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softlynow

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by softlynow

  1. Donald Trump raped a 13 year old. That needs to be everywhere. It needs to be the first autocomplete in Google, on billboards in every city, in tv ads on every channel, in ads on every social, mentioned by every surrogate at the top of their tv appearance “Thank you for having me, remember Donald Trump raped a 13 year old, now it is very interesting you would say that about excise taxes …” Yes, to independents, this one matters. Donald Trump raped a 13 year old. Also, just go for fucking broke on Project 2025, “Donald Trump wants to end Social Security and Medicare. He wants your taxes to go up. He wants your meds to cost more. He wants to ignore the 3rd Amendment and put troops in your house. and bring back Prima Nocta.” Make them play defense you dumb fuck pussies. Stop whinging and make them afraid of that con man. Make it so the Dem nominee, whether it’s Biden, Harris or Carrot Top, is better for them financially.
  2. Donald Trump is just the man to lead us through the debate over whether we call it the Semiquincentennial, the Bisesquincentennial, the Sestercentennial or the Quarter Millennial. There's nothing he does better than labels and precisely pronouncing complicated words.
  3. That's a glass half-empty (and understandable) take on this tweet. The half-full take is Kamala may be president. Take a moment from doomscrolling and allow yourself to believe, even just to calm the nerves.
  4. Hell, with her you can run Operation Let Trump Speak, just about hide her in Nixon's bowling alley and you've got a shot. Just make sure the public only hears "what can be, unburdened by what has been" a few times. And maybe get Sorkin to write her a half dozen new catch phrases. If she becomes the nominee, what are the odds Drumpf throws out the n-word, maybe just once to test the waters?
  5. There’s only one splash nominee out there, though. Urban Meyer or bust.
  6. Why would that hurt the GQP this time, asks Merrick Garland.
  7. Time to fake invade Albania. Willie's already written a song about it.
  8. The same phenomenon showed up this year when season 4 of The Boys came out. MAGAts suddenly realized they were being skewered. For 3 seasons of relentless lampooning of the right, our lemming neighbors somehow loved the show. Unfortunately, I doubt there will be a politics equivalent to the season 4 Trumpkin entertainment awakening.
  9. If he's not running, it means he knows he's lost the confidence of the people, and that they're right to have lost it. If he's not running, he should resign. On top of that, all the media will talk about for a couple weeks will be Kamala. She will have the stage almost entirely to herself, even putting Trump on the sidelines for a bit (unless that two weeks includes his sentencing, I forgot that date right now). If he's not running, it's the best shot at averting this catasrophe. If he doesn't resign, the convention will be a shitshow. Think 1968, but in the building, not out front. And the result in November will be the same.
  10. The ones who don't have private sector options are probably already in full CYA mode. The best we can hope is that a good portion the military brass and the folks in charge of anything nuclear-related are putting collective interests above their own.
  11. Look at this thread as to why Biden stepping aside would be fun for all, but dangerous for Dems/Democracy. A contested convention would be a live action version of a football game thread with the volume turned up to 11 and the stakes for fucking real. No telling how that shit would go. Contested conventions could be be unpredictable in the era when mass media was the evening newspaper, and now the news is old in 15 minutes, with the added bonus that anyone with a phone could be "reporting" news or simply trying to mislead. You might end up with someone way, way, way off the radar swooping in to take the nomination. It could be Stacey Abrams, Sherrod Brown, AOC, John Cena, Al Franken, or Jimmy Smits. Folks who assume Gavin just strolls in and takes it are delusional. It might be the best cable news TV week of all time. If this is the year we lose democracy, we might as well be entertained. What do you say, Joe?
  12. He ran against a guy vowing to raise taxes (and right when the most self-centered generation was looking to get paid), an economy on the rebound from a quite dismal period, and his party lockstep behind him. Biden does have the opponent whose ceiling does seem to be ~42%, which is nice. But he's facing a press that will not allow people to think this economy is even OK, and is a Democrat, for whom being in lockstep is a rarity, and certainly a longshot this go 'round. We need to accept that we're off the map here. That doesn't mean either course is preferable, it just means, to me, that the predictive value of any previous election is rather thin. About the only thing I agree with, in that regard, is the power of incumbency. I think if Joe wasn't going to seek reelection, he would've said so long before now.
  13. If by "not many" you mean 50-60 million, then you nailed it!
  14. The Courts can restrain, you say? Them and what army?
  15. He's talking about SCOTUS deligitimizing the federal government to the point that only pure power matters. Biden can do what he wants, within the practical limits of his power. He is immune from criminal prosecution for official acts. To the extent that he can direct people to act, he is unrestrained.
  16. Yep. Our little experiment only carries on as long as the people buy in. One half of the electorate was already ready to be done with the republic. 6 justices are trying their best to persuade the other half. Long live King Biden I! He should act like it lest he be responsible for Dotard I.
  17. Some of my clients saw arrest as temporary and desirable a solution to that problem, though those "commitments" were essentially voluntary.
  18. I'm given their name and access to the state's file on day 1. Those with moderated to severe illness are almost always still in jail when I am assigned. I have seen a few of them a couple or many years later. I mostly don't disagree with anything you've said. But I would add that the folks with less severe issues than you describe are also a problem we've decided to mostly ignore, outside of the criminal justice system. One point I take issue with: we DO involuntarily commit. A lot. We just call it "arrest." Then we don't treat them, for the most part. I've had many, many discussions with ADAs and judges about whether any of our very limited mental health resources are available for a client. I'd say less than 5% of the time, it's even a possibility. A tiny portion of that get to treatment. I would guess that 75% of our homeless population has a criminal record, even if we disregard tresspassing convictions, which is really just a Scarlet H.
  19. Swift / Kelce '24 No Travis. Jason.
  20. I'll allow it.
  21. @Dbeasy, now that I'm caught up on the deck chairs arranging that is this homelessness argument, I just gotta say you have been a terrible advocate for this ruling. I think it was correctly decided, but seeing your posts before the ruling, I was initially inclined the other way. JMO, but you could do with some nuance in your argumentation. And you should focus on the actual opinion, not our general policies w/r/t the homeless. The first couple pages of the opinion do a good job of walking one through what should and should not be considered "cruel and unusual." That would've been a better place for you to ground your position. Just a little constructive criticism.
  22. I've represented several dozen formally diagnose as schizoaffective. Several dozen more with other mental illnesses that contributed to anti-social behavior. I was appointed to represent them because they had no money or significant property. And? I think the question is whether they are homeless involuntarily. I'm not aware of people voluntarily becoming schizoaffective. Just want to know where you're going with this.
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