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Posts posted by Hank Chinaski
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7 hours ago, Machinator said:
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Regarding Baines, I kinda feel bad for the guy at this point - his induction has been mostly ridiculed since the news broke.
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3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:
then you need to decide on your argument.
either "everyone was doing it" or "he was a hall-of-famer before he started using".
the first one kinda makes me want him to get in with everyone else. the second one says he had a choice, he made it, and now he needs to live with it.
the problem with the first one, is that you can't let him in without letting mcgwire, sosa, clemens, palmeiro, etc all in too. or are we going by suspensions? or admitting to congress? or getting caught lying to congress? see, it's a slippery slope.
my original post was really just responding with why i hate the second argument, and why it actually makes him less deserving in my eyes. he didn't need to use to be great. he chose to, because he was a greedy, self-centered asshole. which is totally fine. i know a lot of greedy, self-centered assholes and they're not in the hall of fame either.
Agree with this, and it's what I hate about the "PED guys." There isn't really an answer. It drove me nuts, as an Astros fan, that Bagwell was consistently lumped in with those guys with absolutely no evidence of anything. Does that mean he was always clean? I have no idea. But that's the point - what is our threshold of evidence for disallowing entrance? What numbers do we dismiss? How do we quantify how much specific PEDs actually help?
I don't have really have an answer. My thought with Bonds is that he was always so much better than everyone else that he is a HOFer. But to your point, it irks me that he seemingly used because he was the preeminent generational talent of my generation, and he ruined it in a way.
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1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:
under that logic, a bank robber who was already rich before he started stealing money shouldn't have to go to jail, right? i mean, why should the rules apply to rich people who just wanted to be a little bit richer?
i've had this exact argument on hornfans and shaggy, so why not here. if the pinnacle of professional sports is to be in the hall of fame, and you knew using steroids could possibly keep you out of the hall of fame, and your career numbers suggest you're already on the proper trajectory, then why fucking use? or, better put, bonds knew what he was potentially giving up when he started using, and he made his choice. he broke records, he got paid tens of millions, and he's not in the hall. he can fucking deal with it.
fringe mlb players who would be selling mufflers, but started using peds and became professional level players - now that i can get behind. but if the argument is "he was a hall-of-famer before he started using", then there's your answer. he had way more to lose, and way more of a reason not to juice, but he did it anyway. he should not be rewarded for this. cherry picking parameters and portions of someone's career sounds like aggie logic right there.
OK - where do we draw lines then? Was it OK to use amphetamines like guys have done forever? There is no question those can be considered PEDs. Bonds was never suspended or in anything but good standing with MLB.
I get your point, and don't disagree fundamentally - but because we can never know who did what (except for the guys who tested positive), the extent to which they did it, or how much any of it helped anyone...we should go by the numbers. And the numbers suggest that Bonds was head and shoulders above his peers for over 15 years, steroids or no steroids.
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7 minutes ago, rickyspub said:
Hyperbole, sure...And yet Murray was upright for the entire season. aggy had only one RB and one QB worth a shit and neither one missed any time. It seems like when we can't afford to lose a player, that is exactly who we lose to injury. Donta is probably the last above average guy we had at RB or QB that manage to play at plus level for an entire season. Colt's 2009 season is probably the last time we had a QB do it.
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3 hours ago, pepper brooks said:
not true. there was proof in court he used steroids. They couldn't prove that he knew he was getting steroids, but there was proof of steroid use.
Yeah, I don't see any justification for Barry Bonds not being elected. He could have retired before the '99 season (when he allegedly began using PEDs) and he was a HOFer. Then he apparently started using and became significantly better than all the other PED users. So deduct 20% of his value from those last few seasons if you want to and he's still an MVP-level player.
I get wanting to discount his numbers for his 2001-2004 seasons, because they were nuts. But he's one of the 10-12 best players in history, regardless.
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20 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:
Weird. Every time I've been to (or near) College Station I've gotten a strange, uncomfortable feeling (even before making my college decision). It's a palpable unpleasantness, like you are sensing that something isn't right.
But that's just me, I guess.
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Yeah, bizarre. Harold Baines? He's certainly not a HOFer by modern metrics. And he doesn't hit any of the traditional statistical thresholds. The highest he ever finished in MVP voting was 9th.
I...yeah...what?
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4 hours ago, HtownHorn said:
Cleveland doesn't care about where they send Kluber with the assets returned are good enough. He's the guy the Astros should target. 3 years of team control, but it will likely take one of Whitley or Tucker. Frankly I'd give up Tucker in the deal. OFs are easy to find.
Maybe. But they're built to win now, with Lindor and Ramirez entering their primes and with the pitching depth they have.
Then again, I am not sure what Cleveland's objective is - they have starting pitching depth, so I understand if they want to swap that to fill holes in the OF or elsewhere. I guess they are trying to shed payroll while remaining competitive, but that's tricky (they'll win their crappy division easily, but they should be looking to remain competitive with HOU, BOS, NYY). Maybe a Tucker-Kluber deal makes sense because Tucker seems more or less MLB ready.
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Olney snippet from today:
SpoilerOn paper, Eovaldi seemed like the perfect fit for the Houston Astros, who have a history of taking pitchers with really good arms and making them better. But the Astros never really engaged on the right-hander, leading to one industry theory that Houston is more locked into the trade market than folks realize and looking to pluck one of the best available starters in a swap -- and right now, the best appear to include Kluber, Bauer, Zack Greinke and Noah Syndergaard.
My guess would be Greinke out of these guys - can't see CLE trading either of those guys to a direct AL competitor, and with the Cano trade in the books, don't see the Mets dealing Syndergaard. Greinke could be had for next to nothing (prospect-wise) if the Astros take on most of his remaining dollars, I'd imagine. Or we could send good prospects if AZ will pay for them (by eating $10-20 million).
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16 minutes ago, ztejas said:
His comp is Neon Deion. Should he choose to stick with baseball - he will have the advantage of focusing on one sport. Deion's best season he slugged .495 with 26 bags and actually led the NL in triples with 14 in just 97 games.
Kyler is TOTALLY capable of that. If you choose to think otherwise and continue to doubt this kid (not saying you are) be my guest. I've seen enough film on him playing football that it wouldn't surprise me if he's a fringe all-star center fielder or golden glove winner in 5-6 years.
Oh yeah, he doesn't get selected that high without the ability to get to that level. To me, that's exactly why he should be playing baseball full-time...because it'll maximize his chance to get to that level, and more quickly.
He has the type of athleticism that could allow him to stay on an MLB roster even if the bat is average, but speed and defense peak early for baseball players. One lower-body injury could diminish his speed/explosiveness. Unless he becomes a good hitter, even some decline in his speed at an early age could make a big difference in his career.
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Man, Andruw Jones seemed like a certain HOFer for a while. He was around 65 WAR with nearly 400 HR through his age-30 season. Then he never played another full season, topping out at 331 PAs in 2009. He was a great, great player in his 20s.
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I really wish voters were required to provide a written explanation for their choices. Many do so anyway, but it should be a requirement. I'd be fascinated to read about the mental gymnastics these guys go through to end up with these selections.
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6 hours ago, Napoleon said:
What did you mean to write?
I'm trying to figure it out, but I'm lost.
Thanks in advance.That was what I meant to write. Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is s stat used to estimate how many runs a player is worth over a season; runs can be converted to team wins. Common parlance among baseball writers is "he was worth x wins" or "had a x-win season." Some variation of WAR is pretty much how all MLB clubs evaluate players. An 8-WAR season is an MVP-caliber year.
It was mentioned that Murray has been compared to Rickey Henderson, who is an inner-circle hall of famer. Murray may have that sort of physical ability, but baserunning isn't just about speed and hitting isn't just about hand-eye coordination. I've contended that Murray is costing himself money by delaying his baseball career; if we are using Rickey fucking Henderson as a comp, it should be noted that Rickey was already an MVP-caliber player at age 21, while Murray was playing football at 21.
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Rickey hit .300 and had an 8-win season in MLB when he was 21 - the same age as Kyler is now. Rickey Henderson was a motherfucking unicorn.
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2 hours ago, closetojumping said:
If he kicks maximum ass, he'll progress through levels at .75 years per level. That's crushing it in the minors. That projects him to the majors at the age of 25. Then he's got 5 or 6 years under the rookie agreement including arbitration. He's likely to be 30-32 when he faces his first free agent agreement. This isn't the 1990's or 2000's in which analytics and age progression played virtually no role in the offering of contracts. Toolsy free agents dependent upon speed in their early 30's get 4 years at $48-$60million if they're excellent. More if they're truly elite. A whole lot less for the vast majority of the rest of the players.
This. It's why spending a year playing football after getting drafted was probably not wise, no matter how well he and his team fared. It's about probability of outcomes - given his stature and each sport's relative risk for career-altering injury, he is more likely to succeed in professional baseball than football. And the money he is likely to earn in baseball, given those two factors and the financial difference between the two sports, far exceeds that of football. As such, every year he delays playing baseball will probably cost him, possibly significantly.
He is a raw baseball player; he was drafted because of his physical tools. Becoming competent at these pro levels takes time, no matter how talented you are. As it is, he'll be starting in 2019 where he should have been starting in 2018. All of this factors into how MLB teams value players.
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7 minutes ago, Gene Parmesan said:
You guys can find the silver lining in anything. That's why I love this place. Here I am all depressed that OU has the top player (top 2 at worst) in the country yet again, and is in the playoffs yet again. But now I can take solace in that maybe Murray hurt his baseball developmental trajectory a little while he was completely dominating college football, and how stupid he is for doing so.
Haha, I'm not trying to shit on the kid. Just saying that, in my opinion, the decision to play football after being draft 12th overall in the MLB draft was dumb...even if it all ends up working out for him, the outcomes don't justify the decision.
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5 minutes ago, ztejas said:
You can't buy a Heisman. Maybe you don't see the instrinsic value in an award like that but it isn't about money.
He'll either be a great baseball player or he won't. A year of spring training isn't going to change that. Transcendent athletes tend to have little issues switching between sports - especially at such a young age.
It's a great honor, he deserves it and he should be proud of it (assuming he wins).
Totally disagree with the second part. He didn't miss "a year of spring training." He missed half a season, plus any fall leagues, of playing pro ball with pro coaches. Which means he delayed his developmental clock. Baseball is not a sport in which athleticism alone determines success; it is skill-based and great athletes fail all the time (see Byron Buxton, Corey Patterson, Jeff Franceour, Bubba Starling, etc - every draft is littered with these guys). The Bo Jacksons and Deion Sanders and Brian Jordans of the world are extraordinarily rare.
So no - he's not going to become a good major league player by playing football instead of baseball. And he isn't that young anymore by baseball standards.
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1 minute ago, Steamboat1874 said:
I am pretty sure he is getting his $4 million dollar bonus by just reporting to the A's.
He is; and then he'll get shit for salary until he is in the big leagues. And even in the big leagues, he'll be on his rookie contract for several years.
That's the point - he could make a shitload of money playing baseball, but the way the economics of the game are structured, guys who are good and young get those huge extensions or contracts while guys whose rookie contracts expire as they're exiting their prime do not. Thus, there is a cost to entering free agency at age 30 rather than 29, for example.
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12 hours ago, ztejas said:
Well... I mean, he's about to win the Heisman, so...
So? Owning a Heisman trophy isn't going to help him learn how to hit curveballs, which will pretty much decide whether he makes $4 million in baseball (his bonus) or tens (or hundreds) of millions of dollars in baseball.
Every year in baseball is important. He's a guy that hasn't ever really devoted himself to the sport and was still the 12th overall pick last summer. He's lost another year playing football in 2018. Baseball doesn't give a shit how well he played college football. And he's not out of the woods yet as far as injuries go.
He'll start his professional baseball career presumably next spring/summer, likely in low-A ball. He turns 22 in August, and he won't enter pro ball as developed as most college guys, which means he'll already be behind the age curve. If everything clicks, he's looking at reaching the big leagues at 24 at the earliest. More likely 25.
None of this is catastrophic for him - he could still be a successful MLB player; my point is that playing football was a bad idea, regardless of awards or honors for his play, because his future is baseball and he has pushed his timeline back a year while risking injury that could directly impact his baseball future.
But the guys that really get paid are those who hit free agency at a younger age (like Harper and Machado this year). Thus, each year you delay, you lose money.
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3 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:
That is wicked.
What amazes me is how he's able to avoid getting viciously tackled, to the point of injury.That's why he's a dumbass for playing football. It only takes one hit. He has avoided injury (thus far) but has at least one more game against some pretty bad ass defensive players. He should have spent this past summer/fall playing baseball, developing and devoting himself to becoming a big leaguer, where his earning potential is fucking enormous.
I'm not rooting for the kid to get hurt, even if he seems like a complete douchebag (I mean - he selected aggy and OU; for Christ sake, what the fuck is wrong with him??); the best way to not get hurt is to not fucking play football.
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Mayfield was a surprise, but I didn't doubt that Murray would excel. I thought (and still think) he was a dumbass for even playing football after getting drafted by the A's in the first round, but I didn't doubt he'd perform well.
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20 hours ago, Scraps said:
Sign Cruz, Brantley, Morton and lets fucking roll
Give me McCutchen instead of Brantley and I'm in.
2018-2019 Astros Offseason Thread
in Baseball
Posted
You guys are getting me excited with this Harper talk...