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Laxtonto

Burnt Ends
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  1. Big boy toys come with big boy intel and big boy systems for target hierarchy and ordnance deployment systems. This is no slight against the Ukrainians, but if we are going to believe that this level of complex multilayered systematic targeting is being done solely by the Ukrainians without outside assistance, well …… We are seeing the future (well our top end systems from probably the 2010s with current satellite and comm integration) of how warfare can be conducted at the acquisition and planning level with much more real-time intelligence gathering with a much broader automated targeting filter in a “civilized” part of the world. Technology is a scary thing, especially when people have the training and will to use it to its potential.
  2. So we are now to the point that 1) the operational radius of missile strikes have increased due to a reduction in SAM coverage due to the need of those unites either closer to the front and/or them being in limited availability and 2) we have moved on from ammo, critical infrastructure, and command structure to now airfields. Think of each SAM battery as a forward facing arc that covers a limited footprint. Those footprints layer to an extent and so the further something goes, the more of those zones of fire it encounters. As the ones on the front are neutralized and they are a limited resource the smart play is to transfer some of those from the rear (that theoretically the least likely targets due to distance, forward coverage and time delayed on reconnaissance) towards the front to do everything you can to protect the necessities to keep the war machine running at the front. It will be extremely telling if this is just a one off, like the successful attack on Cruiser or if it becomes a regular part of the rotation. If they can lob their less sophisticated long range munitions and consistently hit the Crimea, then that means they in effect have very very limited SAM cover and are stripping the rear to help protect the front. The other thing to track would be what is the target mix of these long range shots and how frequently do they focus on ammo and fuel vs command infrastructure and airfields. If they move away from ammo and fuel, that generally implies that the lag time from deliveries there to the front is now so long that the other systems will wipe them out at their staging location on the way to the front. Use the long range attacks as a barometer of what they can’t get to see he front fast enough. If they have blanketed the front to the point that they have faith that anything that gets to the front in mass they can easily target, then there is no need to waste the long range shots on those targets (unless there is something that they can’t say no to) and instead will be targeting air, command infrastructure, and targets of increased political and propaganda value. Make no mistake, if this is actually a Ukrainian ordnance and not from the tree HIMARS and this happens on the regular basis, then the Russian forces are in way worse shape than we think.
  3. Curious if there is other stuff he's done in the AD, a la Zach Smith, that would make all parties involved look like complete shit if it came out if the university did an investigation. Better to resign to "not be a distraction" than to be fired for cause after making everyone look like assholes for not letting him go well beforehand.
  4. I go back and forth about how willing the RU is of blowing bridges. On one hand, they want to do everything in their power to make sure that the Ukrainian advance stops at the Dnipro river. To this effect, I would be willing to be the RU already has secondary positions dug on the other side of the river to help limit any potential fording or bridging attempt in the coming weeks. The other argument is that after the disastrous fording/pontoon bridging attempts made in this campaign it is blatantly obvious that the RU engineers cannot meet the task of getting a large force over the river now with the Ukrainians having much more precision-guided artillery (and MLRS but that is probably overkill for what needs to be done) with continual drone surveillance means that the only way to potential counter-attack and retake Kherson is over the bridges. So if they ever want to retake the city after this (which is a vital lynchpin in their initial advance) they need the bridges (and can just like the Ukrainians just set it up with charges and zero it in with artillery as a backup) and as such make it obvious that they will blow the bridges later if the Ukrainian arms tries to rush over it. Bridges are crazy assets in a wartime scenario that most people just gloss over. Getting a massively heavy armored vehicle over a body of water is incredibly difficult and so if you just just highlight the deep water rivers on the western Ukraine map you can essentially see the front...
  5. Well, I am pretty sure that they can't really hide that all of the sudden ammo and supplies are running short and for some reason who is in charge keeps changing. The reason why might not be something that is directly talked about, but I bet each squad on the front has somebody that is tech-savvy enough to be getting outside of the RU internet/news. That is the nature of that age group. They are dying for news from the other side just to have validation of what the scuttlebutt going around is. The real question is not are they young guys hearing about it, but are the older conscripts going to go along with the idea of of retreating/giving up/ returning home or are they going to be the glue that helps hold the troops together.
  6. What I find so weird is that I wrote the SOP out like a week or so ago on here of what was going to be the target list with the extended range of the HIMARS MLRS and the Ukrainian military bloggers have pretty much documented each stage for the world to see. So either this is one of the biggest head fakes in the world and they are going to make a push elsewhere or they want everyone to know what is coming and are giving those troops every possible option to retreat/give up/ return home to make the offensive both move a bit quicker and to also limit casualties to both sides. Regardless of how much disarray the RU command structure is in or how low on ammo and supplies the troops are, the offensive will be bloody being that it is going to be urban warfare...
  7. So they have hit the ammo dumps and supply bases. Then the command structure, then now the bridges… This is textbook for an offensive and if I was a Russian commander I would find any reason I could not to be in the their HQ the next few days because that is the other textbook thing to hit once as the offensive becomes underway…
  8. Well he forgot to get rid of the part were his source is the guy who is setting up virtual meeting in some way or other in the WVU AD/President suite… Not too many people that could be… This is why the idea of a source and then text messages are so insanely scary. All it takes someone seeing something and somebody gets burned.
  9. How many of those numbers that the article is based on actually balances what time slot the games were aired and who they were up against. What surprises me is that Oregon doesn't have better numbers, considering the success they have had over the years in question. These numbers are probably the best rosy approximation they can find, just like many of the B12 versions we have seen. The issue is that 1, without USC and UCL the P12N may lose all of its carriage deals again without the big boys anchoring LA and 2, neither of these sets of schools makes it worthwhile for the big players to overpay for the TV deal, when instead they can just expand to include one more major SEC and B10 games a week instead. I got a bad feeling that both groups will be underwhelmed with the offered TV deals by the major networks and we will see both explore more digital-only or hodgepodge deals instead.
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