. I walked through it in about two hours and was impressed but ready to go after.
I went to a pro soccer game which was a lot of fun. An estancia visit might be fun.
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Is there a decent free or lower-cost android alternative to YT Music? I enjoy the ease and convenience of using it, but I'm trying to lower my monthly subscriptions to a million services.
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When you dig out a big solid booger first thing in the morning and your nose cavity feels so clear and free.
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Bezos is a bitch for not doing that.
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This is what I'm thinking for an itinerary over 13 nights. I wasn't planning on going to Kyoto again, but it's convenient for the high speed train and as a base to Nara and other nearby smaller destination day trips. Same for Tokyo the last two days.
I'm debating getting the 14-day JR Railpass. Some travel sites suggest it might be more trouble than its worth if your itinerary doesn't fall cleanly on their routes. The cost of the individual tickets roughly add up equal to the cost of a railpass, so I'll probably pass on it to maintain flexibility and avoid the strictures of the pass.
Tokyo Tokyo Kanazawa Kanazawa Takayama Kyoto/Nara Kyoto/Nara Hiroshima Hiroshima Fukuoka Fukuoka Tokyo/Nikko Tokyo/Nikko Leave -
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On 4/27/2025 at 3:46 AM, YChang said:
Got back last night… I’m sure I’ll be in Japan/Vacation withdrawals as soon as my jet lag and cold is gone.
Just wanted to add a PSA for those of y’all planning future trips to consider other places to visit besides the big 3 of Tokyo, Kyoto, and Osaka.
On this trip took a bullet train from Tokyo to Kananzawa. It took about 3 hours. It’s such a cool little city. Much much much less crowded and for some reason majority of the tourists I encountered were Italians, French, and Spanish. I think I can count on one hand the number of American accents I heard. Kanazawa has great food, various older districts like Kyoto, and plenty of upscale shopping for those that love that aspect of Japan. Also rented a car and explored the West Coast of Japan into smaller towns which has some amazing scenery.
Also, the Grand Class for the bullet train is amazing.
Some random pics of Kanazawa, Shirakawa-go, and areas around Fukui.
Thanks for that. I'm headed there for 2 weeks the end of next week. I did the big 3 on a previous visit so I'm looking for secondary cities and interesting locales for this trip other than the first two nights which will be in Tokyo to adjust to jet lag.
I have Kanazawa as a for sure stop and will post the others I'm looking at after doing some more research today. I'm flying Zipair for the first time which should be interesting. I purchased exit row seats for both directions from Honolulu so I'll at least have good legroom.
The Trump Economy
in Cloak Room
Posted · Edited by Orale
House Policy Bill Would Add $3.4 Trillion to Debt, Swamping Economic Gains
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/us/politics/house-bill-federal-debt.html?unlocked_article_code=1.P08.YQAs.oktITAZsnXhS&smid=url-share
Top notch fiscal conservatism!
House Republicans’ sprawling package to cut taxes and slash federal safety-net programs would add about $3.4 trillion to the debt, according to nonpartisan congressional analysts, who reported on Tuesday that the minor gains in economic growth under the bill would not offset its full fiscal impact.
The updated findings from the Congressional Budget Office amounted to yet another dour report card for the president’s signature legislation, which passed the House last month but now faces the prospect of significant revisions to its core components in the Senate.
In its current form, the House Republican bill would extend and expand a set of expiring tax cuts enacted by President Trump during his first term. It would pay for some of those expensive components with deep cuts to federal anti-poverty programs, including Medicaid and food stamps.
The C.B.O. report issued on Tuesday sought to project the ways the bill would interact with federal spending and the U.S. economy, building on its earlier finding that the House-passed measure carried a roughly $2.4 trillion price tag.
The nonpartisan analysts found that the House approach, if signed into law, would deliver a 0.09 percent boost to annual growth rate in the nation’s gross domestic product in the first few years after enactment, compared to current projections.
The budget office said that lower taxes would spur some American families and businesses to spend and invest more. But it also determined that the uptick in economic activity would not be sufficient to cover the costs of the legislation. Even after factoring in spending cuts, the proposal would still add nearly $2.8 trillion to federal deficits over the next 9 years, according to the official tally from C.B.O. The figure grows to about $3.4 trillion if the full costs of federal borrowing are included.
The gap reflects the stark reality that federal debt is rising, and becoming more expensive for Washington to sustain. It causes investors to demand higher returns to lend money to the United States, which creates a vicious cycle, as the government must then borrow more to pay those higher yields.
As a result, the House Republican tax bill could cause prices to rise and send interest rates higher, particularly on 10-year bonds, which stand to rise by 14 basis points over the next decade, the budget office said. Those bonds are key benchmarks that shape borrowing costs across the economy, even for consumers, raising the odds that the Republican tax measure could make mortgages and other products more expensive.
For the government, the level of debt held by the public would total about 124 percent of the nation’s economic output by 2035 if the House Republican bill were to become law, the budget office found. That is more than the office previously predicted, and much higher than most economists believe to be sustainable for a developed country.
The findings cast fresh doubt on Republicans’ continued assertions that their signature bill is less expensive than it appears. Until now, congressional estimates of the House tax package and its costs had not measured its complex interplay with the U.S. economy, prompting Mr. Trump and his allies to dismiss earlier negative findings as incomplete.
The budget office based its newest estimates in part on a set of projections previously put forward by the Joint Committee on Taxation, another nonpartisan advisory arm of Congress.
The official congressional score echoes the conclusions reached by other economists across the political spectrum, who have found one by one that the House Republican tax bill would yield limited growth while conferring its most generous benefits on businesses and the wealthy, rather than the poor.
Administration officials have responded skeptically to such estimates, seeking to discredit experts while presenting a more optimistic view of the president’s economic agenda.
Earlier this spring, the Trump administration put forward its own analysis showing the Republican tax proposal could raise economic output by as much as about 5 percent in the short term, compared with what might happen without the bill.
But the analysis appeared to hinge on Congress extending a set of generous corporate tax deductions on a permanent basis, something that House Republicans did not actually include in their legislation. On Monday, Republicans in the Senate unveiled a version of the bill that would make many of these corporate tax breaks permanent.
Mr. Trump’s top aides also have insisted the House bill, along with the president’s global tariffs, would serve to reduce the nation’s debt over the next 10 years. But that would require the United States to maintain steep taxes on imports for the entire decade, outlasting even Mr. Trump, who at times has offered to lower tariffs in exchange for favorable trade concessions around the world.
Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, pointed in a statement to the tariff revenue estimates as he sought to make the case that the president’s agenda would not worsen the nation’s debt.
“The Trump administration remains committed to an America First agenda of tariffs, rapid deregulation and domestic energy prediction that ushered in historic job, wage and economic growth during President Trump’s first term — prosperity that C.B.O. had also failed to predict back in 2017,” Mr. Desai added.