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Shady Ray

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  1. Gerhard Schröder loses all employees in Bundestag office Former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (77) has lost all employees in his Bundestag office. "I can confirm that the four employees in the office have asked to work in other functions again," says Albrecht Funk from the office on request. All are formally employed by the Chancellery and are now employed elsewhere. First, "The Pioneer" had reported. ... Despite corresponding requests, Schröder also refuses the SPD leadership to hand over his posts with Russian energy companies. At the end of January, he accused Ukraine of saber rattling. Literally, he said in his podcast "The Agenda": "I very much hope that saber rattling in Ukraine will finally be stopped." On Thursday, he had called on the government in Moscow via LinkedIn to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible. However, there was no mention of personal consequences. ... Last year, 407,000 euros flowed out of the state treasury for personnel expenses in Schröder's office. This is evident from a response from the Chancellery to a request from the left-wing group, which was first reported by the Handelsblatt. The expenses concern the payment of the employees in Schröder's office. https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article237215561/Gerhard-Schroeder-Fehlende-Distanzierung-zu-Putin-Mitarbeiter-kuendigen.html
  2. Yes. It is completely unreasonable to think that after decades of authoritarian rule that a sudden and unexpected change in Russian government would end up in a spot where a new leader allowed the West significant access and influence within its markets. And no one is saying they are going to get intimately involved, but they are clearly able to extend significant lifelines to a Russia that would collapse otherwise. And that's my point. They will try to influence a wobbly Russian government in a significant way. Clearly there are many different ways that a succession in Russia could go. Most of them not leading to increased degree of democratic behavior. Doesn't change the fact that Russian leadership succession isn't incredibly critical for them.
  3. That's my thought, as well. And then that brings a very important issue up re China (and sincere apologies if this has already been hashed out over the last couple of days...it's been impossible to keep up with everything on this board for me since yesterday morning so I have skipped ahead to some degree...so if I am completely re-hashing shit just tell me to fuck off and catch back up). If Putin were to go via death and a similar-minded, but less outwardly objectionable replacement was in the cards, that's one thing. But if Beijing feels like the conditions are right for not only a Putin regime change, but also a directional change towards the West a la Yeltsin, I don't think they could sit by and let that happen. This isn't the early 90s. Russia's cooperative stance vis a vis China is way too important to China's goals, and having a western-friendly or neutral Russia on its border would be a disaster for them. Such a repositioning would also cause them significant problems wrt their south china sea positiion, as it would truly allow for a more focused US in that region. In short, what goes on Moscow right now is a really delicate balance for China. They can't be seen as indifferent, but they also can't allow anything from the resulting fallout to get too sideways wrt their goals.
  4. Man, this is where I think we are completely in uncharted territory. As inspiring as the Ukrainians have been so far, they can't hold out forever. And what we are seeing unfold on the ground now is shaping up to be a situation where the oft-repeated refrain of "never again will we stand by and watch wholesale slaughter occur on European soil" will be put to the test. And I think everyone knows that if we step in in any meaningful way, the conflict immediately expands to the worst possible possibilities. And I don't want to sound cynical, because all life is worth protecting, but prior to the last five days I don't think there would have even been the slightest inclination to offer anything more than concerned words re Russian atrocities over there in much of Western Europe. But the Ukrainian actions have been so emotionally inspiring, and their PR demonstrating their resolve and their humanity is fucking onnnnnn point, that I think we are going to see populations in certain corners seriously start to push leaders towards stepping in. And that is an understandable position...we are humans living in the free world, and we are influenced by the brutality that we see. And it is in our nature to want to stop it. But that good and wholesome desire very well kick off something really, really terrible. 

I can speak for many in Germany when I say that the “other-ization” of Ukrainians that was in place a mere week ago re the Ukrainians has washed away, and they are genuinely respected here now for what they have shown. And there is emotional investment in their safety and success. And with that investment comes willingness to accept steps that could kick off the big one. It truly is a really dangerous moment.
  5. Really awkward work call right now. Long story short, we have had a need for additional Russian lawyers on the transactional side of the Legal Department given the volume of business we do over there, so we hired three new attorneys over there during the last few weeks. Standard protocol in Germany is that people start employment on first day of the month, and offers are typically made 2-3 months before start dates due to longer notice periods in Europe. So all of these were hired late last year/early this year, starting today. Well, in the department-wide call that we have on the first Tuesday per month, all three introduced themselves. That in and of itself was a bit awkward, given the 8 Million KG Elephant in the room of “Y'all even gonna be needed at this stage”…until the below email came in. Literally while the third one was introducing herself...you could see all the heads on the MS Teams call checking emails while the call was going on and their slight reactions: Subject: Internal Memo: Supply of Goods to Russia Stopped Liebe Mitarbeiterinnen und Mitarbeiter, We will inform all customers today that due to the war in Ukraine and the associated sanctions against Russia, COMPANY has decided to stop all supply of goods to Russia. All shipments have been stopped with immediate effect and production planning has been adjusted accordingly. We understand this decision will create significant challenges for our customers, however, given the current environment, we consider this as the appropriate decision to take. We hope that the conflict will be resolved soon, so that we can re-evaluate the situation and possibly re-initiate deliveries. In addition, we would like to let you know that we are considering ways to help people who are suffering from the war. We will reach out to relief organizations to find out how we can help and support in this difficult situation. On behalf of the Executive Board / Signed CEO Immediately my individual chat messaging service lit up with variations of, “Hope these guys have euro contracts” (which, of course, they don't) or “Wonder what severance for 90 minutes of employment looks like?” Still on the call. Fucking brutal.
  6. Damn. I was buried with work until late yesterday and it looks like there is zero chance of catching up with this thread given the speed at which it moved yesterday. Anyway...first the Green leadership supports rearmament, and now they are supporting extension of the nuke plants. Idealism in a whole bunch of young Green Germans getting a cold dose of reality these past three days.
  7. I am feeling the same way. Last night trying to fall asleep I just kept thinking about how something just doesn't seem to add up here. As has been discussed in this thread, just in Syria alone the Russians have shown to be so much more capable than this. No efforts to cripple communication networks. Essentially no EW usage that we know of (even though Israel complained just two weeks ago about the impact Russian EW was having on their eyes in Syria). No cutting of the internet. Sloppy formations. Old equipment. Reliance on young, green conscripts. Complete abandonment of pre-existing Russian military doctrine. And all this after years and years of essentially obsessing over this exact conflict. I am no military man…but something just feels off here. I hope and pray that it truly is that they have just botched this thing.
  8. Absolutely fascinating article out tonight in Focus, one of the two big national mags. Summarizes the events of today, which wrt German society, is an unbelievably significant day. I have counted no less than half-a-dozen commentators on TV tonight saying to the effect, "We are now leaving our post-war pacifism behind." Full thing is worth the read...but the highlights: Putin's war has changed Germany. It took a whole four days for Germany to postpone its foreign policy axis. It is a historical course correction. If you should give a headline this Sunday, it might be this one: The 27th. February 2022 is the day of Germany's self-liberation. In any case, it is much more than what the Chancellor called a "turn of the century" in the Bundestag: It is no less than the largest course correction in Germany since the rearmament of the country in the 1950s. ... Energy security becomes the yardstick of our national sovereignty. A European defense community becomes conceivable. And the realization that Germany's security cannot be defended without nuclear weapons was openly expressed by the German chancellor. A Social Democrat. ... Merkel has been tinkering with an illusion for years Merkel is not only an architect of Russia politics, who is now in ruins, but she has worked together with today's Federal President Frank Walter Steinmeier for years on the illusion that "dialogue" can take place without military deterrence.
  9. Annalena's base already starting to revolt. Every party has a young voter group, but the Greens' are particularly numerous and influential, as the Greens have a huuuuuge amount of Greta Thunberg-driven supporters. The Young Greens are angered by the federal government's armaments plans. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) had announced a one-off "special fund" of 100 billion euros for the Bundeswehr in response to the Russian Ukraine campaign and the Kremlin's threats. This was done "without any political or social debate," complained Timon Dzienus, co-head of the Young Greens. "The supposed need for investment in the Bundeswehr results in particular from mismanagement and misplanning, not from a lack of budget," he told the German Press Agency on Sunday. "Now is not the time for long-term disarmament and armament policy debates, but for concrete support for the people of Ukraine." It is a central security issue to become independent through renewable energies, emphasized Dzienus. Instead of investing in further armament, the expansion of renewable energies, the heat transition and the complete balance of the social impact, such as rising energy prices, must be the top priority. The debt brake (Shady Note: "Debt Brake" is German law requiring balanced budget) must no longer stand in the way of this." https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article237187613/Ukraine-Krieg-Gruene-Jugend-irritiert-ueber-ploetzliche-Aufstockung-bei-Ruestung.html
  10. As an aside since you brought up Merz, his performance on the floor of the Bundestag in today’s Special Session (which, btw, are rarely called) was reallllll fuckin’ solid. I have spoken with two long-time SPD voters in the political class (35+ year SPD histories) this afternoon who each started off the conversation with variations of, “Yeah, Merz killed it today. He looked like the Chancellor.” And full disclosure here, I don't vote here and I don't particularly have political views within German politics...I try to stay as removed as possible as I find it helps me at work. Ultimately, I am going to pay the same amount of taxes regardless of who is in power in Berlin and I am not invested in their own unique viewpoints driven by German culture to care much about it emotionally/personally. Anyway, from the speech. Merz came out solidly supporting the existing government's u-turn clearly, but he made some very critical caveats that were not lost on the German voters: Per Merz, the CDU/CSU's continued support for the Government was contingent on: 1. a complete re-thinking of the German energy policy “we must once and for all eliminate the destructive idea that we have only narrow options for energy production” (translated: Fuck your platform, Greens and your little windmills, too…time to get real) 2. euro-for-euro cuts from elsewhere in the budget, including left-wing goodies. “We will not stand by supporting you to implement these things only for you to continue to distribute all the benefits in your coalition unchanged at the expense of the young generation. We will not do that." (translated: Fuck you, Greens. Fuck you, SPD….we are going to curb your spending in exchange for you having the “luxury’” of continuing to lead this country -at least until the fallout of all this shit with Russia causes your numbers drop to the point where we can govern in a 2-way coalition with the FDP, instead of a tripartite arrangement with one of y'all. Keep up the good work, FDP…y’all will be in with us sooner rather than later.) 3. the increase in Bundeswehr spending must not constitute “tinkering”. It must be a full “a comprehensive and full upgrade to the Bundeswehr, in which case your government will receive our continued support”
 He then blasted Gerhard Schröder and post-war generation SPD guard, calling out all prior SPD claims that Putin is “a democrat”…calls Putin a “Kriegsverbrecher”…"War Criminal". (Got standing ovation for that one) I know there are more important things going on at the moment than German politics, but since there are some who are interested, this was a really shrewd political move. Get all the benefits of the government’s u-turn…extract CDU concessions in the form of increased money to CDU constituent German weapons manufacturers…extract cuts to social programs that CDU hates, thus forcing the Center-Left SPD and Greens to take hits to existing political capital to their base, pushing them to the Die Linke, which won't get enough support to ever govern…solidify the natural CDU/CSU link with the FDP, essentially backing them as a CDU stalking horse in the existing coalition, with FDP knowing that they will likely be the next coalition partner once the early elections come. And finally, showing himself to be the big dog when it comes to “adults in the room governance.” I’ll put it this way…the big takeaway from the speeches so far as been Merz’s control of the situation, and Baerbock’s sudden change of her hochdeutsch accent to a newly found Berliner accent.
  11. German talking head this morning said that 30% of those reserves are in gold and that last reports (about 6 months ago) showed exposure to sanctions on Russian Central Bank to be about 40% of total reserves. Commentator said that had likely gotten much smaller over the last 6 months though. Estimate from the expert was current exposure less than 20% of the 650B. Not sure about all that, as I’m bad at economics and worse at maf, but that’s what the dude said.
  12. Yeah. It's a significant gap. That was the deal for German approval (but also quietly for the US, which needs it to pay for a bunch of oil that from what I understand it will still import from Russia). Germany said it wouldn't do SWIFT removal if they couldn't still directly pay for Russian gas, so they carved out the banks that were required to that end. Or in the words of Baerbock today, 12:08 p.m. "The exclusion of Russia on SWIFT has been designed to hit putin and not fall back on us like a boomerang."
  13. Perhaps it is just me, but good, informative up-to-date maps in this thing have been more difficult to find than I would have imagined. Here is a good one to serve as reference as y'all start y'alls days. Curious what the status within Kherson proper is...looks like they are now to Mykolayiv, and there have been reports of operations in and oround Odesa. I think cutting off the UA in a kessel in the East looks to be far too ambitious, so I would imagine his immediate plans are to try to salvage this fiasco to some degree by taking the entirety of the Ukrainian Black Sea coast. But you military dudes know more about how feasible that is than I do.
  14. Yep. And the heavyhandedness of an extensive, Ukraine-wide attack is what did it. Had he kept it to the Donbass, the Germans would have been very unlikely to go this far. But this was just too much and way too visible in social media for them to take half-steps. And, given his statements re European defense production that I mentioned above, it is going to be really interesting to watch German defense industry. With this announcement, Germany will now have the largest military budget in Europe and they are going to expect to spend as much as possible of that here.
  15. No problem. The self-laudatory tone in the Bundestag speeches today has been truly something to behold. As though they were true leaders every step of the way. And thank you for not including tasty deutsches Bier in this statement. There are some lines that cannot be crossed, regardless of the poor behavior of the German government.
  16. LOL...Putin Making German Military Spending Great Again. Scholz announces an additional 100 billion euros for the Bundeswehr The Bundeswehr is to receive 100 billion euros from the federal budget via a special fund for investments and armaments projects. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) also announced in his government statement that Germany will invest more than two percent of gross domestic product in defense in the future. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has announced a massive increase in military spending in response to the Russian attack on Ukraine. The federal budget 2022 should be provided once with a special fund of 100 billion euros for "necessary investments and armaments projects," Scholz said in his government statement on Sunday in the Bundestag. He added: "From now on, we will invest more than two percent of gross domestic product in our defense year after year." Previously, Scholz had once again sharply attacked Russia's President Vladimir Putin and described him as a "warmonger". His actions are "inhumane, contrary to international law, cannot be justified by anything or anyone." He wants to wipe an independent country off the world map, which is an "infamous violation of international law." Purtin is isolated from the entire international community. Only with the emergency brake of his veto could Moscow - after all a permanent member of the Security Council - prevent its own conviction. What a shame," said Scholz, almost emotional for his circumstances. Putin "created a new reality on Thursday through his invasion of Ukraine. This requires an answer - we gave it." And he justified the decision to supply weapons now: "There could be no other answer to Putin's aggression." https://www.welt.de/eilmeldung/article237180045/Scholz-kuendigt-100-Milliarden-Euro-zusaetzlich-fuer-Bundeswehr-an.html Edit to include interesting Scholz statement from the speech to the Bundestag: Germany must now work in coordination with France to develop advanced fighter jets for the Europeans. These should be built in Europe.
  17. Social Democratic Party of Deutschland. Gerhard Schröder is the former SPD Chancellor of Germany (the dude that was opposed to Iraq War 2). He left office and became the head of Nord Stream AG and is chairman of the board of Rosneft, Russia's largest oil company. He is the reason NS1 exisists and is very, very close with Putin. Putin was at (one of) his weddings. They used to call him Audi Man, because he had been married four times (4 rings)...now they call him Olympic Man, because he is on wife no 5.
  18. And SIAP, but the SPD has now formally called on Schröder to formally sever all business ties with Russia. That is how toxic Russia support is at the moment. This markes the de-russification of the SPD, which has been in place since the early 1970s. Putin has in 3 days self-inflicted a fatal shotgun blast into the head of all the political equity that he had in Germany that would have typically taken years to occur naturally. This will go down as one of the worst, worst miscalculations that a autocrat has made since...well, the last time a dude with an army tried to head through Ukraine with a conquering itch.
  19. To say that the current government is falling into line due to a true change of heart is completely unknown at this time. It could be a couple of things. What is clear is that they are not operating together and are flailing to grab something that doesn’t paint them in a light of being complicit with Russia…as if that train hasn’t left the station already. The German government is being absolutely blasted on all sides and Scholz is not one who knows how to handle it the way Merkel would. As of the time of my last post this morning, I couldn’t possibly keep up with all the different statements, u-turns, climb-downs that are currently going on in Berlin. As well as arguments between the governing parties, and within the actual parties themselves. Bases are yelling at leadership, leadership is positioning against members of their bases. And it hasn’t been reported on, but I can say for an absolute fact that there have been early discussions today on an emergency moratorium on the planned closing of the 3 remaining nuclear plants in Germany. I know this. Of course, that is a drop in the bucket given the energy crisis that the country is facing, but it is significant in the sense that the Government fully anticipates the gas and coal deliveries to immediately stop in the very near future. Now whether that is a result of a potential SWIFT removal or just a byproduct of the war, who knows….but it is clearly something that is being anticipated. And it should be worth noting…as of the time I started writing this post, which is 5:40 PM CET, Germany has not agreed on the SWIFT piece (at least not that I have seen). That is something that is floating around the media, but FDP Chief and head of the German Finance Ministry, Christian Lindner, said last night that he would “be open to it if it could be done correctly”, but Scholz has not stated this. So, in that light, what might be happening here is that the Government is going to give on everything (the big German Industry group that backs NS2 just a few minutes ago made a statement that they see it as permanently dead, and not just “on hold”, which is essentially the final death blow), including weapons, but is doing everything it can NOT to give on SWIFT. The government knows that SWIFT will end up killing the economy here and will certainly result in the end of Russian gas and coal. Mrs. Shady is smart as hell, but doesn’t give much of a fuck about politics. But she is very, very typical German and essentially has the mainstream centrist views of a successful professional, so I always see her as a pretty good guide to their thinking. We were just now talking about snap election procedures within the Bundestag and how that would possibly play out down the road, and she said, “Meh. It’s too early for them. It would be just too much uncertainty given what is going on everywhere else…they can’t afford to add that on the people at the moment.” Before I could even comment in response she then said, “….oh, well unless the power goes…then they are all fucked.” I think she is right…it would take a while to play out given the German constitution, but the wheels towards new elections would start turning if the power goes. So in that light, I think the Government knows it is behind the international momentum and Scholz is making a last Hail Mary not to have to go to the Swift option…because it is going to absolutely change all equations within German politics. And as an aside…there is a weird, weird feeling here at the moment. It is wayyyyyy too quiet coming out of Berlin. I think they know that this thing is about to expand and that we might be facing a man who is fully prepared to go out with a bang. Lots of uncertainty in the air and a lot of nerves.
  20. I honestly don’t know why they didn’t send one of the Bundeswehr’s ferocious rented ADAC helicopters to extricate him. Must have been needed to assist with a car accident on the A8 autobahn. Seriously though, the coverage on this BND debacle has been all over the news this AM…it is quite simply the cherry on top of repeated and open incompetence on the part of every element of the German military/intel/security services. I get fresh bread early every Saturday morning for the week for us, as well as for my in-laws. I drop it off at their place as soon as I leave the bakery and when I walked in this morning the first thing my father-in-law said was, “*derisive snort* Did you hear about this BND shitshow yet? What a joke we have become.” I have a lot to say on this, as we are in the middle of a huge internal mess brewing in Berlin, and I am going to write on this over the weekend when I have time. But essentially, every single federal minister has permanent Eli Manning Dumbface at the moment, and the only one who could theoretically come in and make an immediate impact wrt strong leadership, CDU chief Friedrich Merz, doesn’t see a political benefit in making any move to trigger snap electons in order to handle this shitshow when it is certainly eroding the support of all of his political opponents. Politically speaking, he is deriving way too many benefits by letting this slowly play out. But he may not have a choice over the next few months. In short, the Federal Government is white-knuckle-governing at the moment and it fucking shows. In fact, the SPD and their coalition partner Free Democrats are arguing in the media this very fucking morning about whether more money should be spent on the Bundeswehr…I mean, you don’t have to be a warmonger to answer this question in the affirmative when the fucking head of the military says, “Uh, yeahhh....we couldn’t defend ourselves in any type of war.” It is a complete clusterfuck unfolding…one that has long been simmering, but that hasn’t been in the main discourse. What Your’s Truly predicted weeks ago here in Surly’s hallowed halls of Dickbutt, Sugar Babies, and Vic’s Voluptuous Vixens, is, as of today, now being openly discussed by the main media outlets. Specifically, that the existing coalition is already on the verge of fracturing if they do not do a complete overhaul of their entire approach to governing, and more specifically, scuttle their entire environmental policy as outlined in the Coalition Agreement. Which, even in light of what is going on with Ukraine, will be extremely difficult for them to actually do. If this recalibration was driven by something outside of energy politics, it miiiiiight be doable. But I just can’t see that happening in this situation. The rank and file of the Greens, and also to a large degree the SPD, are too emotionally committed to the idea of a Germany driven by an energy policy that simply does not exist. It is part and parcel of their entire political- and to a large degree, their personal - identity. At least for now, the Germans must have Russian gas. And to move away from that, the usage of coal must increase and the u-turn on shutting down the remaining nuclear plants must occur. There is no magic bullet. As multiple people on this board have correctly noted, German’s are unable to react quickly. Stubborn obstinance is engrained in their individual and collective psyche and they are quite simply shellshocked right now.
  21. I was one who definitely underestimated Zelensky coming into this thing. And I’m here to eat some crow. Dude is a fucking gangster. As Brisket said upthread, this was a role this dude came into this world to play.
  22. You'd have a better chance of killing a russian with the 5,000 helmets.
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