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Posts posted by Hank Chinaski
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1 minute ago, satyanash said:
The deal is that it looked awesome.
Really? What specifically looked awesome? There is nothing remotely interesting or unique (about 75% of D-I teams have work an all-black uni) about these, and they do nothing to reinforce Iowa St's brand. They're lame.
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2 hours ago, Dirk X West said:
There's plenty of ways to honor the troops besides gimmicky alternate uniforms.
I have never really understood how alternate uniforms actually "honor" anybody.
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21 hours ago, DanRydell said:
To be clear, while S&P+ has Texas as underdogs in the next 3 games (42.5% vs. OSU, 41.8% vs. WVU, 48.6% vs. Tech), it is not predicting Texas losing 3 in a row as the most likely result. In fact, it has Texas going 2-1 or 3-0 as being more than twice as likely as Texas going 0-3. For the next 3 games, it gives the following probabilities for Texas:
0-3 - 17.2%
1-2 - 41.3%
2-1 - 32.8%
3-0 - 8.6%
I don't think that these probabilities are unreasonable or that the "rankings" themselves are useless...I would just take the precision of these numbers with a grain of salt. Yardage and point differential are blunt instruments over 6 games.
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12 hours ago, Machinator said:
Haha...so, per this guy, Herman's entire recruiting strategy is based on player evaluations made by coaches not on his staff (because he doesn't trust the guys he hired), with whom he does not discuss recruiting, for the sole purpose of damaging the potential of one specific conference foe.
Seems reasonable.
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42 minutes ago, Magus Ossis said:
There are, all told, literally innumerable variables that affect the final outcome of a football game. For someone interested in whether the variables he has identified have some effect on the outcome, developing a model that guesses right 50ish percent of the time is positive but far from definitive evidence. There is 50% difference between blind luck and certainty in predicting winners, and the S&P+ eliminates less than 20% of that uncertainty.
Exactly - the article explaining S&P+ states that the ratings predict outcomes against the spread at a slightly higher 50% rate. These seem to be models designed specifically for betting.
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16 hours ago, AeroHorn said:
Yes, score is very definite on the winner and loser. But that is one data point. To extrapolate, one will add probability to it, which makes the data point fuzzy by a few points (say, one score), which is within our scoring margin. This means that we have been "lucky" falling within the right side of the fuzzy area, and statistically speaking, we are expected to fall on the wrong side of the fuzzy area in the future.
If this happens, S&P would be right. But if we have an uncanny ability to predominantly stay on the right side of the fuzzy area, then there is something to our game plan, style of play, etc. that is outside the norm, and hence be an exception to normative team play.
I know more about baseball than S&P+, but an analogy here could be batting average on balls in play (BABIP) - a hitter's batting average on playable batted balls (so, HR/SF/Ks factored out). Over several years and thousands of players, the norm for BABIP is right around .300.
Now a guy may hit .350 for a month, or half the season...and the .350 represents hits he actually got, that counted. But if his BABIP is at .400 during this period, you can reasonably assume that his performance to date in unsustainable and that he has had some good fortune to get to that .350 mark. Expect regression.
Regarding the highlighted portion though - some guys have a skill that allows them to carry a higher-than-average BABIP and they may be able to sustain it. (Maybe they don't hit many grounders, they hit the ball consistently hard, etc.)
Thing is - this all comes back to sample size. In baseball, you generally get an answer about whether what you're seeing is luck or skill, and it is all considered noise until there is a lot of data to support it. In 6 college football games, I'm not sure how you can get a very clear answer.
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1 hour ago, Hozz said:
This is some baseball level nerd shit. I don't know how it works but when you beat #6 and they stay put while you drop 8 spots, that is clearly retarded. 538 should hire the S&P+ guy, he'd fit right in.
There are 2 big differences between this and baseball stats that immediately jump to mind:
(1) baseball provides very large sample sizes. This S&P+ is going to lack power because it is based on a bunch of teams that have played 6 games. 6. Things like run differential in baseball are pretty good predictors of how good a team actually is, but not after 6 or 12 or 18 games.
(2) strategy in baseball doesn't change with game situations as dramatically as it does in football. In general, the hitter is always trying to hit the ball hard and the pitcher is always trying to get him out. Of course there are times when making contact or pitching around a hitter are prioritized, but that, again, is where the sample size comes in. In football, sometimes the goal is to run clock, sometimes the goal on defense is just to prevent quick scoring, etc.
I'm not saying S&P+ doesn't tell you anything, but it seems more like it is more useful as a betting tool than a "ranking" system in terms of ranking how good the teams actually are.
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13 hours ago, Machinator said:
My man. CDC, never ever let this happen.
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29 minutes ago, slorch said:
Why? It’s an easy win according to Horn fans in this thread...
lol, I haven't considered any upcoming game for Texas an "easy win" in nearly a decade. And there haven't been many.
Certainly Tech, Ok St, WV will be tough; hell people shouldn't be expecting Baylor or ISU to be easy.
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4 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:
Clutch is definitely a thing. In every sport. Its why a journeyman bball player like Robert Horry is better in the playoffs than in the regular season while an all-world scorer like James Harden folds like paper in elimination games.
In baseball, I've often wondered what goes through a hitters head. Down 1, man on base, game 7 of the WS. 9th inning. I'd be nervous as shit. They have to go out there like its just another day at the park. The pitcher too. If you look at last year, a lot of games turned on the Astros being clutch while the other team wasn't. Springer was often hitting like he was taking batting practice.
It may be a thing, but the question is whether past "clutch performance" is predictive of future "clutch" performance. It generally isn't.
Remember when Barry Bonds sucked in the postseason because he wasn't "clutch?"? Then 2002 happened and he hit .356/.581/.978 with 8 HR in 17 games.
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Springer is the key - if he can carry the hot bat into the ALCS, Astros win.
When he is on, he tends to be on.
Should be a good series.
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1 hour ago, Seasick Sailor said:
Really can't be said enough. First time I remember being truly devastated by the result of sporting event.
Haha, me too. I was 9.
And Dykstra was the worst of those guys, to me. Hated that guy. Turns out, he's an actual psychopath.
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Yup - all the Tech throwbacks are great. I really wish they'd ditch the "modern" ones with the awkward stripes on the jersey and the two-tone stripes on the pants.
Literally pick any of the throwbacks they've rolled out the last few years - pick any of them and roll with those full-time.
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1 hour ago, Bill Lumbergh said:
I'm not sure a visiting fan has ever actually done this.
Correct. They're clearly just trolling us at this point, right? Or am I giving them too much credit?
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Well that will work.
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1 hour ago, Scholz said:
It simply doesn't matte what happens in reality. Ever. aggy will find a way to twist into a logic pretzel and mitigate the bad news.
An example, they got pushed around by KSU just 2 years ago. Doesn't matter, KSU's terrible and soft. Because BDF conference. Period.
This, exactly.
We are talking about a group of people who couldn't acknowledge that VY was better than Reggie McNeal (he just had more talent around him) or that Mack Brown was even a decent coach (he could just recruit) or that Colt McCoy was a great QB (we knocked him out of a game once!), etc etc.
I'd say they're an intellectually dishonest bunch but...you know...
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1 hour ago, Randolph Duke said:
Such an avid fan, he makes to see his favorite team play in the most remote and primitive locales. But 30 seconds into a game at Kyle Field and he abandons his lifelong loyalty to his team and becomes one with the ags. And gracious in defeat.
The sad thing is an entire subculture, living mostly in Texas, is so naive they actually believe this bullshit. Think back to the last time Texas played in College Station and remember how "gracious" the aggys fans were.
Primitive cultures are fascinating to study.
If it were anyone other than aggy, I'd have to tip my hat to the hilarious visiting-fan fiction that appears like clockwork every Sunday, because it would very clearly be tongue-in-cheek self-mockery.
But, alas, it's aggy, and although it is fantasy, it isn't a joke.
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10 minutes ago, IDIOTsavant said:
Some people have a dad that took them out for celebratory ice cream after their high school soccer team loses 6-0 to tell them how great they played.
Some people have a dad that wanted to discuss why they swung at that high pitch in dad's pitch little league. Sure, you hit a double, but you homered the other 3 at bats and only won 11-0 in 5 innings. It could've been 4 innings and saved us half an hour if you'd waited for your pitch instead of swinging at that high shit.
And some kids grow up to be well-adjusted, successful adults who realize little league sports don't mean shit, while others go on to blow their heads off in the bathtub because they could never please their fathers...
wait, what are we talking about?
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18 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:
As much as I want to laugh, I can't find fault with it being their biggest win in 2 years.... can't find another bigger
I thought "Kentucky" was a semi-pro basketball team?
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Would be great to wrap this up tomorrow given all the injuries to key guys. Every extra day of rest could be beneficial.
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11 hours ago, Horny04 said:
If anyone was listening to/watching GameDay before the game, they interviewed the midget and asked him how he feels he measures up to other great Texas HS QBs like Brees, Mayfield and manziel. He said he feels like he should be ranked above them. He also said he's used to everyone coming out to watch him, being a big deal, etc. Has no humility whatsoever. Glad he got his comeuppance.
Take the loss, pussy indeed.Maybe I'm projecting here, but I thought about this and...as someone who, as a kid, watched his mother get physically taken apart by cancer and die (and Sam has a similar experience)...when you feel slighted by entitled, arrogant pricks with no humility who have never faced any real adversity in their lives...well, you don't have a lot of patience for that shit, and you don't mind calling them out.
The way that "TTL,P" seemed to just roll of the kid's tongue and come so naturally to him...well, Sam's not suffering fools like Murray.
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20 minutes ago, Fozzz said:
Getting that homer off Bauer was nice. Fuck that piece of shit.
Cherry on top of a great day.
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2 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:
This shit will be hilarious when Kentucky finishes 6-6
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Just now, ajax said:
lol this is sec football
SEC is so obscenely overrated.
Uniform Pron
in Football
Posted
Agree on getting away from the USC look - the white and cardinal in the pic are good (though gold or white pants would look better with the cardinal jersey)...
I'm just not seeing it with the black-and-white. It does nothing to distinguish them in any way. Different strokes, I suppose...