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936horn

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Posts posted by 936horn

  1. 27 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

    If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your supporters instead of people suffering from lupus.

    Cmon man take that shit to CR

    • Like 4
  2. 40 minutes ago, Blotto said:

     

    As I understand it, USO rolls out of the front month futures contracts that they hold over 4 days according to a schedule they publish: 

    image.png.afc0722d17bf47978ee2b39bf0f186b2.png 

    So while I'm sure there were people holding these contracts late in the game, it wasn't USO. And the fact that it only fell 11% today would be evidence that they werent caught with the May contracts.  Also due to the huge inflow of money into the ETF, they just changed their structure to hold 80% of the front month contract and 20% of the next. That shift announced a couple of weeks ago, is what enabled them to get under the 20%. I would assume that USO started the day with 80% in June contracts and 20% in July.

    I'm just getting started digging into this, as I expect there have to  be some profitable,  albeit counter-intuitive angles here. One strange thing I noticed after the close today is that OTM calls on USO actually closed up decently once you go out a few weeks. I realize USO is not your typical stock, or even ETF, but I'm not sure I can recall something like this: 

    image.png.fa969773f83acff3cd71f7ccf5fbf830.png

    I stand corrected - rep to you and gsoda. I am digging in further as well, as even with the profound demand destruction I just cannot accept that every trader woke up today and finally realized "well, nobody is gonna buy this shit so I better dump two days before expiry." This has been in front of every trader's face for a month now. The exchange glitches definitely contributed. This will be a hell of a case study one day.

  3. 52 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

    Some groups made some huge mistakes today, or really over the course of April. WTI already back to +$2.20. Best I can tell these groups entered into May futures contracts with no way of physically delivering oil and were forced to sell at significant losses - because they didn’t sell earlier in April. I don’t think the volume was great, either, on the way to the earlier settlement of -$37.63. Wow. Maybe Trey can explain more but that’s my understanding of this. 

    I would not expect this to recur next month toward the end of the June contract. Rather, I would expect selling to occur throughout the month, and it started today for June, and WTI is to gradually go down from the current June price of $21.37.

    I just cannot fathom the kinds of mistakes that were made to drop the price to fucking negative $40. 

    Couple things happened today - 

    1. As of last week, the etf USO held approx 25% of May contracts. An ETF can't take delivery of oil, obviously. Someone somewhere lost their job over this, probably multiple people. Since expiry is tomorrow USO was unwinding into a long squeeze and just getting donkey dicked. This move was not organic and suddenly every trader in the world woke up today and finally realized there is no demand and no storage.

    2. Concurrently, both our brokers, CME and Barclays were unable to execute buy orders at negative values. The software was not programmed on EITHER EXCHANGE to allow purchases for negative values. So in the span of 15 minutes or so I watched the price freefall once it broke zero down to -$35. I have to imagine that problem was not limited to our brokers. There will be massive lawsuits after this.

    Just for funzies i have a picture of my screen when the spreads were >$60 and flat price was -$35. Maybe I'll get it framed once this shit is over.

    GgsNont.jpg

    • Like 6
  4. Better off really. I am lucky to work at a good company with a solid balance sheet in the midstream sector. I actually just got a raise Apr 1, but I am aware this is not most people's experience so for that I am thankful. Not eligible for the stimulus but again, thankful for that really. I am glad people who need it are getting it.

    Another positive for me is that while my 401k is down about 15% YTD, my brokerage and other accounts including an old Roth IRA are humming nicely and are more than making up for it. Being at home all day has given me a chance to have a second career as a day trader. Just between Monday and Thursday of this week I was able to nab >350% profit off AMZN calls. Up until the last week or two, this was one of the most predictable markets and riding the up trends with calls and down trends with puts has added a good amount to my non-401k accounts.

    Finally, I am really enjoying being home with the family. My daughter pops her head in my office a few times a day and comes to see what I am doing. It's a nice distraction.

    • Like 1
    • Fuck You 1
  5. If you needed any more proof that the market gives zero shits about regular Joe American, this is it. Record unemployment, earnings in the shitter, still in the middle of a global pandemic, and we just keep pumping. The market cares not about Jim Bob in Arkansas on furlough, or Cindy from Texas who is in ICU with corona. Hell, the market doesn't even care about us surly .001%ers. It cares about the institutional guys and how many trillions the fed can pump in and that's it.

    • Like 1
  6. Just now, Wally Fairway said:

    thanks - looks like the market is going to digest that and keep on moving with the downward momentum...at least until something related to the virus or economic downturn happens - the Fed is just propping up the banks (right?)

    Yes, but if they do cut to 0% as Fozz linked above, puts are gonna get smashed, especially close dated ones. I just unloaded most of my 3/20 SPYp right as the repo was announced.

  7. So my SPY 250 3/20 puts have basically doubled since I bought in. Same with 22p 3/20 CCL, I don't want to be greedy...might take some off the table before close today

     

    edit: i too have become addicted to options.

  8. 4 hours ago, dad said:

    To the ignorant stock newb me... options trading seems like trying to win a parlay ... most likely to lose all of your money. 

    I mean, it can be - for example if you are selling naked options you could lose many many many times your initial investment. However, if you use them intelligently and responsibly, they can often act as a hedge to protect yourself from wild market swings and capture a defined return during those swings.

  9. 1 minute ago, Wally Fairway said:

    That's true - maybe it is just unfamiliarity with the tools on E*Trade, but if you want to understand options here is a good place to start.
    https://www.investopedia.com/options-basics-tutorial-4583012


    I read up for at least 6 months, and found a trial platform where you could buy/sell and track "pretend" transactions to get the feel.  
    You really need to understand the dymanic that you are dealing with because these can quickly become worthless....all that said I am breathing deeply and considering making my biggest "investment" ever in options by 4pm today

    Agreed, I did lots of reading before ever trying to trade options. I will say, you had some good advice above though. If someone wanted to jump in with "limited" risk (i.e. not infinite downside risk) then you could buy near money puts and calls. If the market pops one way or the other Monday, one of your positions is worthless and you lose the investment (but not infinite losses) and your other one should make up for it and then some.

  10. Wife says she looked down for one second and rear-ended a 20-something girl in a parking lot this morning. No damage to my wife's car, only slight dent to the bumper of other girl's car. The girl was late for work so my wife took pics and gave the girl her number. I'd like to probably just pay her to either go away or repair it out of pocket instead of getting raped via insurance. Is there any way I can protect myself from this girl taking cash and getting it fixed and filing an insurance claim at the same time?

    Also, no pics of wife, sorry.

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