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Somnio

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Everything posted by Somnio

  1. Ok. We all know RO, mortality, etc. can change depending on location, weather, and many other factors. However, my numbers are based off of the data available. When people say 10-20% serious cases, or 2% mortality rate nobody cries foul, but when you put an actual number of people that end up in the hospital or dead they get upset. Regardless, the point remains, even extremely conservative numbers based off of the data available would lead to drastically higher hospitalizations and deaths than the 2009 H1N1 data you posted. That is why people are making a bigger deal out of this pandemic.
  2. 59million caught it. 265,000 were hospitalized for it. 12,000 deaths from it I think because if there end up being 59 million Covid-19 cases in the US, the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths would dwarf those 2009 H1N1 numbers unless the data I've seen is incorrect. I won't post the numbers, cuz people don't like numbers.
  3. You have to wonder how many of the "flu" cases the last few months were actually Covid-19.
  4. Yep. Best article I've read thus far that sums up what we may be facing.
  5. A few other tidbits.... President Woodrow Wilson released no public statements. Surgeon General Rupert Blue said, “There is no cause for alarm if proper precautions are observed.” Another top health official, Barry said, dismissed it as “ordinary influenza by another name.” But it wasn’t. The Spanish flu had a mortality rate of 2 percent — much higher than seasonal influenza strains, and similar to some early estimates about the coronavirus. As the pandemic raged through October of that year, Americans could see with their own eyes that the “absurd reassurances” coming from local and national officials weren’t true. This crisis of credibility led to wild rumors about bogus cures and unnecessary precautions, Barry said. The Spanish flu ultimately killed about 50 million people worldwide, including 675,000 people in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Even President Wilson caught it, in the middle of negotiations to end the Great War.
  6. That's lame. It wasn't for me. I'd copy the whole article, but I think I'd be breaking the rules.
  7. *WARNING* If the mention of politicians by name offends your sensibilities do not click on the link. The first wave wasn’t that bad. In the spring of 1918, a new strain of influenza hit military camps in Europe on both sides of World War I. Soldiers were affected, but not nearly as severely as they would be later. Even so, Britain, France, Germany and other European governments kept it secret. They didn’t want to hand the other side a potential advantage. Spain, on the other hand, was a neutral country in the war. When the disease hit there, the government and newspapers reported it accurately. Even the king got sick. So months later, when a bigger, deadlier wave swept across the globe, it seemed like it had started in Spain, even though it hadn’t. Simply because the Spanish told the truth, the virus was dubbed the “Spanish flu.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/02/29/1918-flu-coronavirus-trump/
  8. South Korea timeline (starting with the day the first cluster was detected) :February 19th : 62 cases.February 20th : 111 total cases.February 21st : 209 total cases.February 22nd : 438 total cases.February 23rd : 602 total cases.February 24th : 833 total cases.February 25th : 977 total cases.February 26th : 1,261 total cases.February 27th : 1,766 total cases.February 28th : 2,337 total cases.February 29th : 3,159 total cases.
  9. Did these family members who are doctors disclose to you what they know about this virus which the average public do not? Have they done research? I'm just curious if what they told you is an "expert" opinion, or their personal opinion.
  10. Come on man! I'm sure you're a smart guy. 50 Million out of 1.5 Billion vs. 100 Million out of 7.5 Billion All your talk of regression and shit is a straw man, and you know it. I also know you've been in this discussion long enough to know that much of our advancement in healthcare over the last century will mean jackshit if there are hundreds of millions in need of intensive care. This planet does not have the ability to take care of everyone who will need it if this continues spreading like wildfire.
  11. Not picking on you, but this is why I posted my non-expert projections. I hardly see either one of them as "sky is falling". I just have not seen one other mention of what even a relatively minor pandemic would actually mean in human lives. 100 million deaths in a global pandemic with 7.5 billion plus people on the planet? Umm, that's not "doomsday", "apocalyptic", or "sky is falling" level. Not to beat a dead horse, but Spanish Flu killed 50 Million and infected 500 million when the Earth only had 1.5 Billion people. I'm not talking Black Death numbers here. I'm not taking extinction level event. I hope it doesn't turn out badly, but I've been watching this for over a month now, and this is not like anything anyone has seen for the last century. This is not like Ebola or Sars 1.0
  12. Another less pessimistic projection phrased differently still with many millions of deaths: This is all a bunch of overhyped bullshit. The vast majority of people won't even catch it! Even if they do it's not even serious for all but a small percentage! And even if you do catch it, and it turns into a serious case, you're more than likely not going to die! It really is not a big deal! Now let's rehash that.... The vast majority of people won't even catch it! (80% won't catch it! That means "only" 1.5 Billion cases) Even if they do it's not even serious for all but a small percentage! (It's really not any worse than the flu for 90%! That means "only" 150 Million need to be in the hospital.) And even if you do catch it, and it turns into a serious case, you're more than likely not going to die! (99 out of 100 of those infected live to see another day! This is hardly even worse than the flu! Stop panicking! That means "only" 15 Million deaths.)
  13. If you say so. I've seen projections calling for far more than 1/3 getting this virus. I've seen 20% needing hospitalization said by many sources. Maybe only 20% catch it, and only 10% of those need to be in a hospital. Punch in the numbers, its still millions of deaths. I know it's shocking to consider, but what I posted is not as absurd as you seem to think.
  14. My new projection is 2.5 billion infected, with 20% needing hospitalization. Obviously there are not enough hospitals in the world for 500 million patients. Unfortunately this will cause the death rate to rise substantially higher, though the virus itself will not inherently be anymore dangerous. Our health care system will simply be unable to cope. So, I believe the total deaths will end up being around 100 million worldwide. These numbers would mean it infected the same percentage of the world's population as Spanish Flu (1/3), but have a substantially lower death rate (4% vs 10%). Who the fuck am I to make such projections? Nobody. But I believe we are at the beginning of a very dark time, and the numbers I posted while shocking are very fucking possible. Hopefully I'm full of shit, and it just disappears any day now like a miracle.
  15. Everyone's already dead. Sorry to break the news. RIP everybody.
  16. Of course China will survive. But it is not out of the realm of possibility this could be this century's Spanish Flu, which infected 1/3 of the world's population, and killed 50 million. At the same percentages with the current population you'd be looking at 2.5 Billion infections, and 250 Million deaths. I do not believe we will see numbers that extreme, certainly not in the number of deaths. However, it would not be necessary for it to be that bad for this to be an unmitigated disaster on a global scale. Yes that is possible, and yes people are panicking. But not for lack of a reason. This is probably going to get really bad.
  17. I sat through it. There were huge rocks and debris all over the SB lanes. All traffic was funneled on to the inside shoulder. It was horrid.
  18. I'm considering not paying my bills this month, and blowing it on hookers and blow. I did that for Ebola, and it didn't work out very well. Maybe I should hold off another month.
  19. Makes you question all of the supposedly previously infected who are now listed as "Recovered".
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