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RayDog

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Posts posted by RayDog

  1. 21 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

    The Mattingly kid on CNN mentioned that they thought there are approx 150k outstanding ballots in Phil County. That doesn't make much sense to me because that would put them at about the same turnout as the last election. 

    Following his discussion I thought there should be 200k. And at an 80/20 split that would be a gain of 120k votes in Philly alone.

  2. 15 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

    Warnock only got like 37% as the only dem on the ballot. In a state about to give 49% to the only dem at the top, and 47%? to the other senate seat dem candidate. 
     

    not sure why so many jumped to one of the R candidates or if he’s likely to draw better or the same vs only 1 R. 

    I just checked and the current percentages add to 48.1% for Democratic candidates and 2.3% for third party candidates in the Georgia special election.  There could be rounding errors that throw off the total. 

    I hope that both go to a runoff since Warnock and Ossoff will pull in voters from across the Democratic coalition. Then we can hope that Trump cultists stay home. 

  3. 1 hour ago, Bama Chick said:

    For the first time ever, the Australian Government is recommending that their citizens should not travel to the USA due to a high probability of election related violence and risk of Covid exposure.

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    Y’all tired of the winning yet?

    Most of the Aussies I have met are Trumpers and would happily join the Republican terrorists. Unfortunately it is mostly low class Aussies where I live.

  4. I will wake up around 5 AM on the 4th (5 PM Eastern on the 3rd) and check online news. Then turn on CNN International when my girlfriend wakes up. Sometime after noon I will head to Tequila Reef where they keep Fox news on all the time where I will drink margaritas and make toasts to our new president elect until they kick me out.

  5. 39 minutes ago, The Dog said:

    Biden has to win Collin County for him to have a chance IMHO (that's Plano for those who don't know).

    If Trump carries that then he wins Texas again. 

    Bullshit.  Collin is likely within 5000 votes one way or the other,  so who wins does not matter. If the margin is bigger than that it will be due to even larger than expected Democratic turnout.

  6. The 11 largest counties lead the total vote percentage with nearly 62% to 38% for the other 243 counties. The turnout in those 11 counties was 10% higher than the others. Those 11 will probably vote for Biden by something close to a 62 to 38 margin, since they were roughly 60/40 for Beto.

  7. 24 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    I think the most amazing part is 96% RV I’m Travis county. Something like that I read earlier. That is incredible. Like I literally can’t believe it. Is it possible that they just never purge the rolls and so the numbers are wrong?  Or is Travis county in its entirety (basically) really registered to vote? 

    They purged the rolls. I was purged and they won't let me register so I can't vote. The next time I am in Austin I hope to sort it out in person.

  8. 1 hour ago, gmr548 said:


    I’m not saying he won’t net. I’m saying doing so doesn’t cut a 700k vote margin in half because you’re not starting from zero. In your aggressive example he’s net an additional 150-200k votes. If we call the margin 500k from Beto to Trump’s 4.7mm, that’s still not half. The math is simple.

    Beto lost by 214k, not 500k. Beto's margin to a conservative estimate of Biden's are

    Harris 200k to 387k, Dallas 240k to 371k, Travis, 240k to 367k, Bexar 109k to 215k, El Paso 100k to 155k, Hidalgo 58k to 107, Fort Bend 31k to 69k.

    Biden wins Texas by over 3%.

     

     

     

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