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bad_teammate last won the day on February 20

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  1. Of course. The only thing separating Joe from my vote is him saying that he would veto progressive legislation. All he has to do is say he won't do that and I'll slam the Biden button in the voting booth in November. Am disturbed that he's probably a rapist? Sure, as long as you can give me some level of plausible deniability I'm going to vote for him anyway. Worried that he's mentally degrading? Just give me a few cogent performances and have Trump talk on TV a few times. Knowing full god damned well he will sell everything there is to corporate interests? Fine, I'm used to it. Will certainly maintain or accelerate both the eternal wars abroad and internal wars against crime and drugs? Fuck it, there's nothing new here. We're the easy marks.
  2. Chuckie speaking truth. There's nothing really that matters in terms of mass media/mass culture now that the narrative has coalesced around Joe. I don't think the bar is lowering, though, I think the idea of the bar has always been an illusion and Trump shattered that illusion.
  3. Biden is going to end up endorsing Trump outright during a debate.
  4. They'll never pull the rug out from under Joe. If they were going to do that they wouldn't have united behind him so forcefully after South Carolina. They're all-in. The Cuomo talk is just the same nervous liberals who tried to boost Pete and Liz.
  5. Youth vote has been up overall. As the actual numbers show us, they are getting up and voting by the millions. Not enough to propel Sanders to victory, but they aren't a statistically insignificant population. I don't know who Cuomo excites that isn't already a lock for Joe.
  6. Maybe we should have a "fuck b_t" thread so actual discussion related to Joe Biden can happen here? I'll pos-rep the person who starts it. You should at least pretend to be interested in being on topic.
  7. I realize, David, that you're just a hurt feelings troll like henry and jimmy and mdmost (and others), but I think it's useful go ahead and use your collective whining as a springboard for real discussion about actual data. Popular vote so far in the 2020 Democratic Primary: Biden: 10.1M (1168 delegates) Sanders: 7.7M (884 delegates) Sanders is clearly losing by a statistically significant margin. A functionally-insurmountable deficit, in fact. However, we're still talking about many many millions of voters who turned out to vote and are winnable in the 2020 general, if we care about actually winning and not just being a bitch on the Internet.
  8. Specifically trying to win over Sanders->Trump voters isn't the easy route to voters, because their motivations are nebulous and, generally, unamenable to reason. It's easy to focus on them in some kind of attempt to supplant one's own lack of beliefs with rage and superiority, but as a bloc they aren't terribly reachable. The non-voters and third-party voters is who you go after. The non-voters, especially, are (relatively) easy, just listen to what they want and give it to them. I think that if all Joe is prepared to do to win over young voters is say, "Come on, man, Trump is bad" then he's not going to get them to turn out.
  9. Voters are enigmatic. The policy-first voter is not in the majority. Hell, we're obsessed with politics here and half of us (or more) don't actually have any clear and consistent policy beliefs. Class loyalty, race loyalty, hurt feelings, spite, how TV ads make them feel... a ton of reasons voters change preferred candidates or make voting decisions in the booth. We have people here who went into the booth for this primary and just waited for a feeling to make choices. It's one of the reasons that super-low enthusiasm is bad.
  10. This is not good. Insanely low enthusiasm among his supporters. Also, relevant to this conversation, this poll shows 15% of Sanders supporters going to Trump. Lower than I would expect at this particular point in a hot primary, honestly. I would've expected a contraction to that 10-15% I mentioned in my earlier post to happen at the convention when some unity starts being built. Hopefully that's a good sign that the contraction will <10%? That low enthusiasm will make the non-voter portion rise, though.
  11. Right now I'd bet that Trump will probably get 10-15% of Bernie primary voters. A whole lot depends on how the next 7+ months go; whether or not Biden and his team make efforts to win them, whether or not the media establishment maintains its current course, etc... A chunk of Bernie primary voters will just not vote at all. Bernie generates enthusiasm among traditionally non-voting and traditionally not-loyal-to-Democrats bases (young people, Latinos, etc...) and, as of now, they are absolutely not going to make a special effort to turn out for Joe. I bet this is the most fluid range and could be extremely high (relatively). A third party candidate will likely rise up at some point (Stein or otherwise) and get a small percentage of Bernie primary voters. Is it possible for Joe to get 90% of Bernie primary voters who actually show up to vote in November? Sure. That's a best case scenario and would require a lot of things to go right for Joe. The Bernie->Trump voter # is probably fixed ~10-15%. But third party and non-voting? That shit could skyrocket if Joe doesn't do a good job. But many here seem very confident that this doesn't matter and Joe has it in the bag, so be heartened. --- Regarding "90%", I'm not even going to engage with an argument that you just made up out of thin air to get mad at. Quote me saying that and I'll respond to my own actual argument and not your pique-induced trolling campaign of just lying outright to start fights.
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