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RayDog

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Posts posted by RayDog

  1. 39 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


    I mean, Clinton win Harris County by 12. It wouldn’t be going from net zero to net 350k. It would be well less than half of the margin.

    Harris was plus 200k for Beto with much lower turnout.  Biden will net 350k to 400k in Harris based on turnout and estimates based on Beto's percentage. The math is simple. 

  2. 1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

    Oh dammit I fucked that all up. 

    We should have 1.5M Election Day voters in the 15 most populous counties. So roughly 2.2 million in Texas overall, for a final voter turnout in the 11.8 million range.

    Edited the original post above to reflect this correction.

    I have been estimating between 10 and 15% on election day. So assuming 9.6 million after today that would be between 11.3 and 12.2 million. That puts your estimate in the middle.

    I do think the turnout will be higher in Republican counties so using the top 15 estimate could end up being low. 12 million really appears to be a good estimate now. 

  3. Over 3.8 million have voted in NC and Democrats still lead by 7.4% in ballots submitted. There are over a million who did not vote in 2016. With close to 70% of the vote in it is very unlikely that Republicans can win any statewide race there. 

  4. I redid my estimates of the margins in the 11 biggest counties using an estimated total turnout of 20% above the current turnout and the percentage for Biden 2-3% above Beto's percentage in keeping with baseline demographic trends. The Net gain using this conservative measure is 1,740, 361. Beto had a lead of 945K in these counties when he lost by 214k. The extra 800k is more than enough to give Biden the victory and possibly even MJ.

    Harris    71%    60%    1056304    668993    387,311
    Dallas    70%    68%    664748    293271    371,477
    Travis    77%    77%    504399    137,563    366,836
    Bexar    70%    62%    512995    297868    215,127
    El Paso    59%    76%    218674    63300    155,374
    Hidalgo    62%    71%    172241    65500    106,741
    Fort Bend    80%    58%    223390    154062    69,328
    Tarrant    73%    52%    455442    402891    52,551
    Williamson    82%    53%    163195    138562    24,633
    Collin    82%    49%    259310    259310    0
    Denton    80%    48%    216419    225436    -9,017
                        

    I think the actual turnout could be a couple points higher in each county and the swing towards democrats could be higher, particularly in Tarrant, Williamson, Collin, and Denton. 

  5. 22 minutes ago, Helobious said:

    Expect a huge TX turnout on Election Day. Weather looks to be picture perfect across much of the state. 

    How huge? If 20% Show up on election day that would lead to close  to 13 million total. 15% would lead to 12 million. 

  6. 1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

    I heard arguments back in the day regarding online voting is that you should be careful about making voting disproportionately easy. Consider who has easy access to the polls with that change and who still has to work hard. I think there is a little merit to that, although it feels a little kindergartener attitude -- if you don't have enough snacks for everyone, no one can have one.

    Maybe that argument is outdated because of the ubiquity of internet, but maybe not. 

    That is a long way to say we need voter suppression.

  7. 19 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

    Boom

     

    At this rate Travis will have over 550k by Friday which is 64% turnout. In 2018 Travis had 14% turnout on election day, so I imagine Travis counties final turnout will be in the 75-80% range. That should give Biden a net 350,000 votes in Travis alone. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  8. 35 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

    The 4 counties (out of the top 15) that have already reported today's totals had 63,524 in person votes yesterday and 64,445 today. Tarrant, Collin, Hidalgo, and Williamson.

    Well Collin and Hidalgo have already updated their reports on their county sites. Tarrant and Williamson are pulled from their livevoterturnout.com pages.

    Great, that means the total will be close to 8.6 million with 2 days to go in early voting. Assuming a small bump the last two days, 9.5+ million early votes looks fairly certain. 

    I also calculated that as of yesterday 50.31% had turned out in the biggest 11 counties while 45.40 have turned out in the rest, for a nearly 11% advantage in the biggest urban/suburban areas that voted nearly 60/40 for Beto.

    It was a 10% advantage a couple days ago so the big counties are still stretching out their early lead. 

    • Hook 'Em 3
  9. When I analyze the Senate race I start by comparing it to the 2018 governor's race, a 13 point loss. But 2 years is another 2 to 3 point swing or 4 to 6 margin. Then Hegar is a slightly better candidate and Cornyn a slightly worse one for another 2 or 3 points.  Then being a presidential year is another 2 or 3 points. That still leaves Hegar short without an unusually large Democratic turnout advantage.

    Biden has to win Texas by 300,000 for her to have a chance. I did not think that was possible,  as it would take 11.5 to 12 million votes. Election day turnout will probably fall flat for Democrats, as usual, and leave her short. But I hope I am wrong.

  10. 30 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

    My observations of RayDog math is that you need to multiply the numbers by the height of his preferred Filipino female vis a vis a typical western female. So take his numbers and multiply them by 2/3, and you have a more accurate reading of things. 20-25 house spots potentially flipping? Let’s say it would be very very VERY optimistic for 12-17. 
     

    we can do his voter turnout next, but I’m basically pretty confident my scientific explanation is basically full proof. We can dissect more after the elections. 

    Those are Bitecofer's not mine. But I could see 10 of her likely 13,  4 of her 7 leans,  and 6 or 7 of her toss-ups, perhaps a couple more. 

  11. 4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

    What are the latest projections here? This is, like, important.

    I still find Bitecofer's analysis the most interesting, but she over estimates certain Texas seats chances to flip because she groups aggies in with college educated who would otherwise be leaning toward the Democrats. Also what she calls likely or lean is a toss-up to other people. Most of her toss-ups lean R. Based on her analysis and the high turnout so far 20-25 seats could flip to Democrats while they lose only 1 or  2.

    Likely D (R Seats) AZ-6, IN-5, MN-1, MO-2, NE-2, NC-2, NC-6, TX-3, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24, TX-25
    Lean D (R Seats) GA-7, IL-13, NJ-2, OH-1, PA-1, TX-2, TX-10,
    Toss-ups (R Seats) CA-25, CA-50,MI-3, MI-6, MT, NY-1, NY-2, NY-21, NY-24, NC-8, OH-12,TX-6, TX-31, VA-5  
    Toss-ups (D Seats) MN-7, OK-5
    Lean R (R Seats) AK, AR-2, CO-3, FL-15, FL-16, IA-4, OH-10, PA-10, WA-3

    • Hook 'Em 1
  12. 28 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

    Nice job, Texas!
     

     


    I hope this trend is replicated in Alabama and Georgia and Mississippi and South Carolina and North Carolina.

     

    Election project has SC and LA at 30%, GA at 28%, and NC at 20% in early voting.  I assume the black turnout is proportionally  similar in AL and MS. If more white women would vote for their own self interests the old south would flip to the Demiceats with that black turnout. 

  13. Texas is headed toward 9 million plus voting early. If half the older Republican voters waited for election day, Texas will top 11.5 million. If it falls anywhere between 11 and 12 million that means 3 to 4 million who did not vote in 2016 or 2018. Most of those voters voted early and are in Democratic majority counties that went 60/40 for Beto.

  14. 4 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

    Nightly preview/estimate:

    image.png.b6b5be718d387eb697c9d17dab2bf5a9.png

    image.thumb.png.452a8167904de52b4705aefd57fb8d7d.png

    That is amazing since 250k among the top 15 means 400k overall which puts the total at nearly 7.8 million. Breaking 9 million in early voting is looking like a real possibility. Beyond that 11 million plus total after election day looks pretty certain. 

  15. I think Trumpism will still be on the ballot in 2022, since Trump won't stop tweeting and Trumpist candidates will run in big races. Trump may even keep doing rallies for the attention. 2022 will not be the usual midterm. A Trumpist or even a Trump family member could run for the New York Senate, for example, keeping the NYC media talking about Trumpism endlessly.

    In addition to retirements in NC, PA and IA for the Republicans and probably Leahy and on the Democratic side. Murkowski is likely to get primaried making Alaska an essentially open seat. Wisconsin will be tough whether Johnson retires or not. 

    Rubio will likely face a tough race in Florida, and could have a Trumpist primary challenger. If the Republicans win Georgia, that will be a tough race too. If Abrams runs for Governor again at the top of the state ticket that could be quite a race for both Governor and Senate.

    Ohio could have a close race with the right Democratic candidate. Missouri was within 3% in 2016 in a Republican wave year, so again the right candidate could make it a race. Young only had 52% of the vote in Indiana last time, and there are rumors that Buttigieg could run there if he does not get a role in the Biden administration.. 

    I expect Rand Paul will get a primary challenge, which will add to the money drain. And there might be a vote on McConnell's replacement, if he does not make it.

    2022 is going to be tough on the Republicans. We may even add Puerto Rico into the mix by then.

  16. I noticed that as of Sunday morning the biggest 11 counties had a 44.1% turnout while the remaining counties had a 40.1% turnout for a 10% advantage among the biggest, primarily Democratic counties. In 2016 those 11 counties had a 2.7% advantage at the end. Of course, Republicans will think they will make it up on election day and perhaps they will.

  17. 7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

    I was at the 57 mark for EV a couple of days ago, but I’m thinking there will be lower than expected election day turnout as the higher EV turnout is more of a shift to early voting than a true increase of high magnitude. I’m thinking 65% max. Would be cool if you were right, other than the idea that day of turnout will trend trump.  

    In the past Republicans have been capped at 4.7 million votes. So even if half of them waited and no Democrats did it would still be 2.35 million or about 14% of 16.9 million. I think the actually lower limit for election day turnout is closer to 20%.

  18. The biggest 11 counties are at about 44.5% based on those estimates and within reach of 46.0% in 24 hours. Then conservatively the could add 2% a day M-W and 3% Th & Fr to reach 58% in early voting or perhaps match 2016s percentage for the full election. 

    From there it seems likely they will top 70% on election day. 75% might be in reach.

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