I'm not a bull by any means, I have modest holdings and will be buying this decline soon not sure the entry point, catching a falling knife is hard.
I don't think that analysis takes into consideration the long term sentiment by some really well regarded wall streeters on BTC, it doesn't take into consideration the early stage and growing adoption through ETFs and retirement plans, the basic supply and demand issues either. I read some analysis that the folks selling right now are new to the trade (last 3 years) and that there are still some very large investors that are just simply holding. there is fierce resistance around 98,000 and so it is very likely a new ATH is not coming soon. There are short term and mid term technical trade issues that may cause additional drops and keep it under that 98,000 number. There is also a lot of fear re BTC right now because of this recent drop (Warren Buffett's investing advice comes to mind), but the macro reasons to like BTC for a long term hold store of wealth, appreciating value, are all still there.
btw none of that math looks terribly broken to me. you can still make over 3x your spend according to his math. he's also laughably wrong about mining being a contagion for a global economic collapse. the economic collapse if one is coming is due to currency issues, tariffs, soft labor market with inflationary pressure, and the AI funny math with the big chip makers financing their own revenue.
But for miners and chip purchases, the high end, AI semi industry is what is driving half of all GDP growth but that also includes all the companies trying to create new AI products and services. We all know those companies - off the top of my head companies I've watched for AI related reasons (excluding hardware mfgs) - palantir, snowflake, confulent, datadog, databricks, meta, amazon, alphabet, microsoft, etc. etc. there's no reliable data out there but miners appear to account for 25% of all chip sales (which is low, mid and high end chips) but that's not the market driver, the high end AI GPUs are the drivers and I don't think the miners have anything close to a large share of the high end NVIDA and AMD chips.
His cash is king comment is equally as funny. Yes that's true, but cash is eroding at a hideous rate right now if you think about the complacency among those who can have an impact on inflation. staying in cash is stupid. gold is up 53% this year. Silver is up 70% this year. Cash? purchasing power of cash has declined almost 3% and that's assuming inflation data is accurate. certainly one can invest cash in cash equivalents, yay, we made 1% this year on cash.
Basically, he's kind of an idiot.
Haters are always going to hate and they will be out in force right now, but nothing going on right now has an impact on the 5-10 year outlook and frankly the economic collapse that may occur should drive many to gold, silver, cash and BTC, not the other way around.