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DonkeyCigars

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Posts posted by DonkeyCigars

  1. We have, what, five Trillion dollar companies now that Tesla is one as of Monday? 

    We can't have Trillion dollar companies without creating billionaires. You disincentivize the ability to become a billionaire and you limit the business and GDP/growth/business will suffer. 

    If the argument is "we don't actually need to be constantly innovating and creating and advancing through new products, services and experiences and there is a threshold where doing so actually is a net negative (i.e. creating billionaires, etc.)" then I can see the argument to cap people's potential and earnings with something like Longhorn_fans proposal. You will get a Soviet style society of bureaucrats with all the mediocre stylings that society affords. Brain drain will happen and everyone with the ability to do and make and create who want to earn will diaspora to whichever country is smart enough to cater to these folks. Then you are left with a bunch of people who look around at the stagnation and wonder "what happened to all that free stuff I was supposed to be getting solely by virtue of being born over the right geographic dirt?" 

  2. 5 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

    Yup. If you somehow manage to accumulate that much wealth, anything over $999,999,999 is 100% taxed. Period. It's just amazing to me that anyone would defend billionaires. It's like they don't know the difference between a billion and a million. If you, like Donkey Dick, make $200k a year, you could reasonably be a millionaire in a decade or two. To reach billionaire, you'd have to work for 5,000 years. When Bernie says there should not be billionaires, that's what he is talking about. 

    Then who will do all the shit they don't want to do? They don't want ALL the poors dead, just the ones that aren't useful to them

    I've taken many insults from you, but this sir might be the last straw! 

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1
  3. On 10/20/2021 at 8:47 AM, 'stache said:

    I assume it's a pocket dial if there is no vm or follow up text.

    Related rant: My wife absolutely refuses to keep her phone on her and refuses to ever listen to a voicemail. There are times I urgently need to get a hold of her, and can't. We've argued about it a lot, and she flat out refuses. Can't fucking stand it.

    This used to be.

    The answer? The Apple Watch. My wife wears the watch so she can't NOT get a phone call when I need her. In fact, I'd say 90% of her phone calls she takes are on her wrist these days.

  4. 1 hour ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

    How much money do you need?  OK maybe $5 million?    How much is enough?   You like the status quo?   If so fine, just say so and we do nothing.

    How much is enough is a mix of personal opinion and moving target depending on a variety of macro and micro trends (inflation, market conditions, time value of money equations, etc. et al). If you are asking me my personal opinion; $1bn seems reasonable.

  5. 3 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

    Oversimplifying things, but I would just say set a minimum retirement investment amount of say, $2 million or so, and then any gains on investments above that amount, whether realized (sold) or not get taxed at the income rate.  

    My first reaction to that is "Yuck", so I can't imagine what the reaction is to most people with either wealth or line of sight to wealth or those that have the abilities, skills and qualities to achieve life-changing wealth (aspirational voters).

  6. 5 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

    You sure can tax unrealized gains. Every state with property taxes already does.

    That's true, though I'd argue property ownership/investment is a much more stable vehicle historically. 

    I think a further argument is around the negative collateral damage and what would happen to investments and innovations that are moon/loonshots versus finding other ways to grow and keep your money, which would reduce the taxable base as well.

    Also I edited to add to late before you quoted, but taxing billionaires is a good idea and I agree with you, but I think this is a better route:

    Quote

    “Super-rate brackets” may be the next attempt to tax the uber-rich, according to Punchbowl News. This would create higher taxes for incomes over a certain amount — 5 percent extra on incomes above $10 million and another 3 percent on incomes above $25 million. This idea is still under negotiation and may not materialize with these details, if at all.

     

  7. Taxing billionaires is fine, but you simply can't tax unrealized gains-- it's a dynamic nightmare (do you refund money when the investments tank during fluctuations?) and it's unconstitutional. The argument can be made the smartest thing the Dems did was let this idea get killed because if it went to a Supreme Court full of conservatives (which it 100% would have) then it would have been killed and the precedent would have been set in a way Dems wouldn't have liked.

    The "Super rate" idea I was reading about this AM seems like a much better idea:

    Quote

    “Super-rate brackets” may be the next attempt to tax the uber-rich, according to Punchbowl News. This would create higher taxes for incomes over a certain amount — 5 percent extra on incomes above $10 million and another 3 percent on incomes above $25 million. This idea is still under negotiation and may not materialize with these details, if at all.

     

    • Hook 'Em 1
  8. Why are a couple of you folks jumping to "affordable housing" with this gambit versus the very obvious and publicly stated benefits of "cutting down build time, supply chain issues and labor bottlenecks while also cutting down on Co2/carbon footprint concerns at the same premium housing price"?

    Quote

    Don’t expect a big discount for buyers, though. According to Lennar, the 3D-printed homes will be priced similarly to other homes in the Austin area—a city recently described as the “capital of homes selling at super premiums.”

     

  9. 18 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

    Yeah, outside of a few people hording TP, businesses aren't "over-ordering" and "stockpiling". We are ordering more than usual, but that's because it takes us 3 months to get us what usually took 3 weeks. 

    https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2021/10/stop-shopping-global-supply-chain-shipping-delays/620465/

    "Worried About the Supply Chain? Stop Shopping."

    • Haha 1
  10. 8 hours ago, troph said:

    I’m not arguing against the 4 year degree, I expect all three of my kids to graduate from a 4 year university.  I’m arguing the value of say TCU, Baylor, Other private school, out of state public (none top tier) versus 2 years ACC and last 2 at a UTSA or Texas State. To me it’s the piece of paper not the institution unless it’s premier. Put another way minimize cost unless it’s one of the top schools.

    Gotcha. Mileage obviously varies, but I see way more soft value in a college experience for my kids at a place like TCU or SMU or Tulane than having them live at home and work the drive-thru while hammering out basics.

    Maybe it’s changed and I’m archaic but college is more than just what is learned in the auditorium lecture halls, to me.

    I have multiple degrees and still the most valuable connections come from the undergrad connections and fraternity brothers and others connected with; multiple jobs that got me in through the back door that way, multiple deals done and at least one start up was done through those relationships.

    In the grand scheme of things it is a better investment is my thesis, but I also have paid for private school K4-12th grade, so my POV may be skewed in that I’m used to education costs being budgeted and accounted as an overall investment in experience and social and culture and not just rote education.

  11. 1 hour ago, troph said:

    Losing out on a higher paying job? Maybe but it’s not without different and possibly even more lucrative opportunities. It’s not closing the door to college it’s just refusing to accept the premise that a $100k degree is mandatory. Maybe it’s not.  

    In the same way that it's never been mandatory for the right person or persons with the right attributes (smart, creative, curious, innovative, resilient, etc.). For the average Joe Sixpack of below average to average intelligence like myself and most of America, it's a worthwhile investment as a heuristic to signal a virtue to the rest of society (e.g. employers, peers, etc.)

    • Hook 'Em 1
  12. 6 minutes ago, midtown said:

    So you're interested in the perspectives of a bunch of ex-bartenders?   Realtors are insurance and car salespeople rolled up into one.   To think they have an idea of the complexities of the housing market and the micro and macro economics is hilarious. 

    I absolutely was not talking about realtors (no offense to the california realtor gil who is the exception to the rule). I'm talking about RE knowledge workers as RE professionals extends to bankers and analysts who work for bulge brackets and boutique finance, too, right? You should know this; you are in NYC right? Unless midtown means Houston in which case, well, speaking of hilarious...

  13. To troph's point and many others, it seems a lot of folks are thinking alike:

    Quote

     

    More than 500,000 fewer students enrolled in college in 2020 compared to 2019, about a 3% drop, and an additional half-million are expected to have torn up their applications this year, according to preliminary data. That would be the biggest two-year enrollment decline in over 50 years, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

    It's not the Harvards of the world that are hurting for students:

    10% fewer students enrolled in community colleges—which have more low-income students and students of color than four-year schools—in 2020 vs. 2019, and community college enrollment is projected to have dropped another 5.6% this fall.

    That bucks the typical trend: Normally when the economy is doing poorly, all enrollment, but especially community college enrollment, rises as people skip out on the job market to level up their education.

    Zoom out: Undergraduate and graduate enrollment has been sliding since 2012, but fell off a cliff when the pandemic kicked everyone off campus last year. Fewer students enrolling now = fewer grads seeking higher-paying jobs later.

     

     

  14. 1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

    That's a big problems for many as well.  They have all this equity on paper, but if they sell, and if they have a family, where do they move to?  Further out?  Maybe.  But for many the realized gains don't bear out.  You can leverage the equity via loans, but now your monthly payments go up.  

    This was my problem. I built a house in a desirable area and started the contract/build pre-Covid. During the amazing run up, from the time I contracted and the time closed, the equity gained (albeit the build time was a protracted and delayed due to Covid and early supply chain issues-- think 10-11 months vs. 4-6 average) was nearly $225k. Wife and I flirted with the idea to just close, take possession and then immediately sell and net $200k or whatever and chalk it up to, for once in our lives, being lucky and gaining good fortune blindly.

    But then upon further investigation, where do we live? Any another home we engage will just be the $225k higher and it's simply a reshuffling the cards in the deck, unless you move out of state or 2 hours away from a metro area. Ultimately didn't make sense to flip and moving in to a home we knew we would somewhat like (we chose all the variables in the new build, after all) and having the equity in our back pocket while watching the market develop was less risky to us.

    All that to say, I think these are interesting issues and complex problems and fascinating times and am enjoying the RE professionals perspectives here.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  15. 6 hours ago, 'stache said:

    Or, you know, just have them pay taxes and living wages, the way it was when the boomers lived well and now pretend that everyone below them is lazy.

    re: Billionaire tax:

    NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran wrote that the proposal is “perhaps the worst thought-through and most ineffective attempt ever at rewriting tax code.” Questions like, “What do you do when an investment goes down?” “How would they come up with the money without selling other assets?” and, “Is this even constitutional?” are not easily answered.

    • Fuck You 1
  16. 45 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

    I'd be curious to know the name and source of that piece or even the actual point that was being made.

    How does Socrates fit into that thesis?

    Have you read Plato? Socrates doesn't fit what you seem to be getting at.

    Also, as I hope I've satiated your curiosity with my response, I'd be curious to get your feedback after reading that article on both the point being made, the dotted line I drew from the article to Trump/this thread, and any other takeaways you might have had. Especially since I feel you are unfairly skeptical, at times, about my sources because I thought it was obvious I only read reputable and learned literature and quarterlies. 😛

    • Haha 1
  17. 11 hours ago, TheFlyingBoat said:

    TCU? Def not worth it imo. UT is for sure. Texas A&M is probably worth it if you're doing engineering and got rejected from UT. Imo the best heuristic is top Ivy/top Ivy adjacent private (and I mean actually top Ivy adjacent a la Stanford, Duke, MIT, or Johns Hopkins and not Georgetown (unless you're an SFSer I guess), Wake Forest, Case Western etc.) or public flagship university for your area or community college->cheap regional school. The fact of the matter is you can get a really, really good education at community college and at regional schools for like <10k a year in tuition. Unless the name is so good in your region or nationally while still being affordable (state flagship) or elite enough that price is irrelevant (HYMPS type schools), I just don't see a reason to not go to community college and then transfer to a good public school for your final two years.

    My point is, if in the grand scheme of things $200k isn't a lot of money and it's all relative, then an investment to a recognizable school if for no other reason than the experience and check-box degree, is a fine time and worth it. YMMV

  18. 29 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

    I'd be curious to know the name and source of that piece or even the actual point that was being made.

    How does Socrates fit into that thesis?

    Have you read Plato? Socrates doesn't fit what you seem to be getting at.

    The source was BBC, here is the link: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210922-would-plato-tweet-the-ancient-greek-guide-to-social-media

    Here are some quotes:

    When philosophy began, the written word in the Greek-speaking world was still very young – and so ideas were often disseminated as oral-performative acts in public spaces, not unlike the epic poems of the previous age. Long before philosophers were writing books and papers, their thoughts had to be transmitted in a way that could grab their audience's attention – there was an element of public display.

    Early philosophers developed highly elaborate public personas

    The influential pre-Socratic philosopher Xenophanes presented his ideas in the context of rhapsodic contests, where poets vied for prizes and renown – philosophical rap competitions, of a sort. Early philosophers also developed highly elaborate public personas. Empedocles, who's credited with inventing the idea of the four Classical elements, made his public appearances with extravagant flair – a purple robe, a golden belt, sandals of bronze – and referred to himself as an incarnate god. 

    Empedocles made public appearances with extravagant flair, and referred to himself as a god (Credit: Alamy)

    If these modes of self-presentation had included the ability to take video, you would have had some potentially very viral philosophers. They were, in their manner, akin to content creators and influencers, in that their intellectual authority consisted not only in their ideas, but their performative eloquence, and the cult of personality with which they surrounded themselves. 

    Perhaps the most famous ancient Greek philosopher managed to disseminate his ideas without ever writing anything at all. Socrates, as we're told, conducted in-the-moment philosophical conversations, usually in public places, in which he challenged conventional wisdom on various topics – provoking his fellow citizens, and, fatally for himself, the government. His art was verbal, but his expressions were as transient as a tweet or a post, a virtuous troll in the comments sections of Athenian intellectual life. 

    We may be returning to a state in which a thinker's claim to wisdom relies on their ability to effectively perform it

    His exploits are recreated for us in the writings of his students, most famously Plato. In many ways these Socratic dialogues, which are the fountainhead of the whole philosophical tradition that follows, can be read as a fictionalised biography of a career influencer – the Collected Twitter Threads of Socrates, liberally reinvented, yet perhaps faithful in spirit. 

    In the age of social media, we may be returning to a state in which a thinker's claim to wisdom relies on their ability to effectively perform it – with the additional requirement that they're able to transmute that performance into content.

    • Like 1
  19. 19 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

    LMAO.  So what we all questioned was actually happening . . . they got out over their skis and were buying at a premium that could not be recovered soon enough to cover carrying costs, if not outright invested $$$.

    Good job, Zillow.

    Faced with the fastest-rising real estate prices in U.S. history, Zillow Group Inc. tweaked the algorithms that power its home-flipping operation to make higher offers. 

    It ended up with so many winning bids that it had to stop making new offers on properties. Now, after buying more homes in the third quarter than it ever has before, the company is working through a backlog of houses that need to be fixed up and sold while facing an unpleasant reality: Slowing price appreciation means it will sell many homes at a loss. …

    The shift has been on display in places such as Atlanta and Phoenix, two markets where home prices have been surging. Zillow’s roughly 250 active listings in Phoenix are currently priced at 6% less, on average, than what the company paid for the homes. 

    That amounts to a $29,000 discount on the typical property, according to data compiled by Mike DelPrete, a real estate tech strategist and scholar-in-residence at the University of Colorado Boulder. 

    “Every key metric I’ve seen from Zillow over the past few months just doesn’t make sense,” DelPrete said. “It’s like it’s making decisions two to three months too late relative to the market.”

    I for one am excited for housing market structure to replicate equity market structure. Eventually people will list 100 houses for sale to spoof Zillow’s algorithm into lowering its price, and then buy one house from Zillow cheap. 

  20. 5 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

    Fuck this stupid country. If I can't afford a second house because some stupid piece of shit needs medical care, then I don't want to live anymore. 

    Is the pivot that $200k is too much to make? That’s barely getting by where I live.

    • Fuck You 2
  21. 3 minutes ago, troph said:

    Back the topic though - I really struggle with the undergrad equation for my kids absent a top tier school and a desired career that requires it. Current thinking is some community college, bang out a degree from a regional university, with some business classes then start a business to learn some fundamentals and then move up into investing, managing and selling with me. The alternative path is the career path, but cost of undergrad for a $70k job seems a little out of whack. Kids can do what they want that’s the real equation but the value proposition seems to be failing at least for me.

    Ivy League and Little Ivies are no brainer good ideas.

    If $200k, in the grand scheme of things, isn’t a big deal, it’s a no brainer (IMO) to send the kid to UT or A&M or TCU or wherever you live near and are culturally aligned for a) the network/social b) the experience and c) the lifelong check mark of having gone to a culturally or regionally recognized school for any professional formalities as we aren’t at a place in society where not having a 4 year mouth breathing degree is a mere luxury or seen as superlative yet (if ever?).

    This is how I’m thinking about it at least as my kids barrel towards college age.

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