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CBT

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by CBT

  1. I said that 2 years ago when everyone was praising Curry when he was hitting those shots. It was unsustainable and bad basketball


    So you’re telling me an offense that has a high % of 3PA is high variance? No way.
  2. That gives me a little pause. You don't see someone overbet twice that often in such a short period of time. Could be two super strong hands or he could be a lagtard.

    Turn donk could be a flush draw, but 1/2 villains don't usually don't like to do it on a paired board, especially with it being an ace. If he has any positional awareness he knows you have all the good Aces ([x] put you on AK), and you having the Jd blocks some of his flush draws.

  3. 32 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

    Played a short cash session last night and had another fun river decision. 

    BACKGROUND HANDS
    I've been at the table about 45 minutes, and fairly recently won a pretty gross pot:  guy limps, I raise to $12 with KThh, 3 calls, limper jams for $62.  I have about $170 effective.  I think all options are good/bad.  I think the limper can be pretty wide, since the pot is almost his stack size, he can jam wide, it gets through a lot, and if he gets called, he is almost getting 2:1 on his money.  I consider just folding, I consider jamming to isolate, but decide to do what is probably the worst, which is call.  My thought at the time was that the other players likely fold, so now I'm getting 2.2:1 on my money against a wide range, and if they re-jam, I know I'm in trouble.  The problem is that at that point, I'm still getting a great price, and may induce the re-jam by calling.  In retrospect I think jam>fold>>>>call.  One other guy, who was a bad button-clicker, called.  Pot $210, 3 players, 1 allin.  Flop QT7ssc.  I check, he bets $40, I call.  Turn 3c. I check, he bets $55, I had about $65 left and just stick it in, and he calls and says "hit me dealer".  River 5d, I flip up my KT, he shows 88, limp-jammer folds what he says is AK and I scoop.

    Few minutes later, I open J9 to $10 in LP, 3 calls.  Flop KQ5, I cbet $20, guy is allin for $21 total, I call and lose to his QJ.

    HAND IN QUESTION
    10 minutes later, I go $10 UTG with AhJd, 3 calls.  Flop AQ6dd.  I cbet $20, only the BB calls. Pot $80. Turn A.  BB bets $40.  I call here.  Obviously he can have lots of draws, but raising here takes away his bluffs and worse hands. Pot $160. River 8x. BB stacks up all of his chips in a tower and shoves for $275.  Villain is a regular who has been talking lots of poker, including bragging about stacking a guy 3 times the night before, with one being snapcalling AA on 743 flop for $500 and sucking out on 43. I have seen him do the stack all his chips overbet river jam once before in this session, jamming about $200 over a $20 river bet into $50 or so on 876Q4.  I remember thinking at the time that the overbet there seemed horrible unless he had T9. It's great with T9, because a 5 just won't ever fold.  But if he overjammed with just the 5, you just make everything you beat fold, and get stacked off the times you are beat.

    So, facing a bet of $275 into $160, holding AhJd on AdQc6d As 8h. WUG?

     

     

    With that description of villain, and that line he took, it's a boat 99% of the time in a 1/2 game. 

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