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  1. Hey J with the Tua injury let me know if you wanna cancel the bet. I think that decreases the chances that they put Bama in which wasn’t my point in the bet. Totally fine keeping action of course but wanted to give you the option.
  2. Nah it runs out 3-5 and I lose to wheel.
  3. Sure, that's fair. Booked for $20!
  4. A9 is really close here. I’m folding A5 and not folding AJ. And against most mouthbreathers I feel solid at going with A9. But for a player willing to fold AK on AKQ to make this very strong move I think we are gonna be beat a lot. This smells like 55. I don’t think this guy is bombing J9 here. I slightly lean fold.
  5. The turn action doesn’t make sense. You have yourself acting between the blinds and then the SB folding to BB raise before you act on it.
  6. Sure $20 sounds great. Let me know what you were thinking on the wrinkle.
  7. Stop with the histrionics. Bama isn’t getting in over a 0 or 1 loss P5 champ. The B12 is respected more than ACC or PAC. PAC has missed 3 straight playoffs. B12 currently has 50% of its teams in the playoff rankings. ACC currently has 7% of its teams in the rankings. Get a grip.
  8. *berth. And by that logic you should bet the money line for every single underdog. After all, no one can say who will win any game, so you’re getting odds on a 50/50 proposition! Free money!!!
  9. Largely agree tho I think a 12-1 Minn that beats tOSU in the B1G title game is locked in.
  10. i actually don't hate barrelling 22 there. I think it's very hard for 33-99 to call flop, and he often will fold gutshots. Turn he folds most jacks, all gutshots, all other pairs. It's funny b/c I feel like normally you wanna barrel more than I do.
  11. Disagree that beating Washington and Oregon would equal three wins over Baylor and Texas plus wins over Oklahoma State and Iowa State. Oregon is a better win than those 5, but those 5 are all better/equal to Washington, and OU would have 5 good wins compared to 2. And you're being a bit silly on the "chickenshit". Playing Houston and at UCLA as 2 of your 3 games is significantly above P5 average for OOC scheduling. I botched the UCLA, they had 6 of the last 7 before this year, in glancing at it I thought the "blank" for 2018 was for 2019. OU entered the agreement to play UCLA in Nov. 2013. UCLA went 9-5 in 2012 and 10-3 in 2013 and appeared to be on the rise under Mora. Mora was a hot name for other jobs. You're being disingenous with that. Houston has had a winning record 12 of the last 14 seasons. That series was announced in 2014, Houston was 26-13 the 3 years preceding the announcement. KSU hasn't lost to ISU, they haven't played. Also USC got absolutely boatraced by Oregon in a way KSU hasn't yet. And BYU is dramatically worse than any KSU loss. So USC's 3 good losses roughly equal KSU's 3 as far as teams played, with only USC getting murdered, and also USC adding a shit loss.
  12. Don't get me wrong, it isn't likely, it was more for illustrative purposes. And I'm not rock-solid sure what the Sugar Bowl selection process for the SEC team is (I know the B12 champ goes if they don't go to playoff, and if B12 champ goes to playoff, B12 title game loser must go to Sugar, no options). And yeah, it would involve Alabama worming into the playoff lol. Georgia loses to Auburn and Aggy, LSU over UF in SEC title game, 2 loss conference champs elsewhere, or a 12-1 B12 champ Baylor. Not really fair to say OU went chickenshit on the OOC. They played a team that has been a top G5 team, and a road game against a P5 team that's been bowl-eligible 6 of the last 7 seasons and is solid traditional team. They can't control that they both are quite a bit below average this year. That said, they have the schedule they have, and you can ding them for it, but can't really call it chickenshit. I mean, would scheduling @Minnesota have actually been any more "gutsy" than @UCLA? I also would say both KSU and Texas are above "mediocre" and KSU is better than USC, come on. What do you think would give Utah a better resume than OU if both win out? OU would likely have 4 ranked wins, with Utah having 1, with OU having a solid chance at their loss being ranked, and Utah's unranked. Have fun at UGA-Auburn!
  13. FPI has Florida's defensive efficiency at 11. Huck's Adjusted Stats has it at 12. Both metrics and Sagarin have UF as a top 12 team overall. For Kentucky, they absolutely will make a bowl. And they do have 3 gimme games, I don't think Louisville, while obv not elite, counts as a gimme game, they are still in the top third of a "P5" conference. Unless you meant Arkansas, so yeah, ha. Regardless, I will bet you significant cash they make a bowl. They have a better chance of winning out than of losing 2 of their last 3. EDIT: A scenario exists where Florida plays Baylor in the Sugar Bowl this year. What do you think the line on that game would be? You happily taking Baylor?
  14. I don't generally like this phrasing "would beat." I think Florida would be a dog to OU, equal to Baylor, slight favorite over Texas, KSU, OSU, ISU, solid favorite over Tech and TCU, big favorite over WVU and KU. I would pick Florida over Washington on a neutral field, and think they are probably better than Iowa and worse than Wisky. I don't think Miami, UK and USCe are quite as bad as you think. I also think a team like Florida (strong D, mediocre O) will have struggle games more often, because the games are lower scoring. I think Baylor is a really good analogue for Florida.
  15. Nah, several of those teams wouldn't be favored over UGA on a neutral field. Also, Utah and Oregon DEFINITELY don't have a better win than UF, and OU arguably doesn't. If anyone asked you prior to the Penn State game, would you have said Minnesota was better? Minnesota isn't better. PSU threw 3 red zone picks. Minnesota won the game, which is awesome for them, and it counts in the standings. If they can back it up with 4 more, they will and should be in the playoffs. If Minnesota-Penn State happens in the B1G title game, PSU will be favored again. The last hand of poker I played, if you asked me prior to the hand which is better AQ or A9, I would have said AQ. My AQ lost. I still say AQ is better than A9. If a team is expected to beat another 60% of the time, the fact that the other team won doesn't mean the 60% figure was incorrect.
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