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Welch

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Posts posted by Welch

  1. Per this covidestim link that I think someone here posted a few days ago, it seems like San Antonio and Corpus are on a nice decline (with surprisingly low R numbers) and Austin seems to have peaked within the last few days.

    Dallas, Houston, and Waco are still on the incline in cases, but the R numbers are falling.

    Fort Worth seems to be in the worst shape, as it's the only big city with R increasing.

    • Fuck You 1
  2. Yeah, my hat’s off to NHC for the way they handled Laura last year.  
     

    There were a lot of people pushing that track towards Beaumont or even farther west, but NHC stuck with Lake Charles and ended up splitting the uprights Justin Tucker-style.

    • Hook 'Em 2
  3. Thinking of making a first-ever trip to the McDonald Observatory this summer, but it looks like the Star Parties are basically sold out through late August.

    They do have “Evening Sky Viewing” spots available, which seems to be the same thing minus the telescopes.

    Any recommendations?  Are the Viewings worthwhile or should I just wait for Star Party slots to open up?

  4. 1 hour ago, Patrick Bateman said:

    Yea, different strategies fo sho.  Houston's blowing it up, trading everyone they can and looking to gather assets whether it be draft picks, cap space, or younger, undervalued players.  It'll be interesting to see how each executes their different plans.  

    I get it, and as an Astros fan like Kermit I can definitely see how a total teardown can lead to an era of success, but put me down for the Spurs’ method 10 times out of 10 in the NBA.

    Even being in a destination market and having tons of draft assets doesn’t necessarily result in titles (Boston and New York say hi), so I’ve come to the point where I’m thrilled the Spurs have opted for the “stay good and see what happens” model.

  5. Number of Senate Democrats who crossed the aisle to help the American people by supporting the $1.9T CARES Act in 2020 when Republicans held the White House: 47

     

    Number of Senate Republicans who crossed the aisle to help the American people by supporting Biden’s $1.9T Covid bill in 2021 when Dems held the White House: 0

     

    BUT UNITY!!! 

    • Like 2
    • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
  6. 3 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

    Anyone hear from fisterman?

    You know, I think he’s gonna wake up and realize he no longer has a brother, and he no longer has any friends, and I’m gonna be standing front and center, just laughing my fucking head off.

    • Hook 'Em 2
  7. 1 minute ago, TexasEd said:

    Some of the Provisionals will be disallowed if the mail in ballot was received and counted or for other reasons.  Not all of them will be counted.

    Likely the #1 reason for provisional is the voter did not receive absentee ballot in time or did not mail it in time.  Again the mail in ballots went to Biden by a higher margin everywhere.

     

    Fair enough.  Just seems like a heavy lift.  If there are, say, 60k allowable provisionals, Biden would need to win those 65%-35% to pick up a net gain of 18k and increase his total lead to ~33k.

    Any fewer allowable would mean he’d need to win an even larger percentage.

    I did hear that 40% of them are from Philly, so that’ll help.  I’m just skeptical.

  8. Given how few PA ballots were announced today, I’m assuming that we’re fully into provisionals now (and mostly done with the mail-ins).

    If it’s true that the provisional breakdown generally aligns with the counties overall, and the two candidates are basically running 49%-49% across the state, how are we expecting this lead to grow to over 30k?  Wouldn’t it basically stay where it is, ~15k, or increase just slightly?

    What am I missing that’s going to put Biden over +33k or whatever and allow AP to call the race?

  9. Made the trek out to the AT&T Center yesterday, mainly to thank the players for ignoring the “shut up and dribble” mouthbreathers and encouraging people to vote.

    Probably 50 people in line ahead of me, but it took maybe five minutes to get through that line and another five minutes to vote.

    Almost a festive environment too.  When I was at the voting machine, I was startled by one of the poll workers across the room yelling, “FIRST TIME VOTER!!!” and then everyone in the room cheering for that person.

    Have never heard that before, but maybe that’s because I usually vote with the olds out in the suburbs.

    • Hook 'Em 3
    • Like 1
  10. 20 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

    The more appropriate question is, "what are you doing listening to aggy weathermen?"

    But like stopped clocks twice a day, even an aggy can be right.  Now, something to waste your time reading while we're sitting around waiting to get hurricaned; this thought, stemmed by Rita and now Laura:

    Why I Can Get Fershimmeled About A Hurricane in Austin

    Generally of course we don't think of Austin as particularly vulnerable to hurricanes or tropical storms; it lies well inside the state, 200 miles from the coast, no less inland than say Atlanta, Pittsburgh or Syracuse NY.  For the most part, the great number of hurricanes lose their hurricane strength once about 50-60 miles inland, and even TS strength about 100 miles.  So you'd think that Austin isn't a big deal for hurricane damage.  Of course the flooding risk is more likely, but for the most part, hurricanes aren't linked to major damage in our inland Texas cities, so this lack of concern are generally valid.

    However, there is a scenario where this isn't true.  And Rita was almost one of them.

    Rita formed in mid-September 2006, and churned a NW path up the Gulf, during which time it became, and still is, the most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Gulf.  And it was at its peak strength for 18 hours, getting to within 300 miles of the Mississippi Delta before it weakened.  It finally hit land as a strong Cat 3 - still enough to be one of the most damaging storms (on the heels of Katrina a month later, no less) in W Louisiana especially, despite hitting in a fairly non-populated area (and a little too far W of NOLA to revisit it with Katrina-level damage).

    At the time I didn't pay much attention to it, but 2 things began to bother me:  first, it was barreling up the Gulf at a pretty good clip - about 17 mph as it neared land.  The second thing was its track - straight up towards Corpus with a (possible run up I-37 and turning west of Austin, putting the city in its eastern flank.

    What concerned me is that under the right conditions, if a major Cat 5, moving inland at 15-20 mph were to bullseye Austin, even by the time it got the 200 miles inland, it would still be a hurricane with 90-100 mph sustained winds.  In a city like Austin which is not built with hurricane winds in mind, the damage would be significant.  The thought of 90 mph winds slamming against my house for 8-9 hours wasn't a pleasant thought (though I'm sure our resident roofer would be in hog heaven).  I briefly thought about moving SE to hole up for an evening with the family believe it or not.  For just a few hours it looked like Rita could be "one of those."

    However, Rita took the now-too-familiar "right turn at Albuquerque" and actually went NE into far E Texas and W Louisiana.  And again, when it did, it "weakened" to a Cat 3, but of course one with 115-120 mph winds - still a major 'cane ("Devastating" on the Safford-Simpson Scale).  And it was.  And Ike did almost the same thing only 3 years later - tantalizingly teasing Austin with the threat of a damaging storm - but then even making a harder right (almost 90°!) just before land, and you know what it did to High Island and the Bolivar Peninsula (and a good chunk of Galveston despite it being just east of the city).  Harvey of course was a major flooding concern for Austin (again it sort of stopped with the huge rains as close as Bastrop but turned NE finally after its crazy track - but the winds weren't going to be a problem).

    Now the odds of this "perfect storm" for Austin are relatively low.  First, it has to have a good "head start" by being a Cat 5 or high Cat 4.  Anything less it will still pack a punch but not to this degree.  Second, the track has to be such that it crosses the least mileage of land into Austin -  of course this is straight up 37 from Corpus.  Third, it would have to turn north after it got west of town - any earlier and Austin would be on its west side - still potent if a weakening Cat 5 but not like the eastern side.  And fourth, it would have to maintain or pick up speed (which most hurricanes do when finally over land - the land acts as a "grip" and pushes the hurricane faster, kind of like getting a push from behind on a swing).  Most hurricanes are going to weaken before landfall due to some of it being over land and disrupting the flow of the storm, even before the eye gets over land - which is its real killer, and near land air currents are often more pronounced which can shear it, not to mention the pulling in of drier air near land.  

    But it's possible - the nightmare scenario is a strong Cat 4 getting near Corpus moving about 12-15 mph, hitting some warm water in the current which is just off the Texas coast, with calm weather on land, and ramping up to 17-20 mph as it strengthens to a 5, then accelerating to 20-25 mph west of Austin and turning north. 

    Generally I don't worry too much about that scenario, as it's pretty remote.  But that one day in 2005 I got a little concerned, and always keep an eye out for the "perfect storm" in Austin.  I would imagine it's happened in geological history, and could again.  Nothing to lose sleep over - but  - <cue scary sci-fi music>) never say never!

    I’ve been worried about this for a while.  Back in 2010, Hermine wasn’t even a hurricane when it made landfall near Brownsville... but it ended up passing directly over us in San Antonio and even those winds were memorable.

    All the talking heads on TV have been patting themselves on the back all week, telling us that Laura won’t be another Harvey.  I mean, that’s true... but it fails to mention that hurricane-level winds are possible as far inland as Lufkin and Alexandria.  That’s a big deal.

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